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Boiled Frogs use Flawed Metrics (Read 7486 times)
BatteriesNotIncluded
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Boiled Frogs use Flawed Metrics
Mar 25th, 2016 at 6:34pm
 
...
Second, our study suggests that global surface air temperature, although an important
diagnostic, is a flawed metric of planetary “health”, because faster ice melt has a cooling effect
for a substantial period. Earth’s energy imbalance is in some sense a more fundamental climate
diagnostic.  Stabilizing climate, to first order, requires restoring planetary energy balance. The
Framework Convention never mentions temperature – instead it mentions stabilization of
greenhouse gas concentrations at a level to avoid danger.  It has been shown that the dominant
climate forcing, CO2, must be reduced to no more than 350 ppm to restore planetary energy
balance (Hansen et al., 2008) and keep climate near the Holocene level, if other forcings remain
unchanged.

Rapid phasedown of fossil fuel emissions is the crucial need, because of the
millennial time scale of this carbon in the climate system. Improved understanding of the carbon
cycle is needed to determine the most effective complementary actions. It may be feasible to
restore planetary energy balance via improved agricultural and forestry practices and other
actions to draw down atmospheric CO2 amount, if fossil fuel emissions are rapidly phased out.
..

source: page 50, http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/15/20059/2015/acp-2015-432-manuscript-ver...
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*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is.  It wouldn't be there without the tax payer.  Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know....  (swaggy) *
 
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BatteriesNotIncluded
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Re: Boiled Frogs use Flawed Metrics
Reply #1 - Mar 25th, 2016 at 6:36pm
 
-> lucky we won't be here to see it  Shocked Shocked Shocked Shocked
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*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is.  It wouldn't be there without the tax payer.  Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know....  (swaggy) *
 
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BatteriesNotIncluded
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Re: Boiled Frogs use Flawed Metrics
Reply #2 - Mar 25th, 2016 at 7:16pm
 
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*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is.  It wouldn't be there without the tax payer.  Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know....  (swaggy) *
 
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Ajax
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CO2 has never controlled
temperature on Earth

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Re: Boiled Frogs use Flawed Metrics
Reply #3 - Mar 25th, 2016 at 7:22pm
 
...
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1. There has never been a more serious assault on our standard of living than Anthropogenic Global Warming..Ajax
2. "One hour of freedom is worth more than 40 years of slavery &  prison" Regas Feraeos
 
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lee
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Re: Boiled Frogs use Flawed Metrics
Reply #4 - Mar 25th, 2016 at 7:24pm
 
You have been reading 350.org too much

'Paleoclimate data show that climate sensitivity is ~3 deg-C for doubled CO2, including only fast feedback processes. Equilibrium sensitivity, including slower surface albedo feedbacks, is ~6 deg-C for doubled CO2 for the range of climate states between glacial conditions and ice-free Antarctica. Decreasing CO2 was the main cause of a cooling trend that began 50 million years ago, large scale glaciation occurring when CO2 fell to 450 +/- 100 ppm, a level that will be exceeded within decades, barring prompt policy changes.'

So decreasing CO2 was the cause of glaciation and you want to go back to that?

http://arxiv.org/abs/0804.1126
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BatteriesNotIncluded
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Re: Boiled Frogs use Flawed Metrics
Reply #5 - Mar 25th, 2016 at 7:50pm
 
lol
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*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is.  It wouldn't be there without the tax payer.  Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know....  (swaggy) *
 
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lee
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Re: Boiled Frogs use Flawed Metrics
Reply #6 - Mar 26th, 2016 at 8:59am
 
Sorry the above was from Hansen et al 2008.
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« Last Edit: Mar 26th, 2016 at 10:49am by lee »  
 
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Re: Boiled Frogs use Flawed Metrics
Reply #7 - Mar 26th, 2016 at 9:13am
 
replies on the new Hansen paper to Seth Borenstein alarmist.

'seth borenstein ‏@borenbears Mar 24

@EricHolthaus Decision not to write based on comments by 5 of 6 outside scientists finding faults in study & model, including Alley (2/2)
1 retweet 3 likes
Eric Holthaus ‏@EricHolthaus Mar 24

.@borenbears you say here that those critical comments convinced you the Hansen study "wasn't worth writing about."
0 retweets 1 like

seth borenstein Verified account
‏@borenbears

@EricHolthaus The study didnt merit AP story. Unproven badly reviewed science whether from Jim Hansen or Fred Singer isnt worth writing

    Retweets
    2
    Likes
    4
    Joseph Verruni
    Adam Robertson
    Jorge Salazar
    Nick Nauslar
    Chris Beale
    Eric Holthaus

2:13 PM - 24 Mar 2016

        Eric Holthaus ‏@EricHolthaus Mar 24

        .@borenbears on what basis do you think the Hansen study was "badly reviewed". And, humbly, all predictions are unproven until the future.'

https://twitter.com/borenbears/status/713111555102150656

So if even Borenstein thinks it is crap, it must be real crap.
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BatteriesNotIncluded
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Re: Boiled Frogs use Flawed Metrics
Reply #8 - Mar 26th, 2016 at 12:30pm
 
lee wrote on Mar 26th, 2016 at 8:59am:
Sorry the above was from Hansen et al 2008.

