Australian Politics Forum - Boiled Frogs use Flawed Metrics

lee

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Re: Boiled Frogs use Flawed Metrics
Reply #60 - Apr 3^rd, 2016 at 1:55pm

John_Taverner wrote on Apr 3^rd, 2016 at 8:35am:

Both Marcott and Shakun provide independent studies that totally refute your assertion that the temperature has been rising since the last glaciation.

This is the case regardless of whether you take 150 year running means or not.

And yet you show a graph from the LIA approximately, which was not the last glaciation. More post-modern climatology.

I'll use wiki; you seem to understand that.

'Chronology of climatic events of importance for the Last Glacial Period (about the last 120 000 years)'

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Last_glacial_period

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John_Taverner Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 2217 Gender:	Re: Boiled Frogs use Flawed Metrics Reply #61 - Apr 3^rd, 2016 at 2:05pm Although those graphs both belong to specific localities, they still show cooling trends for the latest 5000 year time period. You just shot yourself in the foot, Lee. In fact, they agree quite closely with the work of Marcott.
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lee

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Re: Boiled Frogs use Flawed Metrics
Reply #62 - Apr 3^rd, 2016 at 2:31pm

John_Taverner wrote on Apr 3^rd, 2016 at 2:05pm:

Although those graphs both belong to specific localities, they still show cooling trends for the latest 5000 year time period.

Wow, you can pull 5,000 year time lines that far with certainty. No short term trends whatsoever. Colour me impressed. /sarc

You mean the Marcott uptick which he says is not robust, because it is caused by the methodology? Just like the Mann uptick that you also included. You are getting funnier and funnier. Who needs a circus?

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John_Taverner

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Re: Boiled Frogs use Flawed Metrics
Reply #63 - Apr 3^rd, 2016 at 2:38pm

Removing the recent upstick, you can see that Marcott and the graphs you provided show remarkably similar trends. The Marcott graph I showed previously had the time scale in the opposite direction. I can tidy this up further, but just to illustrate a point, you can see similar cooling trends in both graphs.

The time scale in both cases go from 1 to 20,000 years.

By the way, I said the last glaciation, not the last glacial period.

Deglaciation commenced in the Northern Hemisphere gradually between approximately 18,000 to 17,000 BCE, and in Antarctica approximately 12,500 BCE.

(See reply 67 for the graphs)

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« Last Edit: Apr 3^rd, 2016 at 3:29pm by John_Taverner »

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Ajax

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Re: Boiled Frogs use Flawed Metrics
Reply #64 - Apr 3^rd, 2016 at 2:42pm

John_Taverner wrote on Apr 3^rd, 2016 at 2:05pm:

Although those graphs both belong to specific localities, they still show cooling trends for the latest 5000 year time period. You just shot yourself in the foot, Lee.

In fact, they agree quite closely with the work of Marcott.

Geez professor your really having a bad hair day today, you just keep outing your foot in it......ROFL..... Grin

I guess you'll live to fight another day.

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1. There has never been a more serious assault on our standard of living than Anthropogenic Global Warming..Ajax
2. "One hour of freedom is worth more than 40 years of slavery & prison" Regas Feraeos

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John_Taverner

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Re: Boiled Frogs use Flawed Metrics
Reply #65 - Apr 3^rd, 2016 at 2:45pm

Ajax wrote on Apr 3^rd, 2016 at 2:42pm:

John_Taverner wrote on Apr 3^rd, 2016 at 2:05pm:

Although those graphs both belong to specific localities, they still show cooling trends for the latest 5000 year time period. You just shot yourself in the foot, Lee.

In fact, they agree quite closely with the work of Marcott.

Geez professor your really having a bad hair day today, you just keep outing your foot in it......ROFL..... Grin

I guess you'll live to fight another day.

I don't expect you to understand this, but at least others will. Blind Freddy can see that the above graphs do not show warming since the last glaciation. Your argument that the warming of the past 50 years is just a continuation of warming since the last ice age is therefore totally fallacious.

