Australian Politics Forum - Cash got less first preferences than Muir

Redmond Neck

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Cash got less first preferences than Muir
Mar 21^st, 2016 at 10:09am

To all the minor party bashers out there, this shows that all is not what it seems.

Some preference deals are apparently OK but not others

March 17, 2016
First Preference Votes for Elected Senators

Since the debate over the government's proposed changes to Senate electoral laws got underway, a common statistic to be thrown around is how many first preference votes elected candidates received.

A common one is that Ricky Muir with 479 first preference votes had more votes than than Employment Minister Michaelia Cash with 349.

But as with the 2010 tale of DLP candidate John Madigan getting more votes than Julia Gillard, the Muir/Cash comparison falls into the category of correct but irrelevant detail.

John Madigan did poll more votes than Julia Gillard in 2010, 75,145 votes for his party compared to 66,298 for Gillard.

But the comparison was irrelevant because Gillard's vote was 64.3% from around 110,000 votes in her seat of Lalor, while Madigan's vote was 2.3% in a Senate vote of more than 3.5 million. The nearest to a like with like comparison was the DLP polling only 3165 Senate votes in Lalor.

The Muir/Cash comparison is similarly irrelevant because

They didn't contest the same state, Cash in WA, Muir in Victoria.
Victoria has 2.5 times as many voters so Cash's percentage was 0.0266% versus Muir 0.0142%.
Cash was number two on the Liberal ticket, Muir one, and lead candidates almost always get more votes than lower placed candidates.
With 96.5% of votes being ticket votes, quoting personal first preferences ignores the fact that Cash's Liberal group had 513,639 votes (39.2%) compared to Muir's Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party which had 17,122 votes (0.5%) in total.

The electoral system used in the Senate is a variant of proportional representation by single-transferable vote, or PR-STV for short. Sometimes it is called quota preferential voting as candidates are elected using both quotas and preferences.

Candidates need a quota of votes equal to 1/7th of the formal vote to be elected.1 The quota can consist of both first preferences for the candidate as well as further preferences from elected or excluded candidates.

The counting procedure has two methods of distributing preferences, top down by preferences from the surpluses of elected candidates with more than a quota of votes, and bottom up with preferences from candidates excluded for having the fewest votes in the count.

By law all group ticket votes must begin with preferences for the party's candidates in the order they are printed on the ballot paper. There are no ordering requirements beyond the party's own candidates.

The proposed electoral system does away with group voting tickets, but the above the line option retains the principle that preferences for candidates will be as printed on the ballot paper.

Under the current system and the proposed system, all above the line votes for a party will be implied as being for the lead candidate of the party.

The count proceeds by distributing the surplus to quota votes of elected candidates before dealing with the preferences of excluded candidates. It is a procedure that was followed before ticket voting was introduced for the Senate. With only rare and long past exceptions, it always sees a party's vote elect the party's candidates in order down the party ticket.

So when Michaelia Cash was elected, 100% of the votes that elected her were Liberal votes. In Senator Muir's case, only 3.5% of the votes that elected him were votes for the Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party.

But let me take seriously for a moment the question of first preferences. Who were the elected candidates from 2013 and what did they poll as first preferences, that is excluding all party votes cast above the line.

The table below shows the first preferences for all candidates, and the percentage vote, ordered in descending percentage vote order. Percentage vote is used to take account of the different sized jurisdictions contested. The WA votes come from the 2013 election, not the 2014 re-election.

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« Last Edit: Mar 21^st, 2016 at 10:17am by Redmond Neck »

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Redmond Neck

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Re: Cash got less first preferences than Muir
Reply #1 - Mar 21^st, 2016 at 10:10am

(cont)

There are some pretty obvious observations to make from the table.

27 candidates were elected from position one on a party group, 10 from position two and three from positions three.
The below the line total for candidates was obviously highest for candidates at the top of the ticket. 24 of the 26 top polling candidates were in position one, with the other position one candidates being David Leyonhjelm (31st), Ricky Muir (38th) and Wayne Dropulich (40th).
Candidates generally had larger percentage votes in smaller states compared to larger states.
The Greens did particularly well with first preferences, mainly because Green voters were more likely to vote below the line.
The highest polling candidates in votes were Janet Rice (GRN VIC) with 31,311 and Nick Xenophon (NXT SA) with 24,362.
BTL votes for the 40 elected Senators represented 1.7% of all votes. Once you include ATL votes the elected candidates represented 79.1% of first preference votes.
The highest first preference percentage vote for a candidate was 6.96 for Greens ACT candidate Simon Sheik.

What this information shows is how irrelevant first preference votes for candidates is as a measure of support. The election was overwhelmingly determined by party ATL votes.

There may be more first preference BTL votes under the proposed electoral system. The rate of BTL voting at the 2014 Victorian Legislative Council election, where a minimum five preferences are required, was 6.1% compared to 2.7% at the 2013 Victorian Senate election. However, as the Victorian Legislative Council retains group voting tickets, the result was still determined by party tickets rather than voter preferences.

Footnotes:

1 - Under the proposed system, the increased number of exhausted votes means that the final candidates in some states can be declared elected with fewer than a quota of votes. If seats remain to be filled, and no further candidates remain to be excluded and distributed, then the remaining candidate with the highest votes will be declared elected. This would be remaining candidates if more than one vacancy remains to be filled.

Posted by Antony Green on March 17, 2016 at 04:04 PM in Federal Politics and Governments, Senate Elections | Permalink

http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2016/03/first-preference-votes-for-elected-s...

