Latest poll on the federal government shows 51/49 TPP for the Coalition, while Turnbull is at 39% approval which is his lowest but still well ahead of Shorten at an unelectable 28%

Armchair_Politician wrote on Mar 21^st, 2016 at 8:25am:

Dream on. The difference between 28% and 39% is not that great.

Turnbull's net satisfaction is the more important measure, and it's plunging as if it's fallen off a cliff. +38 to -5 in four months is a disaster. If it falls much further, the Coalition are in trouble.

The Newspoll website has a seat projection. 78 seats for the Coalition (a loss of 12), barely a majority. It's dangerously close to minority government territory.

(Newspoll's seat projection is assuming that Joyce will hold New England and Palmer will hold Fairfax which are not safe assumptions.)

Armchair_Politician wrote on Mar 21^st, 2016 at 8:51am:

People said the same thing about Abbott.

Armchair_Politician wrote on Mar 21^st, 2016 at 9:10am:

Oh, really? 

‘Unelectable’ Tony Abbott returns conservative Liberals to power in Australian election

Stop making up crap.

Armchair_Politician wrote on Mar 21^st, 2016 at 9:10am:


Oh, they most certainly did.

"Tony Abbott - the 'unelectable' leader ... an opposition leader once derided as "unelectable" ... " Link

"Why Tony Abbott would be unelectable:

"Once in a while Andrew Bolt says something sensible on Insiders. This occurred yesterday, when he reckoned that the problem with Abbott as leader of the Liberals is that electors would suspect he believed he was answerable to a higher power than them."  Link

"Tony Abbott’s path to the Lodge has been characterised by aggression, but also a willingness to abandon the ideological and personal issues that once had him labelled “unelectable”. " Link

etc.

greggerypeccary wrote on Mar 21^st, 2016 at 10:51am:


You're both right, but Armchair's point stands. There is no way Labor will get elected with Shorten against Turnbull. Bam's scenario of a minority government is the worst case scenario for the Libs, who will definitely be elected to form government at the next election.

The most important question now is not Labor versus Liberal, it's the Liberals versus themselves. Turnbull's leadership has exposed a serious fracture in the coalition. His leadership is practically neutered by the conservatives in the party and even the Nationals, who have forced Turnbull's hand in the most ridiculous minority issues such as the Safe Schools policy - a policy implemented by Abbott.

Turnbull is so unpopular within the Libs that he faces members crossing the floor on the party's own policies. Abbott has shown that he is more than willing to undermine his own government, and he's shaping up as an opposition leader within his own party, a role he shares with Bernardi and Abetz - all backbenchers, and all allowed to cross the floor in a vote. With the support of the conservatives within the Libs (about 50%), this presents a serious problem for Turnbull. Howard's "broad church" is finished.

The conservatives in the Liberal Party are over-represented in comparison to mainstream Australia. The reason for this is conservative, predominantly Christian conservative, branch stacking, a phenomenon that has been going on - particularly in NSW - for the last decade or so. This is a crowd of largely Bible-belt conservatives, who've learned politics from the lunar right in the US - many, like Bernardi, having spent time campaigning for the Republicans. They believe they have a God-given right to govern, and they're prepared to play dirty to win. One of their factions from NSW, and one with numbers, is not called "the Uglies" for nothing. This was the crowd who laughed at Turnbull when he said there are no factions in the Libs. Their laughter was an expression of their supremacy within the party. It was a protest against Turnbull's defeat of their own man, Tony Abbott.

So forget the next election, which will see a return of the Libs to government. The big issue in Australian politics now is the growing rift within the Coalition's own ranks. The conservatives have shown they're prepared to draw blood over minority issues, irrelevant to most Australians. And on the big issues like the economy and the environment, they've got their heads in the sand.

This has the potential of reducing the government to lame-duck status, which is why Turnbull wants an election so badly. He sees this as a mandate for his own leadership, hoping it will shut up the Abbott crowd and allow him to lead in his own right. But with Abbott staying, and the factionally-aligned conservatives a sizeable majority of MPs, this is unlikely to happen. This forces Turnbull to reach out to those in his own party rather than the electorate, and it shows. His interviews and speeches are full of coded messages and concessions to the conservatives in the party.

And this is not good for Australian democracy.

Once we have a three way leader's election debate, I expect Richard Di Natale will be leading the preferred leader poll ... and by a large lead.

Armchair_Politician wrote on Mar 21^st, 2016 at 8:51am:

Copper Internet is your legacy remember: good luck in the nursing home buddy