Australian Politics Forum

Bam Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21905 Gender:	Re: Latest poll Reply #90 - Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 4:05pm John Smith wrote on Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 3:28pm: longweekend58 wrote on Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 3:27pm: show proof. but you ignore proof when it is shown to you longie. ... have you addressed your lies about your predictions to the QLD election yet? He won't.
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Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 51474 Gender:	Re: Latest poll Reply #91 - Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 4:08pm As well as lots of abuse, as well as lots of making sh1t up Longy does lots of running away.
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stunspore Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 5097 Gender:	Re: Latest poll Reply #92 - Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 4:12pm Was on the radio. Some new poll that combines all other polls rate libs winning at 53% - win but losing some of their majority. Which is about right I suppose.
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Melanias purse Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 101371	Re: Latest poll Reply #93 - Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 4:17pm Jovial Monk wrote on Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 4:08pm: As well as lots of abuse, as well as lots of making sh1t up Longy does lots of running away. He's that good.
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Bam

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Re: Latest poll
Reply #94 - Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 5:40pm

stunspore wrote on Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 4:12pm:

Was on the radio. Some new poll that combines all other polls rate libs winning at 53% - win but losing some of their majority. Which is about right I suppose.

That kind of aggregate is difficult to substantiate on recent opinion polling which has the Coalition's 2PP in the past month or so at 50-50 in five polls, 51-49 in one, behind 49.5 to 50.5 in one. Only about two polls in the past month has them ahead 52-48 or better. Where does the 53% come from?

A fairer aggregate based on those polls would not have the Coalition ahead by as much. 51-49 or so is closer to the mark.

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You are not entitled to your opinion. You are only entitled to hold opinions that you can defend through sound, reasoned argument.

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longweekend58

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Re: Latest poll
Reply #95 - Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 7:12pm

Jovial Monk wrote on Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 3:35pm:

Mechanical or electrical failure of brand new node cabinets? You serious?

Ask the people of Walkerville how well their FTTN worked in hot weather. Down for over a day. Turncoat should not have over ridden experienced engineers and selected small cabinets for political reasons. Then again, nowhere else in the world has an idiot bought a crappy, end-of-life copper network to run FTTN over it. This is lunacy never seen before!

No wonder Lib support is declining as are Turncoat’s approvals.

so it is ONE cabinet that has failed and NOT for reasons of temperature. imagine that.. technology breaking down, because no other technology does that... ever

idiot (and liar)

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longweekend58

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Re: Latest poll
Reply #96 - Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 7:15pm

Bam wrote on Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 5:40pm:

stunspore wrote on Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 4:12pm:

Was on the radio. Some new poll that combines all other polls rate libs winning at 53% - win but losing some of their majority. Which is about right I suppose.

That kind of aggregate is difficult to substantiate on recent opinion polling which has the Coalition's 2PP in the past month or so at 50-50 in five polls, 51-49 in one, behind 49.5 to 50.5 in one. Only about two polls in the past month has them ahead 52-48 or better. Where does the 53% come from?

A fairer aggregate based on those polls would not have the Coalition ahead by as much. 51-49 or so is closer to the mark.

the technical problem with these 'aggregates' is that they assume equal value. Ipsos is hopeless. Morgan flops all over the place and simply cannot be accurate with all that variation. Essential is no better. Newspollhas the record of a 1% error rate. That is who shoudl be taken seriously. AFter all, Essential predicted a Rudd victory in 2013 a few weeks out.

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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

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Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 51474 Gender:	Re: Latest poll Reply #97 - Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 7:31pm AHHAHAHAHAHAH I SAID Longy would be dissing Morgan! Face it, chum, the Libs and Turncoat are rapidly losing support! Shorten will be the next PM.
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Jovial Monk

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Re: Latest poll
Reply #98 - Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 8:05pm

Yet another poll registering plummeting Lib support:

Quote:

Leroy ‎@Leroy_Lynch
#ReachTEL poll: TPP L/NP 52 (-2) ALP 48 (+2) Primary LIB 42.4, NAT 4.2, ALP 34.4, GRN 10.5, PUP 0.5, OTH 8.1 https://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7-news-national-poll-21march2016 … #auspol

5:59 PM - 22 Mar 2016
6 6 Retweets 1 1 like

Down down down goes the Lib support. What bottom limit will it reach? 60:40 to Labor quite possible.

