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Boiled Frogs use Flawed Metrics (Read 7520 times)
John_Taverner
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Re: Boiled Frogs use Flawed Metrics
Reply #45 - Apr 2nd, 2016 at 5:47pm
 
Quote:
By WWU GEOLOGY FACULTY — COURTESY TO THE BELLINGHAM HERALD

On March 26, 2013, a long-retired faculty member of our department, Don Easterbrook, presented his opinions on human-caused global climate change to the Washington State Senate Energy, Environment and Telecommunications Committee at the invitation of the committee chair Sen. Doug Ericksen, R.-Ferndale. We, the active faculty of the Geology Department at Western Washington University, express our unanimous and significant concerns regarding the views espoused by Easterbrook, who holds a doctorate in geology; they are neither scientifically valid nor supported by the overwhelming preponderance of evidence on the topic. We also decry the injection of such poor quality science into the public discourse regarding important policy decisions for our state's future; the chair of the committee was presented with numerous options and opportunities to invite current experts to present the best-available science on this subject, and chose instead to, apparently, appeal to a narrow partisan element with his choice of speaker.

We concur with the vast consensus of the science community that recent global warming is very real, human greenhouse-gas emissions are the primary cause, and their environmental and economic impacts on our society will likely be severe if we don't make significant efforts to address the problem. Claims to the contrary fly in the face of an overwhelming body of rigorous scientific literature.

We intend no disrespect to Easterbrook personally. We appreciate his previous service to our department and to Western. His present appointment as emeritus professor was made in light of his long-standing history at WWU. But people of the state of Washington need to understand that Easterbrook's ideas on anthropogenic global warming have not passed through rigorous peer review in the scientific literature. Additionally, Easterbrook's claims in this forum and elsewhere require the existence of a broad, decades-long conspiracy amongst literally thousands of scientists to falsify climate data and to prevent publication of opposing research. This opinion demonstrates a profound rejection of the scientific process and the fundamental value of rigorous peer review, and is also simply wrong.

Science thrives on controversies; it rewards innovative, unexpected findings, but only when they are backed by rigorous, painstaking evidence and reasoning. Without such standards, science would be ineffective as a tool to improve our society. It is worth acknowledging that nearly every technological advance in modern society is a direct result of that same scientific method (think the Internet, airplanes, antibiotics, and even your smartphone).

Easterbrook's views, as exemplified by his Senate presentation, are a stark contrast to that standard; they are filled with misrepresentations, misuse of data and repeated mixing of local vs. global records. Nearly every graphic in the hours-long presentation to the Senate was flawed, as was Easterbrook's discussion of them. For example, more than 100 years of research in physics, chemistry, atmospheric science and oceanography has, via experiments, numerous physical observations and theoretic calculations, clearly demonstrate - and have communicated via the scientific literature - that carbon dioxide is a powerful greenhouse gas; its presence and variations in Earth's atmosphere have significant and measureable impacts on the surface temperature of our planet. Alternatively, you can take Easterbrook's word - not supported by any published science - that the concentration and effects of carbon dioxide are so small as to not matter a bit.

In a specific example, Easterbrook referred to a graph of temperatures from an ice core of the Greenland ice sheet to claim that global temperatures were warmer than present over most of the last 10,000 years. First, this record is of temperature from a single spot on Earth, central Greenland (thus it is not a "global record"). Second, and perhaps more importantly, Easterbrook's definition of "present temperature" in the graph is based on the most recent data point in that record, which is actually 1855, more than 150 years ago when the world was still in the depths of the Little Ice Age, and well before any hint of human-caused climate change.

As the active faculty of the Western Washington University Geology Department that he lists as his affiliation, we conclude that Easterbrook's presentation clearly does not represent the best-available science on this subject, and urge the Senate, our state government, and the citizens of Washington State to rely on rigorous peer-reviewed science rather than conspiracy-based ideas to steer their decisions on matters concerning our environment and economic future.

