The West’s sights are now clearly set on Iran
18 Mar, 2017


The British-US plan to weaken Iran via the proxy war on Syria has spectacularly backfired. Now they are more desperate than ever to bring Iran to its knees.
Western think tanks and ‘strategic institutes’ have been getting themselves in a cold sweat about Iranian influence for some time. In 2012, Frederick Kagan (former Bush advisor and Project for a New American Century neo-con) co-authored a report for the Institute for the Study of War warning “the US and its allies and partners in the region and beyond must not only understand Iran’s regional strategy and influence but also develop a coherent strategy of their own with which to confront them. Considering the religious, economic, political and diplomatic power of the two sides, it is simply unacceptable for the US and its allies to allow even such progress as it has [already] made in these realms." Since Kagan made those comments four years ago, Iran’s “unacceptable...progress” has continued apace.
Its military cooperation with Russia, Syria, Iraq and Hezbollah has developed into an increasingly formalized alliance (the so-called “4+1”), in which it played a leading role in the liberation of the Syrian city of Aleppo earlier this year. In Iraq, the Shi’ite militias it sponsors have been the indispensable vanguard of many of the battles against Islamic State, and it wields considerable influence over the rebel forces in both Bahrain and (supposedly) Yemen. The fall of Mosul will only consolidate this power.
Indeed, according to the Guardian, the territory west of Mosul that is currently being secured by the Iranian-backed Popular Mobilization forces is one of the final pieces of a jigsaw completing an arc of influence stretching all the way from Tehran to the Mediterranean. Such a ‘land bridge’ to the Mediterranean would significantly strengthen Iran’s independence and ability to withstand, for example, any future blockades or sieges. This is making Western planners particularly nervous, as it significantly weakens the West’s ability to control and corral the Iranians; with a long time Centcom advisor Ali Khedery, for example, claiming that such a development “should trouble every Western leader and our regional allies because this will further embolden Iran.”

Forbes, meanwhile, wrote that “Iranian influence in Iraq has the potential to destabilize global oil policy and the global oil market” given that the two countries combined oil reserves almost equal those of Saudi Arabia.
For here, as ever, lies the empire’s real fear - that the people of the Middle East might actually gain control over their own resources, and start using them strategically for their own development. Genuine independence has always been the fear of the region’s British, US and Israeli overlords. And Iran’s potential makes this independence a greater threat than most.
The Foreign Affairs Committee of the British House of Commons spelled this out in a report in 2014: “Iran has the potential to be a major international power… it could be the “engine room” of the Middle East. It lies in a very significant strategic position, with Iraq to the west, former Soviet states to the north which have only relatively recently gained independence, Afghanistan, and Pakistan to the east and the Persian Gulf—a prime route for oil exports—to the south. It has a large and youthful population—75 million or more, of whom 55 percent are aged under 30. Iran ranks 76th out of the 187 countries classified under the UNDP Human Development Index, based upon assessments of life expectancy, access to knowledge and standard of living, placing it higher than any of its land neighbors. Youth literacy is near-universal. The country’s economy is relatively diverse, with supplies of essential commodities and an engineering, research and manufacturing base. Iran has substantial resources of natural gas (second only to the Russian Federation) and enough oil to enable it to be a leading exporter.”
“Unacceptable progress” indeed!
Clearly, the US has been rattled by Iran for some time. Contrary to Trump’s assertions, for example, the Iranian ‘nuclear deal’ was less a ‘gift’ to Iran than a changing of tack to a longer game allowing the West to cultivate a fifth column in the country in preparation for a future attack.
Yet, US belligerence has apparently been stepped up under Trump, with new sanctions, an enormous ramping up of hostile rhetoric and the dispatch of another warship to Iran’s borders in January following an entirely legal Iranian missile test.

KSA is the issue.
Nuke them

"These gangs are Sunni Muslims, not Shias, as we have in Iran. They have become extremists because of Wahabi propaganda from Saudi Arabia – look at the attacks on the journalists on that magazine [Charlie Hebdo] and then the terrible massacre a few months ago. My brother is active in the Jewish groups in his area, so I need to disguise his identity. They have to organise security patrols to protect their synagogues, even their homes, every day and night."