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Ajax

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Re: Boiled Frogs use Flawed Metrics
Reply #66 - Apr 3^rd, 2016 at 3:01pm

John_Taverner wrote on Apr 3^rd, 2016 at 2:45pm:

Ajax wrote on Apr 3^rd, 2016 at 2:42pm:

John_Taverner wrote on Apr 3^rd, 2016 at 2:05pm:

Although those graphs both belong to specific localities, they still show cooling trends for the latest 5000 year time period. You just shot yourself in the foot, Lee.

In fact, they agree quite closely with the work of Marcott.

Geez professor your really having a bad hair day today, you just keep outing your foot in it......ROFL..... Grin

I guess you'll live to fight another day.

I don't expect you to understand this, but at least others will. Blind Freddy can see that the above graphs do not show warming since the last glaciation. Your argument that the warming of the past 50 years is just a continuation of warming since the last ice age is therefore totally fallacious.

It still has me perplexed how a man of your educational background can be deceived by trash like that which you are presenting.

I recon you're an agent from skeptical science blog sent here by that cartoonist and fraudster John Cook who himself reports to Al Gore on converting Australians to Anthropogenic Global Warming Religion.

What will you be door knocking next like the jehovah's witnesses FFS.... Angry

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1. There has never been a more serious assault on our standard of living than Anthropogenic Global Warming..Ajax
2. "One hour of freedom is worth more than 40 years of slavery & prison" Regas Feraeos

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John_Taverner Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 2217 Gender:	Re: Boiled Frogs use Flawed Metrics Reply #67 - Apr 3^rd, 2016 at 3:17pm I've cleaned up the graph. Lee is quiet because he has the nouse to realise what I'm talking about. With the time axes going the same way, the Morcott graph is very similar in trend to the graph that Lee just presented.
Back to top	« Last Edit: Apr 3^rd, 2016 at 3:22pm by John_Taverner » Approximate_chronology_of_Heinrich_events_vs_DansgaardOeschger_evets_and_Antarctic_Isotope_Maxima.png (126 KB \| 17 ) IP Logged

John_Taverner

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Re: Boiled Frogs use Flawed Metrics
Reply #68 - Apr 3^rd, 2016 at 3:56pm

lee wrote on Mar 31^st, 2016 at 5:34pm:

You do know the earth has been warming since the last ice age , don't you?

Quote:

The last glacial period, popularly known as the Ice Age, was the most recent glacial period within the Quaternary glaciation occurring during the last 100,000 years of the Pleistocene, from approximately 110,000 to 12,000 years ago

So we're looking for signs that the earth has been warming since about 12.000 years ago.

Lee,

How do you explain the fact that you just posted a graph that contradicts your previous statement? Have you changed your mind?

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lee

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Re: Boiled Frogs use Flawed Metrics
Reply #69 - Apr 3^rd, 2016 at 4:03pm

John_Taverner wrote on Apr 3^rd, 2016 at 3:17pm:

I've cleaned up the graph. Lee is quiet because he has the nouse to realise what I'm talking about

You expanded the graph and expect to see short-term trends? Grin

John_Taverner wrote on Apr 3^rd, 2016 at 3:56pm:

So we're looking for signs that the earth has been warming since about 12.000 years ago.

Lee,

How do you explain the fact that you just posted a graph that contradicts your previous statement? Have you changed your mind?

Have you posted any error bars? Wink

BTW, I notice you don't address what both Marcott and Shakun have said about their papers.

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John_Taverner

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Re: Boiled Frogs use Flawed Metrics
Reply #70 - Apr 3^rd, 2016 at 4:21pm

lee wrote on Apr 3^rd, 2016 at 4:03pm:

John_Taverner wrote on Apr 3^rd, 2016 at 3:17pm:

I've cleaned up the graph. Lee is quiet because he has the nouse to realise what I'm talking about

You expanded the graph and expect to see short-term trends? Grin

I stretched the graph slightly to show that your graph shows a similar cooling trend to that of Morcott.

Quote:

John_Taverner wrote on Apr 3^rd, 2016 at 3:56pm:

So we're looking for signs that the earth has been warming since about 12.000 years ago.

