Australian Politics Forum - Boiled Frogs use Flawed Metrics

John_Taverner

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Re: Boiled Frogs use Flawed Metrics
Reply #75 - Apr 3^rd, 2016 at 4:46pm

Avoiding the question, I see. I'll make it easier for you:

The attached part of your graph shows the temperature trend since the end of the last Ice Age. (Generally taken to be about 12,000 years BP)

Which of these statements would be most consistent with what you see in the graph you posted:

A. A warming trend since the last Ice Age.
B. An initial warming trend followed by a slight cooling trend.
C. An initial cooling trend followed by a slight warming trend.

I've made it easier for you by cropping to the relevant time period.

Again. This is what you said before. I'm quoting this without modification.

lee wrote on Mar 31^st, 2016 at 5:34pm:

You do know the earth has been warming since the last ice age , don't you?

Well, has it?

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« Last Edit: Apr 3^rd, 2016 at 4:57pm by John_Taverner »

last_12000_yrs.png (47 KB | 44 )

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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21709 Gender:	Re: Boiled Frogs use Flawed Metrics Reply #76 - Apr 3^rd, 2016 at 5:20pm John_Taverner wrote on Apr 3^rd, 2016 at 4:46pm: Well, has it? Obviously it has warmed since the ice age. BTW - about Watts, Jonova etc?
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John_Taverner

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Re: Boiled Frogs use Flawed Metrics
Reply #77 - Apr 3^rd, 2016 at 6:23pm

lee wrote on Apr 3^rd, 2016 at 5:20pm:

John_Taverner wrote on Apr 3^rd, 2016 at 4:46pm:

Well, has it?

Obviously it has warmed since the ice age.

BTW - about Watts, Jonova etc?

Obviously it warmed for a few thousand years after the Ice Age, otherwise we'd still be in an Ice Age. That much is mind-numbingly obvious. Your reply is a glaring half truth.

The argument often used that the increasing trend in temperatures is just a continuation of the warming following the Ice Age is plainly incorrect (based on your graph for one thing) and it is also mind-numbingly obvious that the trend was that of initial warming, then slow cooling.

I doubt if even you could dispute that, even though you continue to dodge the question. I will give you a chance to do that. If you don't take it up, I'll infer from this, that you agree with me.

I've seen enough of Watts and Jo Nova based on posts by Ajax and others like him on other forums, as well as those from Christopher Monckton. On the surface, their articles are seductively simplistic. Scratch below that veneer of half truths and cherry picking, and the arguments fall apart. Yes, I have on occasion followed the links, but the stench of deception at those sites was enough to discourage me from revisiting.

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« Last Edit: Apr 3^rd, 2016 at 6:36pm by John_Taverner »

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BatteriesNotIncluded

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Re: Boiled Frogs use Flawed Metrics
Reply #78 - Apr 3^rd, 2016 at 9:49pm

Ajax wrote on Apr 3^rd, 2016 at 9:33am:

John_Taverner wrote on Apr 3^rd, 2016 at 9:24am:

Ajax wrote on Apr 3^rd, 2016 at 8:58am:

How can you choose to ignore the multitude of over whelming evidence that goes against these fraudsters that produce hockey sticks from their studies to suggest current temperatures are unusual when its evident in our history that we have had warmer periods than we are experiencing now.

OK, so any peer reviewed work that disagrees with your conspiracy theories is now fraud.

You must love this site:

http://www.debunking911.com/

Grin

Professor you keep shooting yourself n the foot with your very own evidence.

This site you provided shows one of the towers broken into to two, the top one third looks like its going to topple over.

That's what should've happened, after all those bombs were detonated at that point and time, maybe an oversight by the demolition team.

Instead the top third of the building was pulverized into dust by explosives, how can you explain that one professor, what crushed the top third of the building...???

There is your evidence, thanks to you professor.

The world trade centre was demolished.

http://www.debunking911.com/
http://i67.tinypic.com/mafj2t.jpg

Um, whattttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttt
ttttttttttttttttttttt Huh

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*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is. It wouldn't be there without the tax payer. Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know.... (swaggy) *

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lee

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Re: Boiled Frogs use Flawed Metrics
Reply #79 - Apr 3^rd, 2016 at 10:51pm

John_Taverner wrote on Apr 3^rd, 2016 at 6:23pm:

I've seen enough of Watts and Jo Nova based on posts by Ajax and others like him on other forums, as well as those from Christopher Monckton. On the surface, their articles are seductively simplistic. Scratch below that veneer of half truths and cherry picking, and the arguments fall apart. Yes, I have on occasion followed the links, but the stench of deception at those sites was enough to discourage me from revisiting.