Netanyahu visited France after the Charlie Hebdo murders. I watched and listened at the Grand Synagogue in Paris as he urged Jews to emigrate to Israel: France, and Western Europe, he warned, was unsafe for them. The invitation was strongly criticised by the French government. Manuel Valls, the Prime Minister – whose wife, the violinist Anne Gravoin, is Jewish – stated: "France without Jews is not France… If 100,000 Jews leave, the Republic will be judged a failure."

Nonetheless, there has been a significant rise in emigration to Israel, sharply accelerated after last November's Paris attacks. Revisiting the Grand Synagogue at the time, I found the mood ever more pessimistic. The general view was that there will be further terrible attacks. On a recent visit to Israel I came across estate agents in Tel Aviv specialising in properties for French and other Western European Jews who are on their way. But Arik wants to point out that Israel is hardly a safe place. "My brother is thinking of leaving France. I ask him: 'Why go to Israel?' They have wars in Gaza regularly, and there are killings every week with the stabbings and shootings. I have asked him to come here. There are good Jewish schools for the children, there are synagogues and there will also be lots of business opportunities with the sanctions being lifted."

Arik, in a shiny grey suit, with his thick black hair slicked back, is at the Espinas to pursue these opportunities, meeting foreign businessmen who are now steadily beating a path to Tehran. (Last month, there were seven foreign commercial delegations at the hotel just in the 10 days I stayed there covering the elections.) His business aims, however, are not in his trade. "I've got some money saved and I'm thinking about investing in tourism. Why not? Foreign tourists aren't going to Egypt, Tunisia or Turkey because of terrorist attacks. Iran is a very safe place, we don't have terrorist attacks. Sure, we need to invest in infrastructure, but there is so much to see here; so much history – Jewish history as well, we have been here for centuries."

There are different chronologies of the Jewish presence in what is now Iran. It began, it is believed, in 722BC, when the Assyrian king Shalmaneser V conquered Israel and sent the 10 "lost tribes" into exile. There was another wave in 586BC, when the people of Judaea were expelled by the Babylonians. An exodus to Israel took place when the Jewish state was created in 1947 – but more than 100,000 were still there during the Shah's rule in the 1970s. At the time, Iran, seen as an anti-Communist bulwark by the West, had close relations with Israel, especially in the field of security, with Mossad helping to set up Savak, the Shah's secret police, which became notorious for human-rights abuses.

Israel sold $75m of weapons to Iran during the war with Iraq. Iran, in turn, supplied Israel with a sizeable portion of its oil needs following the Six Day War: Iranian oil was shipped to European markets through the jointly run Eilat Ashkelon pipeline. El Al flew direct flights between Tel Aviv and Tehran. The Jewish community was secure and prosperous. And while, as discontent spread against the Shah, there were accusations of complicity with the government levelled against some prominent Jewish figures by the opposition, several thousand politically active members of the community took part in the protests – many being arrested by the security forces.

After the 1979 revolution and the return of Ayatollah Khomeini, Iran broke off all diplomatic and commercial ties with Israel. The Israeli embassy building in Tehran was handed over to the Palestine Liberation Organisation. Israel refused to pay back money it owed Iran from the pipeline venture and still refuses to do so. Even though, in May last year, a European court ordered that $1.1bn should be repaid, Netanyahu's government rejected the judgment, saying it considered Iran an enemy state.

Some Jewish activists were arrested after the revolution, this time by the newly founded Islamic Republic. Then an event occurred that sent a shockwave through the community. Habib Elghanian, a well-known Jewish industrialist, was arrested on charges of spying for Israel. He was convicted after a swift trial and placed before a firing squad. An emergency meeting was held by the elders. Two rabbis and four young political activists set off from Tehran for Qom, the centre of Iranian Shia theocracy, to see Ayatollah Khomeini, and there was trepidation about how the Supreme Leader would react. But in the event, after a long meeting followed by dinner, the Ayatollah proclaimed that as a "people of the book" and loyal Iranians rather than Iranian Zionists, the Jews were welcome to stay in the country.