Australian Politics Forum - A Good Government Resource on Climate Change

John_Taverner Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 2217 Gender:	A Good Government Resource on Climate Change Apr 6^th, 2016 at 10:23am This site provides an excellent resource on climate change. It includes scenarios and impacts and how they translate to different regions of Australia. http://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/en/ It's quite comprehensive.
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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21599 Gender:	Re: A Good Government Resource on Climate Change Reply #1 - Apr 6^th, 2016 at 2:01pm Did you know the really scary stories are based on RCP 8.5? 1370 ppm? How delusional is that?
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BatteriesNotIncluded Gold Member Offline MediocrityNET: because people died for this! Posts: 26966	Re: A Good Government Resource on Climate Change Reply #2 - Apr 6^th, 2016 at 2:06pm lee wrote on Apr 6^th, 2016 at 2:01pm: Did you know the really scary stories are based on RCP 8.5? 1370 ppm? How delusional is that? If you're an extremist anything makes sense! Can I have some more boring blue-coloured crack please????????????????????????????????????????????????
Back to top	Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is. It wouldn't be there without the tax payer. Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know.... (swaggy) IP Logged

lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21599 Gender:	Re: A Good Government Resource on Climate Change Reply #3 - Apr 6^th, 2016 at 3:15pm BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Apr 6^th, 2016 at 2:06pm: If you're an extremist anything makes sense! Then it makes sense to you.
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BatteriesNotIncluded Gold Member Offline MediocrityNET: because people died for this! Posts: 26966	Re: A Good Government Resource on Climate Change Reply #4 - Apr 6^th, 2016 at 3:24pm lee wrote on Apr 6^th, 2016 at 3:15pm: BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Apr 6^th, 2016 at 2:06pm: If you're an extremist anything makes sense! Then it makes sense to you. lee must be right: otherwise he'll stick an uzi through the internet and make you plead for mercy
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John_Taverner Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 2217 Gender:	Re: A Good Government Resource on Climate Change Reply #5 - Apr 6^th, 2016 at 6:01pm lee wrote on Apr 6^th, 2016 at 2:01pm: Did you know the really scary stories are based on RCP 8.5? 1370 ppm? How delusional is that? How many Donald Trump clones would it take to stuff up the planet that badly?
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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21599 Gender:	Re: A Good Government Resource on Climate Change Reply #6 - Apr 6^th, 2016 at 6:06pm John_Taverner wrote on Apr 6^th, 2016 at 6:01pm: How many Donald Trump clones would it take to stuff up the planet that badly? Probably too numerous to calculate. And don't forget they're (climatechange) citing CMIP5 models, which are still running too hot. Even with El Nino.
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John_Taverner

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Re: A Good Government Resource on Climate Change
Reply #7 - Apr 6^th, 2016 at 7:36pm

El Nino is an effect rather than a cause.

There are a lot of feedbacks that we haven't seen yet. We're only at +.87 degrees. Even +2 Degrees is a different ballgame, and we're talking more than that with RCP 8.5.

With the last two years added to the equation, I don't think AR5 is overestimating global warming. It's well within the error bars for the current emission levels, but it's too early to say at this stage. AR5 was the most conservative assessment report of the lot.

We have to work with the best resources available.

Have you heard of Admiral James Stockdale? He was the most senior US Officer to be captured by the Viet Cong, and went on to be the US Vice Admiral and later ran as Vice Presidential candidate to Ross Perot. A lot of what he said applies here.

Quote:

Face the most brutal facts of your current reality and retain faith that you will prevail in the endgame

Optimism is fatal.

Quote:

What the optimists failed to do was confront the reality of their situation. They preferred the ostrich approach, sticking their heads in the sand and hoping for the difficulties to go away. That self-delusion might have made it easier on them in the short-term, but when they were eventually forced to face reality, it had become too much and they couldn’t handle it.

http://www.ndoherty.com/stockdale-paradox/

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lee

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Re: A Good Government Resource on Climate Change
Reply #8 - Apr 6^th, 2016 at 8:46pm

John_Taverner wrote on Apr 6^th, 2016 at 7:36pm:

There are a lot of feedbacks that we haven't seen yet. We're only at +.87 degrees. Even +2 Degrees is a different ballgame, and we're talking more than that with RCP 8.5.

And that +0.87 is with the multi-adjusted datasets.

Just think of those poor buggers struggling in the tropics. Bugger that's not right, it is going to be the mid to high latitudes.

1370 ppm about 2.2 degrees from now.