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Western Washington University WWU Geology Department faculty members who authored this column are Douglas H. Clark, who holds a doctorate in geology; Bernard A. Housen, who is the department chair and holds a doctorate in geophysics; Susan Debari, who holds a doctorate in geology; Colin B. Amos, who holds a doctorate in geology; Scott R. Linneman, who holds a doctorate in geology; Robert J. Mitchell, who holds doctorates in engineering and geology; David M. Hirsch, who holds a doctorate in geology; Jaqueline Caplan-Auerbach, who holds a doctorate in geophysics; Pete Stelling, who holds a doctorate in geology; Elizabeth R. Schermer.......
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Re: Boiled Frogs use Flawed Metrics
Reply #46 - Apr 2nd, 2016 at 5:55pm
 
Chimp_Logic wrote on Apr 2nd, 2016 at 10:29am:
your graph isnt clear batman. What is the x-axis time range? In what year does the data end? Where did you extract the data?



The previous letter answers most of those questions. The data ends in 1855.
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Re: Boiled Frogs use Flawed Metrics
Reply #47 - Apr 2nd, 2016 at 6:26pm
 
John_Taverner wrote on Apr 2nd, 2016 at 5:43pm:
If you want an actual peer reviewed paper that provides a reconstruction of global temperatures for the past 10,000 years, the most recent work is Marcott et al. (2013, A Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years, Science, Vol. 339 no. 6124 pp. 1198-1201.

There are other respectable peer reviewed studies such as Shakun et al.

Combining the data from these two studies plus Hadcrut 4 and a projection to 2100, this is what it looks like:




'Q.

Is the rate of global temperature rise over the last 100 years faster than at any time during the past 11,300 years?
A.

Our study did not directly address this question because the paleotemperature records used in our study have a temporal resolution of ~120 years on average, which precludes us from examining variations in rates of change occurring within a century. Other factors also contribute to smoothing the proxy temperature signals contained in many of the records we used, such as organisms burrowing through deep-sea mud, and chronological uncertainties in the proxy records that tend to smooth the signals when compositing them into a globally averaged reconstruction. We showed that no temperature variability is preserved in our reconstruction at cycles shorter than 300 years, 50% is preserved at 1000-year time scales, and nearly all is preserved at 2000-year periods and longer. Our Monte-Carlo analysis accounts for these sources of uncertainty to yield a robust (albeit smoothed) global record. Any small “upticks” or “downticks” in temperature that last less than several hundred years in our compilation of paleoclimate data are probably not robust, as stated in the paper.'

http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/03/31/fresh-thoughts-from-authors-of-a-pa...

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Re: Boiled Frogs use Flawed Metrics
Reply #48 - Apr 2nd, 2016 at 6:42pm
 
Shakun's reply to Steve McIntyre-

'Dear Stephen,

Thank you for the inquiry. Please note that we clearly state in paragraph 4 of the manuscript that the reconstruction over the past 60 yrs before present (the years 1890 − 1950 CE) is probably not robust because of the small number of datasets that go into the reconstruction over that time frame. Specifically, we concluded this based on several lines of evidence. (1) Comparison of the Standard5x5 reconstruction with the RegEM stack shows that they differ during this youngest 60-year interval, suggesting the reconstruction for the last 60 years is dependent on this methodology, whereas the agreement between the methods for the remainder of the reconstruction shows it is not dependent on this methodology. (2) Figure 1G shows the number of datasets going into the reconstruction in each time interval. In the online supplement, we evaluated in some detail the fidelity of global reconstructions based on the number of datasets included (for example, Fig. S13); that analysis notes a considerable reduction in the correlation of Monte Carlo reconstructions with an input global signal when the number of temperature time series becomes small. (3) In manuscript paragraph 5 (and in an extensive discussion in online supplement section 9), we evaluated effective smoothing of centennial to millennial scale variability, and noted that no variability is preserved at periods shorter than 300 years in our Monte-Carlo reconstructions. For these reasons, we do not use the reconstruction of the last 60 years shown in Figure 1 as the basis for any of our conclusions.'

http://climateaudit.org/2013/03/13/marcott-mystery-1/#comment-404356

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Re: Boiled Frogs use Flawed Metrics
Reply #49 - Apr 2nd, 2016 at 7:21pm
 
John_Taverner wrote on Apr 2nd, 2016 at 5:43pm:
If you want an actual peer reviewed paper that provides a reconstruction of global temperatures for the past 10,000 years, the most recent work is Marcott et al. (2013, A Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years, Science, Vol. 339 no. 6124 pp. 1198-1201.