So that reporting climate science like Karl et al stinks.

Yes I have to agree with you.

John_Taverner wrote on Apr 3^rd, 2016 at 6:23pm:

The argument often used that the increasing trend in temperatures is just a continuation of the warming following the Ice Age is plainly incorrect (based on your graph for one thing) and it is also mind-numbingly obvious that the trend was that of initial warming, then slow cooling.

I doubt if even you could dispute that, even though you continue to dodge the question. I will give you a chance to do that. If you don't take it up, I'll infer from this, that you agree with me.

As I said you are looking at a small time-frame.

lee wrote on Apr 2^nd, 2016 at 6:42pm:

(Marcott) and noted that no variability is preserved at periods shorter than 300 years in our Monte-Carlo reconstructions

And you want to use that as proof that there haven't been short-term warming trends in the past? You are definitely an activist.

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BatteriesNotIncluded

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Re: Boiled Frogs use Flawed Metrics
Reply #80 - Apr 3^rd, 2016 at 11:15pm

lee wrote on Apr 3^rd, 2016 at 10:51pm:

John_Taverner wrote on Apr 3^rd, 2016 at 6:23pm:

I've seen enough of Watts and Jo Nova based on posts by Ajax and others like him on other forums, as well as those from Christopher Monckton. On the surface, their articles are seductively simplistic. Scratch below that veneer of half truths and cherry picking, and the arguments fall apart. Yes, I have on occasion followed the links, but the stench of deception at those sites was enough to discourage me from revisiting.

So that reporting climate science like Karl et al stinks.

Yes I have to agree with you.

John_Taverner wrote on Apr 3^rd, 2016 at 6:23pm:

The argument often used that the increasing trend in temperatures is just a continuation of the warming following the Ice Age is plainly incorrect (based on your graph for one thing) and it is also mind-numbingly obvious that the trend was that of initial warming, then slow cooling.

I doubt if even you could dispute that, even though you continue to dodge the question. I will give you a chance to do that. If you don't take it up, I'll infer from this, that you agree with me.

As I said you are looking at a small time-frame.

lee wrote on Apr 2^nd, 2016 at 6:42pm:

(Marcott) and noted that no variability is preserved at periods shorter than 300 years in our Monte-Carlo reconstructions

And you want to use that as proof that there haven't been short-term warming trends in the past? You are definitely an activist.

Lee doesn't know how many liberal voters get free rent from daddykins to smoke crack does he?

Roll Eyes

I dare Lee to visit Julie Bishops electorate one day Grin

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*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is. It wouldn't be there without the tax payer. Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know.... (swaggy) *

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BatteriesNotIncluded

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Re: Boiled Frogs use Flawed Metrics
Reply #81 - Apr 3^rd, 2016 at 11:16pm

lee wrote on Apr 3^rd, 2016 at 10:51pm:

John_Taverner wrote on Apr 3^rd, 2016 at 6:23pm:

I've seen enough of Watts and Jo Nova based on posts by Ajax and others like him on other forums, as well as those from Christopher Monckton. On the surface, their articles are seductively simplistic. Scratch below that veneer of half truths and cherry picking, and the arguments fall apart. Yes, I have on occasion followed the links, but the stench of deception at those sites was enough to discourage me from revisiting.

So that reporting climate science like Karl et al stinks.

Yes I have to agree with you.

John_Taverner wrote on Apr 3^rd, 2016 at 6:23pm:

The argument often used that the increasing trend in temperatures is just a continuation of the warming following the Ice Age is plainly incorrect (based on your graph for one thing) and it is also mind-numbingly obvious that the trend was that of initial warming, then slow cooling.

I doubt if even you could dispute that, even though you continue to dodge the question. I will give you a chance to do that. If you don't take it up, I'll infer from this, that you agree with me.

As I said you are looking at a small time-frame.

lee wrote on Apr 2^nd, 2016 at 6:42pm:

(Marcott) and noted that no variability is preserved at periods shorter than 300 years in our Monte-Carlo reconstructions

And you want to use that as proof that there haven't been short-term warming trends in the past? You are definitely an activist.

um, ?

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*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is. It wouldn't be there without the tax payer. Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know.... (swaggy) *

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John_Taverner

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Re: Boiled Frogs use Flawed Metrics
Reply #82 - Apr 4^th, 2016 at 6:43am

lee wrote on Apr 3^rd, 2016 at 10:51pm:

And you want to use that as proof that there haven't been short-term warming trends in the past? You are definitely an activist.

Oh you were referring to short term warming trends of less than 300 years stuck in a longer term overall cooling trend.