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John_Taverner

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Re: A Good Government Resource on Climate Change
Reply #9 - Apr 6^th, 2016 at 10:21pm

lee wrote on Apr 6^th, 2016 at 8:46pm:

John_Taverner wrote on Apr 6^th, 2016 at 7:36pm:

There are a lot of feedbacks that we haven't seen yet. We're only at +.87 degrees. Even +2 Degrees is a different ballgame, and we're talking more than that with RCP 8.5.

And that +0.87 is with the multi-adjusted datasets.

You don't seem to grasp the fact that unless you correct data for non climate related effects, the data will be meaningless. Of course your preference is to make it meaningless. To play everything down, normalise everything and bury your head in the sand.

I am in the tropics.

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Chimp_Logic

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Re: A Good Government Resource on Climate Change
Reply #10 - Apr 7^th, 2016 at 12:28am

John_Taverner wrote on Apr 6^th, 2016 at 7:36pm:

El Nino is an effect rather than a cause.

true John. If you trace El Nino related "events" back you eventually arrive at warmer sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. This is what causes a shift in atmospheric circulation.

What is concerning is the high variability in the El Nino periodic cycles. Introducing anthropogenic warming drivers into these natural cycles like wreckless deranged baboons in a nut shop is totally nuts

lee needs to apologise for being so morally irresponsible and directing his political ideology towards the health and well being of the children of the world.

despicable

utterly despicable

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lee

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Re: A Good Government Resource on Climate Change
Reply #11 - Apr 7^th, 2016 at 11:45am

John_Taverner wrote on Apr 6^th, 2016 at 10:21pm:

You don't seem to grasp the fact that unless you correct data for non climate related effects, the data will be meaningless.

If you make corrections to the data - it is no longer data. You can make notes of what you suspect caused non-climate changes, the estimate you would apply to those suspected non-climate changes. But it is just that - estimates.

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lee

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Re: A Good Government Resource on Climate Change
Reply #12 - Apr 7^th, 2016 at 11:48am

Chimp_Logic wrote on Apr 7^th, 2016 at 12:28am:

What is concerning is the high variability in the El Nino periodic cycles. Introducing anthropogenic warming drivers into these natural cycles like wreckless deranged baboons in a nut shop is totally nuts

You mean, once upon a twice, before post-modern science, the El Nino cycles were regular and non-variable? Wink

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John_Taverner

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Re: A Good Government Resource on Climate Change
Reply #13 - Apr 7^th, 2016 at 3:14pm

lee wrote on Apr 7^th, 2016 at 11:45am:

John_Taverner wrote on Apr 6^th, 2016 at 10:21pm:

You don't seem to grasp the fact that unless you correct data for non climate related effects, the data will be meaningless.

If you make corrections to the data - it is no longer data. You can make notes of what you suspect caused non-climate changes, the estimate you would apply to those suspected non-climate changes. But it is just that - estimates.

Tell that to the BoM. While you're at it, tell every university in Australia. They might find your interpretation amusing.

I just found this Wikipedia article for you. It has some good references. It's not bad at all.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homogenization_%28climate%29

It explains the reasons behind homogenisation, and includes the Urban Heat Island effect, changes in measurement methods etc.

It's quite an easy introduction for you.

Quote:

To reliably study the real development of the climate, non-climatic changes have to be removed. The date of the change is often documented (called meta data: data about data), but not always. Meta data is often only available in the local language. In the best case, there are parallel measurements with the original and the new set-up for several years.[11] This is a WMO (World Meteorological Organisation) guideline, but parallel measurements are unfortunately not very often performed, if only because the reason for stopping the original measurement is not known in advance, but probably more often to save money. By making parallel measurement with replicas of historical instruments, screens, etc. some of these inhomogeneities can still be studied today.

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« Last Edit: Apr 7^th, 2016 at 3:32pm by John_Taverner »

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Chimp_Logic

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Re: A Good Government Resource on Climate Change
Reply #14 - Apr 7^th, 2016 at 3:29pm

lee wrote on Apr 7^th, 2016 at 11:48am:

Chimp_Logic wrote on Apr 7^th, 2016 at 12:28am:

What is concerning is the high variability in the El Nino periodic cycles. Introducing anthropogenic warming drivers into these natural cycles like wreckless deranged baboons in a nut shop is totally nuts

You mean, once upon a twice, before post-modern science, the El Nino cycles were regular and non-variable? Wink

That is nor the "point" of the comment I made

Again you grossly fail to see and understand rudimentary elements of polemical discussions

well done lee

well done mate

congratulations on that front mate

Now apologise and self ban so people in here can gather their thoughts and recover from the deceptional discourse that you regularly defecate in this room.

Cool

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Mini Ice Age (2014-2029)
Dr Sircus cures cancer with Baking Soda and Magnesium - Jethro the MENTAL GIANT & his flute madness

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