It is difficult to exaggerate just how weak Malcolm Turnbull is right now.

On Tuesday, with the announcement of the Royal Commission, he looked as a leader should, decisive and strong. Today, with one of the most pathetic press conferences I have seen from a prime minister, delivering a decision on Kevin Rudd entirely dictated by the right of his party, he shrank back to the pitiful size he has been for so many of the recent months.

A similar pattern was on show a couple of weeks ago, when Turnbull talked tough on superannuation. Next came soundbites along the lines of “Oh, there are always changes, though.” Then we got right-winger George Christensen saying there absolutely would be changes or he’d be crossing the floor.

Step 1: A tough, articulate PM doing what he thinks is right. Step 2: The conservative wing of his party reminding him who’s boss. Step 3: A chastened prime minister saying “I’m sorry, master, I don’t know what I was thinking.”

As I’ve said before, many prime ministers are useless in their first 12 months, and go on to do very well.

But if Turnbull wants to improve, he is going about things the wrong way. The more he displays his weakness, the weaker he becomes. The conservatives gain confidence that he is their plaything, and the public loses confidence that he can hold his own in a tight spot. Both, right now, are absolutely correct.

Unfortunately for Turnbull, the difficulty is not just that he is acting like he’s in a weak position. The problem is that he really is in a weak position. With the probable loss this week of the seat of Herbert (unless a legal challenge goes ahead), he has the barest majority possible – 76 seats – to hold government in his own right. That puts Christensen and his mates in a powerful position. A threat to cross the floor actually means something. The government’s ability to pass legislation becomes uncertain. Turnbull’s capacity to put his foot down and make demands shrinks to a tiny dot.

Turnbull announced today that the government would not be nominating Kevin Rudd for the job of UN Secretary-General. Typically, he did this in the most roundabout fashion possible, telling Cabinet he would make the decision himself, and that he would call Rudd. All of this took almost an entire extra day. At about midday ,Turnbull finally delivered his decision to the public. This dithering delay ensured the decision was shrouded in a greater mystique and sense of circus than it already was.

Then, making the announcement, Turnbull had nothing to say. Genuinely nothing – especially given the decision itself had already been leaked to Laurie Oakes. He declined to offer any reasons whatsoever other than the fact he had decided Rudd was not “well-suited” to the job, though, he said, he did not mean to disparage Rudd. A less sincere statement is hard to imagine. It was extraordinary. The man is turning non-press-conference press conferences into an artform.

And sure, yes, I can see the logic. Turnbull wants us to accept that the decision was made on the basis of Rudd’s personality, and, further, that he did not want to hurt Rudd’s feelings any more by public going into detail. But let’s be honest: the decision itself humiliates Rudd. If Turnbull believed this was an important decision – and his painfully extended contemplation suggests he did – then he should have explained it.

In the end, the decision humiliated Turnbull almost as much as it humiliated Rudd. Or at least it should have.

Put aside your own feelings, whatever they might be, about whether Rudd should have got the job. That decision is over. What will have lasting consequences for politics in Australia is why Turnbull made the decision he made. And the reason is sadly simple: he is terrified of the right wing of his party.

This is obvious because Julie Bishop, the foreign minister and deputy leader of the Liberal Party, was recommending that Rudd be nominated. It is a significant decision to overrule her on this, especially with other heavy hitters like Arthur Sinodinos on her side. That is a decision that comes from fear.

You can also see this in the risk Turnbull took with Bob Katter, whose vote he will depend on if Christensen and others make good on their threats. Katter had warned that if Rudd was not nominated Katter “would have to reconsider [his] friendship with the Turnbull government”. But Turnbull made the admittedly numerate decision that there are more Coalition conservatives than there are Bob Katters.

No doubt Turnbull believed this was a decision on which he could afford to kowtow to the right, given it wasn’t a question of policy per se. But this is the problem with his approach right now: each time he moves he has one eye, and often both, on internal politics.

It didn’t work for his first nine months. It won’t work now. More importantly, it’s no way to run a country. And it won’t hold up for long.

which one mantra?.... he hasnt anointed one yet?..

if you are talking about this..

Brian Martin, the former NT Supreme Court Chief Justice, achieved infamy among Aboriginal communities in April 2010 when he described five white youths who bashed an Aboriginal man to death in a racially charged drunken rampage as “of otherwise good character”.

The youths – Scott Doody, Timothy Hird, Anton Kloeden, Joshua Spears and Glen Swain – spent the night getting drunk at the local casino, before driving up and down the dry bed of the Todd River, where homeless Aboriginal people sleep.

They abused campers, fired a replica pistol with blank ammunition at them, and ran over at least one swag (owned by an elderly man) with their vehicle.

Eventually, the boys stopped and beat Kwementyaye Ryder, aged 33, to death after he threw a bottle at their car as they drove at him.

It’s also infamous for the response of the community – three days after Mr Ryder was killed, a local resident started selling ‘Alice Springs White Power’ t-shirts from his vehicle outside the local Council chambers and police station.

The same day as the shirts went on sale, the Alice Springs Town Council passed new by-laws empowering council rangers to fine Aboriginal people for begging, and to throw out blankets homeless people stored in bushes in the riverbed to keep them warm in the freezing Central Australian winter.

But the killing is most infamous for the amount of time the five young men ending up serving.

Chief Justice Martin sentenced one of the men to as little as 12 months. The longest time served was four years.

One of Justice Martin’s justifications for the light sentences was that the youths would be caused ‘additional hardship’ in prison, given the overwhelming majority of inmates are Aboriginal.

Fuzzball wrote on Jul 30^th, 2016 at 9:00am:


Good point, but at least Rudd could communicate with the Chinese and when Darwin Port becomes an ant's nest as the new lessees ramp up their import/exports - we might need someone who can communicate with them. Turnbull won't be any help.

So no link? Afraid to show us your source?

Armchair_Politician wrote on Jul 30^th, 2016 at 9:29am:


Click on the heading in Bam's post AP....

"Turnbull becoming weaker by the day"