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Eclectic Tasmanian Senate preferences (Read 341 times)
Bam
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Eclectic Tasmanian Senate preferences
Jul 9th, 2016 at 11:47am
 
Tasmanians' Senate votes 'all over the place'

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New Senate voting rules have allowed Tasmanians to display their eclectic political preferences, according to analysts and scrutineers watching the count.

The Senate count for Tasmania is proceeding slowly, with an official result several weeks away.

At this point, it is still not clear whether incumbents Richard Colbeck of the Liberal Party, Lisa Singh of Labor and Nick McKim from the Greens will be returned.

Polling analyst Dr Kevin Bonhm said anecdotally about one-fifth of Tasmanian voters appeared to have voted below the line in the Senate.

He also said voters who took advantage of new electoral laws that permitted above the line preference voting were revealing diverse tastes.

"The most interesting variation is with people who put number one on the Liberal party ticket above the line — their number twos go absolutely anywhere," Dr Bonham told the ABC.

"Quite a lot go to Labor, some go to left wing parties — they are just all over the place.

"Voters are identifying themselves in ways we didn't think of."

Colbeck, Singh, McKim could all still retain seats: analyst


Senator Colbeck and Senator Singh are both relying on a strong personal vote to carry them over the line in the Senate.

Senator Colbeck was pushed to fifth spot on the Liberal party's list, despite being the only Tasmanian Liberal in Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull's cabinet.

Senator Singh, who is not factionally aligned within Labor, was relegated to the tricky sixth position to make way for left faction union boss John Short.

Late on Friday, Launceston-based Labor Senator Helen Polley posted a photo on Twitter of what she described as the "Tassie Senate Labor Team".

Ms Singh was not in it.

For his part, incumbent Greens senator and former state leader Nick McKim is suffering from a lower-than-expected Greens vote in Tasmania this election.

Dr Bonham said there was a chance all three incumbents would be returned.

"It is statistically possible for all three of them to get in if either (Labor senator) Catryna Bilyk or (Liberal senator) David Bushby loses," he told the ABC.

"With either Richard Colbeck or Lisa Singh, if it happens that they have a quota of votes in their own right, then they are elected and there is nothing that anyone else can do about it.

"Lisa Singh only needs about half a quota or so to knock out John Short, the fifth candidate on the ticket."

Below-the-line votes could be up to 20 per cent


In the 2013 election, about 10 per cent of Tasmanians voted below the line, as voters grappled with an extensive list of minor and micro-parties.

Scrutineers said this election the number of below-the-line votes had jumped dramatically, and Dr Bonham believed the proportion could be up to 20 per cent.

It will be weeks before a final Senate result can be formally declared, and analysts believe it will be at least another few days before the fate of senators Colbeck, Singh and McKim is known.

On Friday, Senator Singh told 936 ABC Hobart there would be no hard feelings towards the party if she were returned to the Senate, after being placed so low on the party's ticket.

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Grendel
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Re: Eclectic Tasmanian Senate preferences
Reply #1 - Jul 9th, 2016 at 11:51am
 
I'd expect below the line voting to go up as we now don't have to number every single box.  So it will be more representative of people's opinions.
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Bam
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Re: Eclectic Tasmanian Senate preferences
Reply #2 - Jul 9th, 2016 at 1:46pm
 
Grendel wrote on Jul 9th, 2016 at 11:51am:
I'd expect below the line voting to go up as we now don't have to number every single box.  So it will be more representative of people's opinions.

Agreed.

If I had my way, I would abolish above the line voting completely. We don't need it now we can number 12 below the line for a valid vote.
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Bam
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Re: Eclectic Tasmanian Senate preferences
Reply #3 - Jul 9th, 2016 at 6:25pm
 
It is interesting how close the ALP and Greens are with their left over quotas in the Tasmanian Senate right now.

Quota is 21,790.
ALP have 96,671 votes. 96,671 ÷ 21,790 = 4 and remainder of 9,511.
Greens have 31,302 votes. 31,302 ÷ 21,790 = 1 and remainder of 9,512.

One vote.

It won't be that close once other candidates are eliminated and the preferences are distributed, but this may be worth watching.
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