Australian Politics Forum - Why is climate science so resilient?

lee

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Re: Why is climate science so resilient?
Reply #210 - Mar 30^th, 2017 at 9:14pm

Jovial Monk wrote on Mar 30^th, 2017 at 9:06pm:

That 1°C has caused wildfire season to be extended, created more severe weather extremes and problems with precipitation and droughts.

What will another 0.5°C bring? We shall find out, I fear.

Yeah Your favourite role. Assertions without evidence don't cut it. Wink

Has it never happened before? Is it unprecedented?

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Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 51474 Gender:	Re: Why is climate science so resilient? Reply #211 - Mar 30^th, 2017 at 9:21pm What do you reckon another .5°C warming will bring, Lees?
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lee

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Re: Why is climate science so resilient?
Reply #212 - Mar 30^th, 2017 at 9:26pm

Jovial Monk wrote on Mar 30^th, 2017 at 9:21pm:

What do you reckon another .5°C warming will bring, Lees?

More of the same - Droughts, floods, extreme weather. With emphasis on "the same", Not increasing extreme weather, increasing floods, increasing droughts.

BTW- did you hear about the much hyped 200 year drought in California? It got called off after 5 years. So much for the climate science. Wink

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Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 51474 Gender:	Re: Why is climate science so resilient? Reply #213 - Mar 30^th, 2017 at 9:36pm No, I think another 0.5°C warming will not be much fun at all.
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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21541 Gender:	Re: Why is climate science so resilient? Reply #214 - Mar 30^th, 2017 at 9:56pm Jovial Monk wrote on Mar 30^th, 2017 at 9:36pm: No, I think another 0.5°C warming will not be much fun at all. That's ok, you can be scared for the rest of your life.
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Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 51474 Gender:	Re: Why is climate science so resilient? Reply #215 - Mar 30^th, 2017 at 10:33pm Yeah, you might be scared, hence the denialism. I believe in looking even unpleasant facts in the face. Another .5°C warming will not be fun at all.
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lee

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Re: Why is climate science so resilient?
Reply #216 - Mar 31^st, 2017 at 10:04am

Jovial Monk wrote on Mar 30^th, 2017 at 10:33pm:

Yeah, you might be scared, hence the denialism.

I believe in looking even unpleasant facts in the face.

Another .5°C warming will not be fun at all.

I suggest you look at the paper by the "father of Global Warming".

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~davidc/ATMS211/articles_optional/Hansen81_CO2_I...

Specifically figure 3. page 5 and the text.

“A remarkable conclusion from Fig. 3 is that the global mean temperature is almost as high today as it was in 1940.”

A copy -

Now compare to current -

1940 is now nowhwere near as warm as 1980, curious eh?

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Jovial Monk

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Re: Why is climate science so resilient?
Reply #217 - Mar 31^st, 2017 at 10:14am

Weather record is very noisy.

However, despite that, the globe is clearly warming more and faster than in a long time.

What do you reckon another .5°C rise might do, Lees?

Wildfires even bigger, more destructive and more frequent any time outside the wet months?

The BoM has found that the southern half of the continent is drying and warming.

Seas will warm and expand causing more and more sea level rises. Greenland and Antarctica land ice will melt even faster.

More and more evaporation from dams and resevoirs, more soil erosion in longer dry periods, desertification

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lee

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Re: Why is climate science so resilient?
Reply #218 - Mar 31^st, 2017 at 3:55pm

Jovial Monk wrote on Mar 31^st, 2017 at 10:14am:

Weather record is very noisy.

However, despite that, the globe is clearly warming more and faster than in a long time.

What do you reckon another .5°C rise might do, Lees?

Wildfires even bigger, more destructive and more frequent any time outside the wet months?

The BoM has found that the southern half of the continent is drying and warming.

Seas will warm and expand causing more and more sea level rises. Greenland and Antarctica land ice will melt even faster.

More and more evaporation from dams and resevoirs, more soil erosion in longer dry periods, desertification

All based on predictions. Nothing has been observed.

Why has 1940 got cooler compared to 1980? I thought this was supposed to be science.

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Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 51474 Gender:	Re: Why is climate science so resilient? Reply #219 - Mar 31^st, 2017 at 5:12pm Running away from thinking about another .5°C temperature rise. If Trumpy and his cronies manage to really wind back all climate action we might see an additional 1°C warming. Lucky us.
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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21541 Gender:	Re: Why is climate science so resilient? Reply #220 - Mar 31^st, 2017 at 7:29pm Jovial Monk wrote on Mar 31^st, 2017 at 5:12pm: Running away from thinking about another .5°C temperature rise. If Trumpy and his cronies manage to really wind back all climate action we might see an additional 1°C warming. Lucky us. Yeah. Only in your dreams/fantasies.
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Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 51474 Gender:	Re: Why is climate science so resilient? Reply #221 - Mar 31^st, 2017 at 7:49pm So you are too scared to think of consequences. Noted.
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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21541 Gender:	Re: Why is climate science so resilient? Reply #222 - Mar 31^st, 2017 at 7:59pm Jovial Monk wrote on Mar 31^st, 2017 at 7:49pm: So you are too scared to think of consequences. Noted. Nope. Your just verbalising your fears.
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Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 51474 Gender:	Re: Why is climate science so resilient? Reply #223 - Mar 31^st, 2017 at 8:17pm Whatever, keep ducking and diving. My next birthday is my 70th and I am moving to the south of Tassie soon so AGW will likely not bother me much personally. But there I those I love who are young enough to be greatly affected by it.
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lee

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Re: Why is climate science so resilient?
Reply #224 - Mar 31^st, 2017 at 10:01pm

Jovial Monk wrote on Mar 31^st, 2017 at 8:17pm:

Whatever, keep ducking and diving. My next birthday is my 70th and I am moving to the south of Tassie soon so AGW will likely not bother me much personally.

But there I those I love who are young enough to be greatly affected by it.

So we are of similar age? Tassie is nice. Cold in winter though.

As to those young enough to be affected by AGW - only if ALL the predictions, projections, whatever the term du jour of the climate models come true. And seeing how they have to rely on a mean of all climate models, none are close to accurate. Of course with the plethora of assumptions (parameters), they are not likely to get close.

"With four parameters I can fit an elephant, and with five I can make him wiggle his trunk."

Attributed to von Neumann by Enrico Fermi, as quoted by Freeman Dyson in "A meeting with Enrico Fermi" in Nature 427 (22 January 2004) p. 297

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