I don't see any point in continuing. Your arguments are surreal.

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lee

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Re: Boiled Frogs use Flawed Metrics
Reply #83 - Apr 4^th, 2016 at 10:43am

John_Taverner wrote on Apr 4^th, 2016 at 6:43am:

Oh you were referring to short term warming trends of less than 300 years stuck in a longer term overall cooling trend.

I don't see any point in continuing. Your arguments are surreal.

You were the one talking about short-term warming trends for the 20th century and using Marcott graphs with approval. It just shows you hadn't either read or understood the paper. Unless you were just pushing the AGW cause.

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BatteriesNotIncluded

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Re: Boiled Frogs use Flawed Metrics
Reply #84 - Apr 4^th, 2016 at 6:47pm

lee wrote on Apr 4^th, 2016 at 10:43am:

John_Taverner wrote on Apr 4^th, 2016 at 6:43am:

Oh you were referring to short term warming trends of less than 300 years stuck in a longer term overall cooling trend.

I don't see any point in continuing. Your arguments are surreal.

You were the one talking about short-term warming trends for the 20th century and using Marcott graphs with approval. It just shows you hadn't either read or understood the paper. Unless you were just pushing the AGW cause.

Lee is made of straw! (Yes, still mum! This f'n joke is still made of straw!!)

HI WORZEL Cheesy

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*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is. It wouldn't be there without the tax payer. Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know.... (swaggy) *

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John_Taverner

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Re: Boiled Frogs use Flawed Metrics
Reply #85 - Apr 5^th, 2016 at 10:07am

lee wrote on Mar 31^st, 2016 at 5:34pm:

You do know the earth has been warming since the last ice age , don't you?

- but your graph shows the complete opposite.

Quote:

As I said you are looking at a small time-frame.

The timeframe since the last Ice Age - the same time frame that you say that the earth has been warming in.

Are you sating that there were short periods of warming within that overall cooling trend since the initial spike? Is that what you're saying? (If you are, I don't dispute that)

Lee - you are seriously giving Ajax a run for his money. Your statements are almost overtaking his on the silliness scale.

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John_Taverner

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Re: Boiled Frogs use Flawed Metrics
Reply #86 - Apr 5^th, 2016 at 10:13am

lee wrote on Apr 4^th, 2016 at 10:43am:

You were the one talking about short-term warming trends for the 20th century and using Marcott graphs with approval. It just shows you hadn't either read or understood the paper. Unless you were just pushing the AGW cause.

No I was talking about your now disproven assertion that:

lee wrote on Mar 31^st, 2016 at 5:34pm:

You do know the earth has been warming since the last ice age , don't you?

Are you going to admit that you contradicted yourself with the graph that you posted or are you going to continue to act like a fool?

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lee

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Re: Boiled Frogs use Flawed Metrics
Reply #87 - Apr 5^th, 2016 at 11:06am

John, You are the one talking about late 20th century warming. That is a small time-frame.

That is why it gets lost in a 300year Marcott reconstruction. That is why the Minoan, Roman and MWP are lost. The uptick is just a function of the methodology used.

Nice try though.

Are you going to admit acting like an AGW activist?

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John_Taverner

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Re: Boiled Frogs use Flawed Metrics
Reply #88 - Apr 5^th, 2016 at 11:29am

lee wrote on Apr 5^th, 2016 at 11:06am:

John, You are the one talking about late 20th century warming. That is a small time-frame.

That is why it gets lost in a 300year Marcott reconstruction. That is why the Minoan, Roman and MWP are lost. The uptick is just a function of the methodology used.

Nice try though.

Are you going to admit acting like an AGW activist?

Nice try at deflecting. The upward trend in temperature in the late 20th century does not rely on Marcott's study. His study was about paleotemperature reconstruction. There are plenty of other reconstructions over a shorter time frame, and I have already posted one graph showing some of these.

When are you going to admit that the overall trend for the last 5000 - 8000 years was one of slight cooling?

To say that it has been warming since the last ice age is incorrect whichever way you look at it.

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lee

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Re: Boiled Frogs use Flawed Metrics
Reply #89 - Apr 5^th, 2016 at 12:42pm

John_Taverner wrote on Apr 5^th, 2016 at 11:29am:

There are plenty of other reconstructions over a shorter time frame, and I have already posted one graph showing some of these.

Mann?

John_Taverner wrote on Apr 5^th, 2016 at 11:29am:

When are you going to admit that the overall trend for the last 5000 - 8000 years was one of slight cooling?

When are you going to admit that the reconstructions don't do warming blips?

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