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cods

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Re: Latest poll
Reply #99 - Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 8:10pm

Jovial Monk wrote on Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 8:05pm:

Yet another poll registering plummeting Lib support:

Quote:

Leroy ‎@Leroy_Lynch
#ReachTEL poll: TPP L/NP 52 (-2) ALP 48 (+2) Primary LIB 42.4, NAT 4.2, ALP 34.4, GRN 10.5, PUP 0.5, OTH 8.1 https://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7-news-national-poll-21march2016 … #auspol

5:59 PM - 22 Mar 2016
6 6 Retweets 1 1 like

Down down down goes the Lib support. What bottom limit will it reach? 60:40 to Labor quite possible.

only one lot lower the left...you have nothing monk... well not quite true to do have a loser and a cheater but not many will vote for him..

you will see..only the usual sour grape mob.

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stunspore

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Re: Latest poll
Reply #100 - Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 8:19pm

longweekend58 wrote on Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 7:15pm:

Bam wrote on Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 5:40pm:

stunspore wrote on Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 4:12pm:

Was on the radio. Some new poll that combines all other polls rate libs winning at 53% - win but losing some of their majority. Which is about right I suppose.

That kind of aggregate is difficult to substantiate on recent opinion polling which has the Coalition's 2PP in the past month or so at 50-50 in five polls, 51-49 in one, behind 49.5 to 50.5 in one. Only about two polls in the past month has them ahead 52-48 or better. Where does the 53% come from?

A fairer aggregate based on those polls would not have the Coalition ahead by as much. 51-49 or so is closer to the mark.

the technical problem with these 'aggregates' is that they assume equal value. Ipsos is hopeless. Morgan flops all over the place and simply cannot be accurate with all that variation. Essential is no better. Newspollhas the record of a 1% error rate. That is who shoudl be taken seriously. AFter all, Essential predicted a Rudd victory in 2013 a few weeks out.

The guy in charge of the new poll used previous polls' reliaibility,weights the surveys based on some sort of criteria. Regardless, it is often tough to win against first term governments. Or win cleanly without requiring support from other parties.

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skippy.

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Re: Latest poll
Reply #101 - Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 8:21pm

stunspore wrote on Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 8:19pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 7:15pm:

Bam wrote on Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 5:40pm:

stunspore wrote on Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 4:12pm:

Was on the radio. Some new poll that combines all other polls rate libs winning at 53% - win but losing some of their majority. Which is about right I suppose.

That kind of aggregate is difficult to substantiate on recent opinion polling which has the Coalition's 2PP in the past month or so at 50-50 in five polls, 51-49 in one, behind 49.5 to 50.5 in one. Only about two polls in the past month has them ahead 52-48 or better. Where does the 53% come from?

A fairer aggregate based on those polls would not have the Coalition ahead by as much. 51-49 or so is closer to the mark.

the technical problem with these 'aggregates' is that they assume equal value. Ipsos is hopeless. Morgan flops all over the place and simply cannot be accurate with all that variation. Essential is no better. Newspollhas the record of a 1% error rate. That is who shoudl be taken seriously. AFter all, Essential predicted a Rudd victory in 2013 a few weeks out.

The guy in charge of the new poll used previous polls' reliaibility,weights the surveys based on some sort of criteria. Regardless, it is often tough to win against first term governments. Or win cleanly without requiring support from other parties.

True, it is hard to win against first term governments. The difference with this one is they spent most of their first term infighting and dumped their PM in the process.

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Its time

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Re: Latest poll
Reply #102 - Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 8:26pm

skippy. wrote on Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 8:21pm:

stunspore wrote on Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 8:19pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 7:15pm:

Bam wrote on Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 5:40pm:

stunspore wrote on Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 4:12pm:

Was on the radio. Some new poll that combines all other polls rate libs winning at 53% - win but losing some of their majority. Which is about right I suppose.