There are other respectable peer reviewed studies such as Shakun et al.

Combining the data from these two studies plus Hadcrut 4 and a projection to 2100, this is what it looks like:



So you do believe in hockey sticks, well professor I'm starting to think you're anything but.

Proxies obtained from alkenones are controversial to say the least, the findings of these two fraudsters have been shown to be wrong and that they fiddled with the figures to arrive at an agreeable conclusion with the AGW religion.

You really do need to be thrown into the hyperdrive.

...


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Re: Boiled Frogs use Flawed Metrics
Reply #50 - Apr 2nd, 2016 at 7:33pm
 
Nothing wrong with that graph either professor both sides use it and refer to it.

Mr. Eaterbrook didn't create it he just used it.

...
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Re: Boiled Frogs use Flawed Metrics
Reply #51 - Apr 2nd, 2016 at 8:36pm
 
Nothing wrong with your graph if it is used for the intended purpose,

I'm not particularly interested in what Steve McIntyre has to say. I'm more interested in qualified climatologists.

At the time of that article, Don Easterbrook had long retired from the WWU. He was misrepresenting himself.

The letter from WWU speaks for itself.
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Re: Boiled Frogs use Flawed Metrics
Reply #52 - Apr 2nd, 2016 at 8:44pm
 
lee wrote on Apr 2nd, 2016 at 6:26pm:
John_Taverner wrote on Apr 2nd, 2016 at 5:43pm:
If you want an actual peer reviewed paper that provides a reconstruction of global temperatures for the past 10,000 years, the most recent work is Marcott et al. (2013, A Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years, Science, Vol. 339 no. 6124 pp. 1198-1201.

There are other respectable peer reviewed studies such as Shakun et al.

Combining the data from these two studies plus Hadcrut 4 and a projection to 2100, this is what it looks like:




'Q.

Is the rate of global temperature rise over the last 100 years faster than at any time during the past 11,300 years?
A.

Our study did not directly address this question because the paleotemperature records used in our study have a temporal resolution of ~120 years on average, which precludes us from examining variations in rates of change occurring within a century. Other factors also contribute to smoothing the proxy temperature signals contained in many of the records we used, such as organisms burrowing through deep-sea mud, and chronological uncertainties in the proxy records that tend to smooth the signals when compositing them into a globally averaged reconstruction. We showed that no temperature variability is preserved in our reconstruction at cycles shorter than 300 years, 50% is preserved at 1000-year time scales, and nearly all is preserved at 2000-year periods and longer. Our Monte-Carlo analysis accounts for these sources of uncertainty to yield a robust (albeit smoothed) global record. Any small “upticks” or “downticks” in temperature that last less than several hundred years in our compilation of paleoclimate data are probably not robust, as stated in the paper.'




You can't do much better than that for any paleotemperature data set.

So your little band of reprobate denialists has heard of this study, but prefers the Greenland study as a guide to global temperature.

Interesting. 

A more pertinent question might have been along the lines of "What makes the past 50 years stick out like the proverbial  in terms of temperature range"
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Re: Boiled Frogs use Flawed Metrics
Reply #53 - Apr 2nd, 2016 at 9:27pm
 
John_Taverner wrote on Apr 2nd, 2016 at 8:44pm:
So your little band of reprobate denialists has heard of this study, but prefers the Greenland study as a guide to global temperature.

Interesting. 



Who denies climate changes?

John_Taverner wrote on Apr 2nd, 2016 at 8:44pm:
A more pertinent question might have been along the lines of "What makes the past 50 years stick out like the proverbial  in terms of temperature range"



So we only want 50 years of data? All else is inconvenient. 50 years is not even one man's lifetime.

Isn't it amazing that you can't find what is written by Marcott and Shakun saying it is not robust, palatable?

I thought you were saying "this is unprecedented"? Grin Grin
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Re: Boiled Frogs use Flawed Metrics
Reply #54 - Apr 3rd, 2016 at 8:35am
 
lee wrote on Apr 2nd, 2016 at 9:27pm:
So we only want 50 years of data? All else is inconvenient. 50 years is not even one man's lifetime.

