Australian Politics Forum - Tired of stupid AGW denialism?

Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 51474 Gender:	Re: Tired of stupid AGW denialism? Reply #60 - Mar 21^st, 2017 at 3:13pm All that is answered in the paper I quoted.
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lee

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Re: Tired of stupid AGW denialism?
Reply #61 - Mar 21^st, 2017 at 3:55pm

Jovial Monk wrote on Mar 21^st, 2017 at 8:15am:

So now to calculate the change in temperature, we just need to know the climate sensitivity. Studies have given a possible range of values of 2-4.5°C warming for a doubling of CO2 (IPCC 2007). Using these values it's a simple task to put the climate sensitivity into the units we need, using the formulas above:

"For the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), the ECS estimate was revised, reducing the lower limit of the likely range to 1.5°C, with no best estimate given."

And remember we're talking about doubling from 278ppm to 566ppm.

Your figures are all over the shop.

"Fortunately, the negative and positive forcings are roughly equal and cancel each other out,"

And of course they provide empirical evidence? /sarc.

Jovial Monk wrote on Mar 21^st, 2017 at 8:26am:

and the natural forcings over the past half century have also been approximately zero (Meehl 2004

So the CSIRO lied about greening of the deserts. For shame. Wink

Jovial Monk wrote on Mar 21^st, 2017 at 8:26am:

If we were to get massive “burps” of methane—a VERY powerful GHG, just look at the spectrometry graphs—as the tundra melts then methane forcing will also force warming.

What about the termites, the largest methane producers on the planet. Where did they account for them?

BTW - with your lovely greenhouse that warms, how much does the CO2 increase to give that warming. Wink

Jovial Monk wrote on Mar 21^st, 2017 at 10:36am:

Quote:
Around 80 per cent of the additional energy accumulated by the climate system is accounted for by the warming of the upper 2000 m of the ocean.

But don't they adjust the buoys because they have a "cool bias"? Cheesy

Jovial Monk wrote on Mar 21^st, 2017 at 10:36am:

So most of the extra warming goes into the sea. No wonder sea ice extent is decreasing.

But according to Trenberth it is going into the deep ocean, and will one day come back to bite us on the bum. Who knew the sea ice went that deep? Wink

Jovial Monk wrote on Mar 21^st, 2017 at 8:26am:

Quote:
Figure 3: Time series of anthropogenic and natural forcings contributions to total simulated and observed global temperature change. The coloured shadings denote the 5-95% uncertainty range.

5–95% confidence. Hmmmm must be a two tailed test, eh Lees? Wink

Are you sure 5-95% uncertainty range equates to 5-95% confidence? If so would you rely on a test being true if you only had 5% confidence?

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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21502 Gender:	Re: Tired of stupid AGW denialism? Reply #62 - Mar 21^st, 2017 at 4:10pm Oh noes. JM quotes a cartoonist about AGW.
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Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 51474 Gender:	Re: Tired of stupid AGW denialism? Reply #63 - Mar 21^st, 2017 at 4:19pm Poor Lees. Better read more into Statistics for Dummies (was it the word Dummies attracted you Lees?) about two tailed tests.
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lee

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Re: Tired of stupid AGW denialism?
Reply #64 - Mar 21^st, 2017 at 4:38pm

You still haven't answered how much extra CO2 was pumped into your greenhouse to get the rise in temperature.

What about the study that proves a random re-emmision of CO2 WILL have "at least half" directed downward?

Jovial Monk wrote on Mar 21^st, 2017 at 10:36am:

Quote:
Around 80 per cent of the additional energy accumulated by the climate system is accounted for by the warming of the upper 2000 m of the ocean. At least 75 per cent of the ocean warming occurred in the southern hemisphere, predominantly between latitudes 30° S and 50° S.

So most of the global warming is occurring in the Southern Hemisphere?

Really?

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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21502 Gender:	Re: Tired of stupid AGW denialism? Reply #65 - Mar 21^st, 2017 at 4:40pm Jovial Monk wrote on Mar 21^st, 2017 at 4:19pm: Poor Lees. Better read more into Statistics for Dummies (was it the word Dummies attracted you Lees?) about two tailed tests. It was the only one I was marginally sure you might understand.
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Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 51474 Gender:	Re: Tired of stupid AGW denialism? Reply #66 - Mar 21^st, 2017 at 4:42pm Can’t you work out why absorption/re-emission of IR means at least half of IR is radiated back down to the surface. Really? The molecule of CO2 is floating free in the atmosphere. Nothing to constrain it in a particular orientation. Can you work it out NOW?
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lee

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Re: Tired of stupid AGW denialism?
Reply #67 - Mar 21^st, 2017 at 4:51pm

Jovial Monk wrote on Mar 21^st, 2017 at 4:42pm:

Can’t you work out why absorption/re-emission of IR means at least half of IR is radiated back down to the surface. Really?

The molecule of CO2 is floating free in the atmosphere. Nothing to constrain it in a particular orientation.

Can you work it out NOW?

Yep. You are working on Assumptions. If it were random would that mean re-emission occurs upwards, downwards and sideways (both all sides)? Wink

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Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 51474 Gender:	Re: Tired of stupid AGW denialism? Reply #68 - Mar 21^st, 2017 at 4:57pm FINALLY Lees has a moment of inspiration! Not really, it was mentioned in the paper I discussed. Absorption/re-emission happens in micro or miliseconds BTW.
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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21502 Gender:	Re: Tired of stupid AGW denialism? Reply #69 - Mar 21^st, 2017 at 6:10pm How much CO2 did you pump into your greenhouse to achieve warming? Come on, fess up 1100pm?
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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21502 Gender:	Re: Tired of stupid AGW denialism? Reply #70 - Mar 21^st, 2017 at 6:11pm Jovial Monk wrote on Mar 20^th, 2017 at 9:58pm: JoNova is such a world authority on AGW You're the one quoted it with approval. Or perhaps you have a different graph of CO2 v Temp you would like to supply?
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Jovial Monk

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Re: Tired of stupid AGW denialism?
Reply #71 - Mar 21^st, 2017 at 6:53pm

I said it was one you would believe. That is NO guarantee of quality! You accepted it and with it AGW due to absorption/re-emission of IR by CO2.

JoNovan, like some other deniers I saw, has retreated to admitting AGW exists and the mechanism that brings it about. She is now saying more CO2 won’t increase the warming. She will be disappointed.

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lee

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Re: Tired of stupid AGW denialism?
Reply #72 - Mar 21^st, 2017 at 8:30pm

Jovial Monk wrote on Mar 21^st, 2017 at 6:53pm:

I said it was one you would believe. That is NO guarantee of quality! You accepted it and with it AGW due to absorption/re-emission of IR by CO2.

JoNovan, like some other deniers I saw, has retreated to admitting AGW exists and the mechanism that brings it about. She is now saying more CO2 won’t increase the warming. She will be disappointed.

So you don't have a graph of the effects of CO2 and temperature. Thanks.

It looks like the 3ºC to 7ºC meme is broken.

How much CO2 did you pump into your greenhouse to get the warming?

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Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 51474 Gender:	Re: Tired of stupid AGW denialism? Reply #73 - Mar 21^st, 2017 at 8:56pm You accepted AGW caused by radiative forcing.
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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21502 Gender:	Re: Tired of stupid AGW denialism? Reply #74 - Mar 21^st, 2017 at 10:15pm Jovial Monk wrote on Mar 21^st, 2017 at 8:56pm: You accepted AGW caused by radiative forcing. really? Where?
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