That kind of aggregate is difficult to substantiate on recent opinion polling which has the Coalition's 2PP in the past month or so at 50-50 in five polls, 51-49 in one, behind 49.5 to 50.5 in one. Only about two polls in the past month has them ahead 52-48 or better. Where does the 53% come from?

A fairer aggregate based on those polls would not have the Coalition ahead by as much. 51-49 or so is closer to the mark.

the technical problem with these 'aggregates' is that they assume equal value. Ipsos is hopeless. Morgan flops all over the place and simply cannot be accurate with all that variation. Essential is no better. Newspollhas the record of a 1% error rate. That is who shoudl be taken seriously. AFter all, Essential predicted a Rudd victory in 2013 a few weeks out.

The guy in charge of the new poll used previous polls' reliaibility,weights the surveys based on some sort of criteria. Regardless, it is often tough to win against first term governments. Or win cleanly without requiring support from other parties.

True, it is hard to win against first term governments. The difference with this one is they spent most of their first term infighting and dumped their PM in the process.

The basher could well be opposition leader in a few months

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skippy.

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Re: Latest poll
Reply #103 - Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 8:43pm

Its time wrote on Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 8:26pm:

skippy. wrote on Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 8:21pm:

stunspore wrote on Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 8:19pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 7:15pm:

Bam wrote on Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 5:40pm:

stunspore wrote on Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 4:12pm:

Was on the radio. Some new poll that combines all other polls rate libs winning at 53% - win but losing some of their majority. Which is about right I suppose.

That kind of aggregate is difficult to substantiate on recent opinion polling which has the Coalition's 2PP in the past month or so at 50-50 in five polls, 51-49 in one, behind 49.5 to 50.5 in one. Only about two polls in the past month has them ahead 52-48 or better. Where does the 53% come from?

A fairer aggregate based on those polls would not have the Coalition ahead by as much. 51-49 or so is closer to the mark.

the technical problem with these 'aggregates' is that they assume equal value. Ipsos is hopeless. Morgan flops all over the place and simply cannot be accurate with all that variation. Essential is no better. Newspollhas the record of a 1% error rate. That is who shoudl be taken seriously. AFter all, Essential predicted a Rudd victory in 2013 a few weeks out.

The guy in charge of the new poll used previous polls' reliaibility,weights the surveys based on some sort of criteria. Regardless, it is often tough to win against first term governments. Or win cleanly without requiring support from other parties.

True, it is hard to win against first term governments. The difference with this one is they spent most of their first term infighting and dumped their PM in the process.

The basher could well be opposition leader in a few months

How funny would that be?
Many Liberals are saying they refuse to vote for a Turnbull lead government.
Abbott is a great opposition leader. I hope he always keeps the job. If Turnbull was to lose Abbott is probably the most likley to replace him, funny times. Grin

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longweekend58

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Re: Latest poll
Reply #104 - Mar 23^rd, 2016 at 7:55am

stunspore wrote on Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 8:19pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 7:15pm:

Bam wrote on Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 5:40pm:

stunspore wrote on Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 4:12pm:

Was on the radio. Some new poll that combines all other polls rate libs winning at 53% - win but losing some of their majority. Which is about right I suppose.

That kind of aggregate is difficult to substantiate on recent opinion polling which has the Coalition's 2PP in the past month or so at 50-50 in five polls, 51-49 in one, behind 49.5 to 50.5 in one. Only about two polls in the past month has them ahead 52-48 or better. Where does the 53% come from?

A fairer aggregate based on those polls would not have the Coalition ahead by as much. 51-49 or so is closer to the mark.

the technical problem with these 'aggregates' is that they assume equal value. Ipsos is hopeless. Morgan flops all over the place and simply cannot be accurate with all that variation. Essential is no better. Newspollhas the record of a 1% error rate. That is who shoudl be taken seriously. AFter all, Essential predicted a Rudd victory in 2013 a few weeks out.

The guy in charge of the new poll used previous polls' reliaibility,weights the surveys based on some sort of criteria. Regardless, it is often tough to win against first term governments. Or win cleanly without requiring support from other parties.

imagine if the Greens didnt exist or their preferences went elsewhere? without these green preferences Labor wouldn't have won in 2007 or 2010. in 2016 they would lose a huge number of seats.

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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

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