'Western Pacific hydroclimate linked to global climate variability over the past two millennia'

'Interdecadal modes of tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere circulation have a strong influence on global temperature, yet the extent to which these phenomena influence global climate on multicentury timescales is still poorly known. Here we present a 2,000-year, multiproxy reconstruction of western Pacific hydroclimate from two speleothem records for southeastern Indonesia. The composite record shows pronounced shifts in monsoon rainfall that are antiphased with precipitation records for East Asia and the central-eastern equatorial Pacific. These meridional and zonal patterns are best explained by a poleward expansion of the Australasian Intertropical Convergence Zone and weakening of the Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) between ~1000 and 1500 CE Conversely, an equatorward contraction of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and strengthened PWC occurred between ~1500 and 1900 CE. Our findings, together with climate model simulations, highlight the likelihood that century-scale variations in tropical Pacific climate modes can significantly modulate radiatively forced shifts in global temperature.'

http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2016/160608/ncomms11719/full/ncomms11719.html

From Australian National University, home of Will Steffen.

Scientists have found past El Niño oscillations in the Pacific Ocean may have amplified global climate fluctuations for hundreds of years at a time.

The team uncovered century-scale patterns in Pacific rainfall and temperature, and linked them with global climate changes in the past 2000 years.

For example, northern hemisphere warming and droughts between the years 950 and 1250 corresponded to an El Niño-like state in the Pacific, which switched to a La Niña-like pattern during a cold period between 1350 and 1900.

The new data will help scientists build more accurate models of future climate, said member of the research team, Alena Kimbrough, from The Australian National University.

"In the past decade or so the rise in global temperature had a brief reprieve, the so-called warming hiatus, which can be partly attributed to a persistent La Niña pattern over that period," Ms Kimbrough said.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/06/160609115117.htm

The_Barnacle wrote on Jun 11^th, 2016 at 11:25am:



But if you listen to Tom Karl et la and their Sea Surface Temperature Adjustments, there was no hiatus. But on the back of his work they have adjusted global temperatures.

It is almost funny.

I found this graph interesting.

It indicates that hiatuses are quite normal and indeed are to be expected. It seems that big el nino events like the one we have just had in 2015 - 16 elevate the global temperature to a new level where it remains until the next big el nino event

https://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2013/07/25/part-1-comments-on-the-ukmo-report-a...

Bob Teasdale address the following assertions below,



Answers here

https://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2013/07/25/part-1-comments-on-the-ukmo-report-a...

Ajax wrote on Jun 12^th, 2016 at 1:10pm:


Correction, as we experienced from 1998 to 2013. The hiatus is over, and given that it only lasted 15 years its not considered climatically significant. Climate requires data over at least 30 years, less than that and natural variation skews the figures.

Ajax wrote on Jun 12^th, 2016 at 1:10pm:


There is ample evidence that CO2 is a greenhouse gas. In fact any gas molecule that contains more than 2 atoms is a greenhouse gas. (Please don't ruin another thread by spamming us with your bogus and discredited graphs again)

You conceded in another thread that the globe is warming. So please enlighten me, if CO2 isn't causing the warming then what is?

lee wrote on Jun 13^th, 2016 at 11:19am:


That's a cop out.
Natural variation can explain the "noise" in the short term (which is why the warming hasn't happened in a geometrically straight line) but it can't be used as an excuse for the long term warming trend.

The Earth has been warming for over 100 years. That is a statistically significant length of time. Something must be causing it.

The_Barnacle wrote on Jun 13^th, 2016 at 10:51am:


Yes the earth has warmed, yes CO2 is a greenhouse gas.

BUT there is no correlation between CO2 and temperature as our history shows.

Now what caused the warming in the 1930's, cause it wasn't CO2.

The Earth heats up and cools down like history has shown us, it has nothing to do with CO2, never has and probably never will.