Isn't it amazing that you can't find what is written by Marcott and Shakun saying it is not robust, palatable?

I thought you were saying "this is unprecedented"? Grin Grin


Both Marcott and Shakun provide independent studies that totally refute your assertion that the temperature has been rising since the last glaciation. 

This is the case regardless of whether you take 150 year running means or not. 

If you compare the studies with other paleotemperature studies, the data is perfectly valid.  There is agreement with many other such studies.  You can get finer detail as you get into more recent times. By the way, if you numpties are still stuck in the late 1990s  denying what you call the hockey stick based on the now ancient work of Mann, here are another 12 independent Northern Hemisphere  studies for you to deny:

...

Time to move on from Hockey Stick denial guys. That was 27 years ago. The world of climatology has progressed since then, just as the rest of the world has.  It has also moved on from being called the Hockey Stick by the way. Some now call it the "wheelchair". Whatever you call it, the data is well established.

As for the data from the Industrial period, we actually have this data from a number of sources. Of course it becomes more accurate once we enter the time of instrumental readings.

Even if you were to make a 150 year running average (why on earth would anybody do that?), you'd still have a rising trend.  To do so would be pointless.

What is your obsession with paleodata anyway? It's irrelevant simply because the crux of the matter is radiative forcing.  That is basic science. 

Regardless of what natural variation has looked like in the dim and distant past, what is starting to manifest itself now  is an enormous signal of anthropogenic global warming superimposed on that natural variation, a signal which  is becoming even more difficult to deny.

Even the paid bloggers like "MicroWatts" are having trouble getting enough numpties like you two to help them with cherry picking and half truths as it becomes more obvious that professional scientists have got it right after all.   

You see, as Global Warming becomes more and more obvious, you eventually run out of m0rons who are prepared to announce impending Ice Ages or something equally as silly.
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« Last Edit: Apr 3rd, 2016 at 8:57am by John_Taverner »  
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Re: Boiled Frogs use Flawed Metrics
Reply #55 - Apr 3rd, 2016 at 8:58am
 
Professor I'm disappointed in you, I thought you were a man that looks all the evidence, if you're pining your hopes on Marcott and Shakun who have been proven to be no better than Mann and ignore all other evidence then how can you consider yourself a scientist.

Isn't a scientist sceptical until the theory and its computations can be proven in the real world by observations.....???

How can you choose to ignore the multitude of over whelming evidence that goes against these fraudsters that produce hockey sticks from their studies to suggest current temperatures are unusual when its evident in our history that we have had warmer periods than we are experiencing now.

Its the hyperdrive for you professor...big FAIL and disappointing to say the least.

http://www.co2science.org/data/mwp/mwpp.php

...

Medieval warm period warmer than today.

Dahl_Jensen et al 1998
Wagner & Melles 2001
Kaplan et al 2002
Jiang et al 2002
Moore et al 2001
Grudd et al 2002
Seppa & Birks 2002
Dansgaard et al 1975
Korhola et al 2000
Naurzbaev et al 2002
Vaganov et el 1996
Briffa et al 1998
Scweingruber & Briffa 1996
Knudsen et al 2004
Grinsted et al 2006
Besonen et al 2008
Wagner et al 2008
Vare et al 2009
Norgaard-Pedersen & Mikkelsen 2009
Andresen et al 2004
Vinther et al 2010
Kobashi et al 2010
Kobashi et al 2008
Stuiver et al 1995
Dansgaard et al 1975
Jenings & Weiner 1996
Johnsen et al 2001
Vinther et al 2010
Larsen et al 2011
Hill et al 2001
Joynt & Wolfe 2001
Hantemirov & Shiyatov 2002
Andersson et al 2003
Helama et al 2005
Mazepa 2005
Weckstrom et al 2006
Jiang et al 2007
Zabenski & Gajewski 2007
Grudd 2008
Justwan et al 2008
Scire et al 2008
Axford et al 2009
Bjune et al 2009
Cook et al 2009
Fortin & Gajewski 2010
Buntgen et al 2011
Divine et al 2011
Ran et al 2011
Velle et al 2011
D’Andrea et al 2012
Esper et al 2012


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1. There has never been a more serious assault on our standard of living than Anthropogenic Global Warming..Ajax
2. "One hour of freedom is worth more than 40 years of slavery &  prison" Regas Feraeos
 
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Re: Boiled Frogs use Flawed Metrics
Reply #56 - Apr 3rd, 2016 at 9:11am
 
For anyone who is unsure, go to this site, it shows 120 proxy studies that confirm the medieval warm period (look at all the locations that have been explored), that shows temperatures back then were at least as warm as today if not warmer.