Lee,

How do you explain the fact that you just posted a graph that contradicts your previous statement? Have you changed your mind?

Have you posted any error bars? Wink

BTW, I notice you don't address what both Marcott and Shakun have said about their papers.

Well the first graph was yours. Did you post any error bars? Do you deny that the graph shows a rising trend, then a cooling trend ?

What Marcott and Shakun said related to the more recent industrial period. I removed the projected uptick to 2100 from the composite graph because it doesn't relate to your argument anyway.

Your statement that the world has been warming since the last Ice Age has now been demonstrated to be false by virtue of data that you posted yourself.

I'll ask you again. Does your graph show a warming or a cooling trend for the most recent (say) 8000 years? A simple question.

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« Last Edit: Apr 3^rd, 2016 at 4:26pm by John_Taverner »

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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21779 Gender:	Re: Boiled Frogs use Flawed Metrics Reply #71 - Apr 3^rd, 2016 at 4:30pm John_Taverner wrote on Apr 3^rd, 2016 at 4:21pm: I'll ask you again. Does your graph show a warming or a cooling trend for the most recent (say) 8000 years? Actually, don't you see you just changed the question again. Where did I say there have been no warming or cooling periods within that time-frame?
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John_Taverner

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Re: Boiled Frogs use Flawed Metrics
Reply #72 - Apr 3^rd, 2016 at 4:36pm

lee wrote on Apr 3^rd, 2016 at 4:30pm:

John_Taverner wrote on Apr 3^rd, 2016 at 4:21pm:

I'll ask you again. Does your graph show a warming or a cooling trend for the most recent (say) 8000 years?

Actually, don't you see you just changed the question again. Where did I say there have been no warming or cooling periods within that time-frame?

I already quoted what you said. Now answer the question. If you prefer to put in context of the entire 12.000 year period, please describe the trends that you see in your graph.

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lee

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Re: Boiled Frogs use Flawed Metrics
Reply #73 - Apr 3^rd, 2016 at 4:41pm

John_Taverner wrote on Apr 3^rd, 2016 at 9:24am:

Ajax wrote on Apr 3^rd, 2016 at 8:58am:

How can you choose to ignore the multitude of over whelming evidence that goes against these fraudsters that produce hockey sticks from their studies to suggest current temperatures are unusual when its evident in our history that we have had warmer periods than we are experiencing now.

OK, so any peer reviewed work that disagrees with your conspiracy theories is now fraud. So let me get this right. Mann is a fraud, All the 12 authors of the proxy studies previously mentioned are frauds. Marcott is a fraud. Shakun is a fraud. There has been a 10 year conspiracy involving thousands and thousands of scientists (evil b@stards) and we should place our trust in Micro Watt, Joanne Nova and other unqualified hacks.

In addition to that, we should go through a list of Ajax supplied highly localised studies, including one in a single location in Norway all to prove that the Medieval Warm period was warmer than today. ( Of course it isn't, but the whole business of the Medieval Warm Period is a red herring anyway)

You must love this site:

http://www.debunking911.com/

Please tell us more Ajax. Your posts are always very entertaining Grin

Why is the MWP a red herring? There are widespread studies show multiple localised events; in both NH and SH. How many of these "localised events" do we need before you would consider these localised events constituted a global event. Not all at the same time. Or is that one of your prerquisites?

Micro Watt, Joanne Nova and other unqualified hacks. - Seeing how you have said you don't read blogs; how have you determined this? Around the water cooler at work? You know what they say about relying on water cooler gossip don't you?

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lee

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Re: Boiled Frogs use Flawed Metrics
Reply #74 - Apr 3^rd, 2016 at 4:44pm

John_Taverner wrote on Apr 3^rd, 2016 at 4:36pm:

If you prefer to put in context of the entire 12.000 year period, please describe the trends that you see in your graph.

Why would I do that when the graph shows the earth coming out of the ice age at about 15.5k years? Do you see a warming coming out of the ice age or not?

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