Everything except your added comment you mean!
  Cool
..let's not forget the bit you highlighted for some reason  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes
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*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is.  It wouldn't be there without the tax payer.  Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know....  (swaggy) *
 
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Re: Boiled Frogs use Flawed Metrics
Reply #9 - Mar 26th, 2016 at 12:35pm
 
BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Mar 26th, 2016 at 12:30pm:
Everything except your added comment you mean



Yes everything except that. Does it stand true for what Hansen et al 2008 state?

lee wrote on Mar 25th, 2016 at 7:24pm:
large scale glaciation occurring when CO2 fell to 450 +/- 100 ppm,



You do not understand what it says?
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BatteriesNotIncluded
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Re: Boiled Frogs use Flawed Metrics
Reply #10 - Mar 26th, 2016 at 12:43pm
 
lee wrote on Mar 26th, 2016 at 12:35pm:
BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Mar 26th, 2016 at 12:30pm:
Everything except your added comment you mean



Yes everything except that. Does it stand true for what Hansen et al 2008 state?

lee wrote on Mar 25th, 2016 at 7:24pm:
large scale glaciation occurring when CO2 fell to 450 +/- 100 ppm,



You do not understand what it says?

Grin Grin
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*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is.  It wouldn't be there without the tax payer.  Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know....  (swaggy) *
 
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Re: Boiled Frogs use Flawed Metrics
Reply #11 - Mar 27th, 2016 at 10:38am
 
lee wrote on Mar 25th, 2016 at 7:24pm:
'Paleoclimate data show that climate sensitivity is ~3 deg-C for doubled CO2, including only fast feedback processes. Equilibrium sensitivity, including slower surface albedo feedbacks, is ~6 deg-C for doubled CO2 for the range of climate states between glacial conditions and ice-free Antarctica. Decreasing CO2 was the main cause of a cooling trend that began 50 million years ago, large scale glaciation occurring when CO2 fell to 450 +/- 100 ppm, a level that will be exceeded within decades, barring prompt policy changes.'

So decreasing CO2 was the cause of glaciation and you want to go back to that?

http://arxiv.org/abs/0804.1126


They are talking about glaciation of Antarctica. And yes we want to preserve Antarctica's glaciers or we will be seeing a rise in sea levels.

Thanks for posting a link confirming the relationship between global temperature and CO2. I'm sure Ajax appreciated it too.
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lee
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Re: Boiled Frogs use Flawed Metrics
Reply #12 - Mar 27th, 2016 at 11:26am
 
The_Barnacle wrote on Mar 27th, 2016 at 10:38am:
They are talking about glaciation of Antarctica. And yes we want to preserve Antarctica's glaciers or we will be seeing a rise in sea levels.



Yes, Did you understand the thing about "Decreasing CO2 was the main cause of a cooling trend that began 50 million years ago, large scale glaciation occurring when CO2 fell to 450 +/- 100 ppm "?  CO2 dropping resulted in the glaciation.

You mean decreasing CO2 led to an Ice Age? Of course there has been no evidence of increasing CO2 leading to runaway global warming ever.
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Re: Boiled Frogs use Flawed Metrics
Reply #13 - Mar 27th, 2016 at 11:48am
 
lee wrote on Mar 27th, 2016 at 11:26am:
The_Barnacle wrote on Mar 27th, 2016 at 10:38am:
They are talking about glaciation of Antarctica. And yes we want to preserve Antarctica's glaciers or we will be seeing a rise in sea levels.



Yes, Did you understand the thing about "Decreasing CO2 was the main cause of a cooling trend that began 50 million years ago, large scale glaciation occurring when CO2 fell to 450 +/- 100 ppm "?  CO2 dropping resulted in the glaciation.

You mean decreasing CO2 led to an Ice Age? Of course there has been no evidence of increasing CO2 leading to runaway global warming ever.


They are talking about glaciation of Antarctica (which had been ice free prior to this) they are not talking about an ice age.
Bit of an own goal there Lee

Quote:
The Eocene Epoch, lasting from 56 to 33.9 million years ago.
During this period of time, little to no ice was present on Earth
with a smaller difference in temperature from the equator to the poles. Following the maximum was a descent into an icehouse climate from the Eocene Optimum to the Eocene-Oligocene transition at 34 million years ago. During this decrease ice began to reappear at the poles, and the Eocene-Oligocene transition is the period of time where the Antarctic ice sheet began to rapidly expand.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eocene

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Re: Boiled Frogs use Flawed Metrics
Reply #14 - Mar 27th, 2016 at 12:58pm
 
lee wrote on Mar 27th, 2016 at 11:26am:
Of course there has been no evidence of increasing CO2 leading to runaway global warming ever.

Not sure what you are trying to define as "runaway" global warming - but that is generally complete bollocks.   There is actually a lot of evidence that increasing CO2 has caused significant global warming in the past.

During the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), ∼56 Mya, thousands of petagrams of carbon were released into the ocean-atmosphere system with attendant changes in the carbon cycle, climate, ocean chemistry, and marine and continental ecosystems. The period of carbon release is thought to have lasted <20 ka, the duration of the whole event was ∼200 ka, and the global temperature increase was 5–8◦C

The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum: A Perturbation of Carbon Cycle, Climate, and Biosphere with Implications for the Future
https://repository.si.edu/bitstream/handle/10088/16827/paleo_McInerney_Wing_2011...

The injection into the atmosphere of approx,200–2,000 gigatons of carbon, as methane from the decomposition of sedimentary methane hydrates, has been proposed to explain a delta13C anomaly associated with high-latitude warming1 and changes in marine and terrestrial biota near the Palaeocene–Eocene boundary, about 55 million years ago.
Carbon cycling and chronology of climate warming during the Palaeocene/Eocene transition
www.nature.com/nature/journal/v401/n6755/abs/401775a0.html
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