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« Last Edit: Mar 21^st, 2016 at 10:22am by Redmond Neck »

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John Smith Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 78311 Gender:	Re: Cash got less first preferences than Muir Reply #2 - Mar 21^st, 2016 at 11:00am sinidosis didn't fare to well either.
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Bias_2012

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Re: Cash got less first preferences than Muir
Reply #3 - Mar 21^st, 2016 at 11:06am

What does it matter, the out of date Libs and Labs rig the entire system anyway. Every so often they update their rigging to retain their advantage. The Electoral Commission is full of Lib Lab plants put there to maintain that advantage

Do you think the Libs and Labs will ever allow a minor party to rise to the top and win government ? You'd be dreaming, you'd be just insane

One day we'll wake up to them. But I doubt it

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Bias_2012 Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 10766 Gender:	Re: Cash got less first preferences than Muir Reply #4 - Mar 21^st, 2016 at 11:19am Watching big mouth 349 Michaelia mouthing off on ABC 24 now. My tv is overheating dealing with her motor-mouth BS
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Redmond Neck Gold Member Offline OzPolitic Posts: 23006 ACT Gender:	Re: Cash got less first preferences than Muir Reply #5 - Mar 21^st, 2016 at 12:34pm This just makes me think the rightards moaning about Muir and co should all go and get stuffed. Muir has as much right to be their as anyone else he won fair and square by organising his preferences well. Well done Ricky, Lazzo and even that dopey sheila from Tasmania
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John Smith Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 78311 Gender:	Re: Cash got less first preferences than Muir Reply #6 - Mar 21^st, 2016 at 12:39pm Redmond Neck wrote on Mar 21^st, 2016 at 12:34pm: Well done Ricky, Lazzo and even that dopey sheila from Tasmania Bishop's not from Tassie
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Redmond Neck Gold Member Offline OzPolitic Posts: 23006 ACT Gender:	Cash elected with only 349 votes a disgrace Reply #7 - Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 7:32am Senator cash was elected despite only getting 349 votes. What do you reckon cods? A bigger disgrace than Muir.
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cods

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Re: Cash got less first preferences than Muir
Reply #8 - Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 7:47am

Redmond Neck wrote on Mar 21^st, 2016 at 12:34pm:

This just makes me think the rightards moaning about Muir and co should all go and get stuffed.

Muir has as much right to be their as anyone else he won fair and square by organising his preferences well.

Well done Ricky, Lazzo and even that dopey sheila from Tasmania

Jacqui Lambie 1.500... Roll Eyes

and you call that a WIN..

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cods

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Re: Cash elected with only 349 votes a disgrace
Reply #9 - Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 7:49am

Redmond Neck wrote on Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 7:32am:

Senator cash was elected despite only getting 349 votes.

What do you reckon cods?

A bigger disgrace than Muir.

I DO.... ITS WRONG>>>

I dont play sides like you do..

if I thin k sits a disgrace for one....then it goes for all..

maybe if you lefties thought like that... and not about getting across the line no matter what it costs.. Angry

this country just may end up being GREAT again one day.

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Redmond Neck Gold Member Offline OzPolitic Posts: 23006 ACT Gender:	Re: Cash got less first preferences than Muir Reply #10 - Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 7:55am Well it wont be any better after the new GreensCoaltion rules come in Cash will probably only need about 175. The whole thing is a bit dodgy Names should all be on the sheet with no party voting just number the alphabetically placed individuals 1 to 6 (or 1 to 12 in DD) in your order of choice
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macman

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Re: Cash elected with only 349 votes a disgrace
Reply #11 - Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 7:55am

cods wrote on Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 7:49am:

Redmond Neck wrote on Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 7:32am:

Senator cash was elected despite only getting 349 votes.

What do you reckon cods?

A bigger disgrace than Muir.

I DO.... ITS WRONG>>>

I dont play sides like you do..

if I thin k sits a disgrace for one....then it goes for all..

maybe if you lefties thought like that... and not about getting across the line no matter what it costs.. Angry

this country just may end up being GREAT again one day.

Not with the succession of id iot coalition governments we've had lately.

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John Smith Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 78311 Gender:	Re: Cash got less first preferences than Muir Reply #12 - Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 8:00am cods wrote on Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 7:49am: I dont play sides like you do..
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cods

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Re: Cash got less first preferences than Muir
Reply #13 - Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 8:01am

Redmond Neck wrote on Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 7:55am:

Well it wont be any better after the new GreensCoaltion rules come in Cash will probably only need about 175.

The whole thing is a bit dodgy

Names should all be on the sheet with no party voting just number the alphabetically placed individuals 1 to 6 (or 1 to 12 in DD)

I dont know much about it red.. but you didnt really answer my question did you...

you lefties dont think the rules should apply to all parties..... even the POP UP ones...'

'and you seem to think the pop up ones are a good idea...

what do you think about people like lambie and lazarus who got in on someones else coattails...then bails out within 12 months?

???????????????

I personally think its disgraceful they are allowed to continue..

but I presume you are okay with that.....because they did better than cash.

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cods

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Re: Cash elected with only 349 votes a disgrace
Reply #14 - Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 8:02am

macman wrote on Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 7:55am:

cods wrote on Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 7:49am:

Redmond Neck wrote on Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 7:32am:

Senator cash was elected despite only getting 349 votes.

What do you reckon cods?

A bigger disgrace than Muir.

I DO.... ITS WRONG>>>

I dont play sides like you do..

if I thin k sits a disgrace for one....then it goes for all..

maybe if you lefties thought like that... and not about getting across the line no matter what it costs.. Angry

this country just may end up being GREAT again one day.

Not with the succession of id iot coalition governments we've had lately.

I think you should take a look at the senate...

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