So much for your hockey stick professor.... Grin

http://www.co2science.org/data/mwp/mwpp.php

...

The IPCC did show the Medieval warm period and then for some strange reason replaced it with the now discredited and fraudulent hockey stick by Mann.


...



And to rub it in a little more there is nothing wrong with the graph I have shown.


Quote:
Showing from 200 to 11000 years ago, the subsequent graph is based on ice core data, readily visible in files hosted on the servers of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA):GISP 2 and EPICA Dome C


...
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« Last Edit: Apr 3rd, 2016 at 9:27am by Ajax »  

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Re: Boiled Frogs use Flawed Metrics
Reply #57 - Apr 3rd, 2016 at 9:24am
 
Ajax wrote on Apr 3rd, 2016 at 8:58am:
How can you choose to ignore the multitude of over whelming evidence that goes against these fraudsters that produce hockey sticks from their studies to suggest current temperatures are unusual when its evident in our history that we have had warmer periods than we are experiencing now.




OK, so any peer reviewed work that disagrees with your conspiracy theories is now fraud.  So let me get this right. Mann is a fraud, All the 12 authors of the proxy studies previously mentioned are frauds. Marcott is a fraud. Shakun is a fraud. There has been a 10 year conspiracy involving thousands and thousands of scientists (evil b@stards) and we should place our trust in Micro Watt, Joanne Nova and other unqualified hacks.   

In addition to that, we should go through a list of Ajax supplied highly localised studies, including one in a single location in Norway all to prove that the Medieval Warm period was warmer than today. ( Of course it isn't, but the whole business of the Medieval Warm Period is a red herring anyway)

You must love this site:

http://www.debunking911.com/

Please tell us more Ajax. Your posts are always very entertaining   Grin
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« Last Edit: Apr 3rd, 2016 at 9:34am by John_Taverner »  
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Re: Boiled Frogs use Flawed Metrics
Reply #58 - Apr 3rd, 2016 at 9:33am
 
John_Taverner wrote on Apr 3rd, 2016 at 9:24am:
Ajax wrote on Apr 3rd, 2016 at 8:58am:
How can you choose to ignore the multitude of over whelming evidence that goes against these fraudsters that produce hockey sticks from their studies to suggest current temperatures are unusual when its evident in our history that we have had warmer periods than we are experiencing now.




OK, so any peer reviewed work that disagrees with your conspiracy theories is now fraud. 

You must love this site:

http://www.debunking911.com/

Grin


Professor you keep shooting yourself n the foot with your very own evidence.

This site you provided shows one of the towers broken into to two, the top one third looks like its going to topple over.

That's what should've happened, after all those bombs were detonated at that point and time, maybe an oversight by the demolition team.

Instead the top third of the building was pulverized into dust by explosives, how can you explain that one professor, what crushed the top third of the building...???

There is your evidence, thanks to you professor.

The world trade centre was demolished.


http://www.debunking911.com/
...
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« Last Edit: Apr 3rd, 2016 at 1:08pm by Ajax »  

1. There has never been a more serious assault on our standard of living than Anthropogenic Global Warming..Ajax
2. "One hour of freedom is worth more than 40 years of slavery &  prison" Regas Feraeos
 
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Re: Boiled Frogs use Flawed Metrics
Reply #59 - Apr 3rd, 2016 at 9:38am
 
Ajax wrote on Apr 3rd, 2016 at 9:33am:
This site you provided shows one of the towers broken into to two, the top one third looks like its going to topple over.

That's what should've happened.

Instead it was pulverized into dust by explosives.

There is your evidence thanks professor.

The world trade centre was demolished.



Priceless.  You have just killed any credibility you had with any newbies reading this site.  Lee must be embarrassed by now, but he won't show it.

How are the moon landing conspiracies going?

...
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