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skippy.

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Re: Latest poll
Reply #105 - Mar 23^rd, 2016 at 8:00am

longweekend58 wrote on Mar 23^rd, 2016 at 7:55am:

stunspore wrote on Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 8:19pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 7:15pm:

Bam wrote on Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 5:40pm:

stunspore wrote on Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 4:12pm:

Was on the radio. Some new poll that combines all other polls rate libs winning at 53% - win but losing some of their majority. Which is about right I suppose.

That kind of aggregate is difficult to substantiate on recent opinion polling which has the Coalition's 2PP in the past month or so at 50-50 in five polls, 51-49 in one, behind 49.5 to 50.5 in one. Only about two polls in the past month has them ahead 52-48 or better. Where does the 53% come from?

A fairer aggregate based on those polls would not have the Coalition ahead by as much. 51-49 or so is closer to the mark.

the technical problem with these 'aggregates' is that they assume equal value. Ipsos is hopeless. Morgan flops all over the place and simply cannot be accurate with all that variation. Essential is no better. Newspollhas the record of a 1% error rate. That is who shoudl be taken seriously. AFter all, Essential predicted a Rudd victory in 2013 a few weeks out.

The guy in charge of the new poll used previous polls' reliaibility,weights the surveys based on some sort of criteria. Regardless, it is often tough to win against first term governments. Or win cleanly without requiring support from other parties.

imagine if the Greens didnt exist or their preferences went elsewhere? without these green preferences Labor wouldn't have won in 2007 or 2010. in 2016 they would lose a huge number of seats.

If the Greens didn't exist Labor would just get more votes. They certainly wouldn't go to the Coaltion. Roll Eyes

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Vic

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Melbourne Victoria
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Re: Latest poll
Reply #106 - Mar 23^rd, 2016 at 8:23am

skippy. wrote on Mar 23^rd, 2016 at 8:00am:

longweekend58 wrote on Mar 23^rd, 2016 at 7:55am:

stunspore wrote on Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 8:19pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 7:15pm:

Bam wrote on Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 5:40pm:

stunspore wrote on Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 4:12pm:

Was on the radio. Some new poll that combines all other polls rate libs winning at 53% - win but losing some of their majority. Which is about right I suppose.

That kind of aggregate is difficult to substantiate on recent opinion polling which has the Coalition's 2PP in the past month or so at 50-50 in five polls, 51-49 in one, behind 49.5 to 50.5 in one. Only about two polls in the past month has them ahead 52-48 or better. Where does the 53% come from?

A fairer aggregate based on those polls would not have the Coalition ahead by as much. 51-49 or so is closer to the mark.

the technical problem with these 'aggregates' is that they assume equal value. Ipsos is hopeless. Morgan flops all over the place and simply cannot be accurate with all that variation. Essential is no better. Newspollhas the record of a 1% error rate. That is who shoudl be taken seriously. AFter all, Essential predicted a Rudd victory in 2013 a few weeks out.

The guy in charge of the new poll used previous polls' reliaibility,weights the surveys based on some sort of criteria. Regardless, it is often tough to win against first term governments. Or win cleanly without requiring support from other parties.

imagine if the Greens didnt exist or their preferences went elsewhere? without these green preferences Labor wouldn't have won in 2007 or 2010. in 2016 they would lose a huge number of seats.

If the Greens didn't exist Labor would just get more votes. They certainly wouldn't go to the Coaltion. Roll Eyes

If the Greens didn't exist, the Coalition wouldn't be able to suck up to them to pass legislation in the Senate.

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longweekend58

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Re: Latest poll
Reply #107 - Mar 23^rd, 2016 at 4:01pm

skippy. wrote on Mar 23^rd, 2016 at 8:00am:

longweekend58 wrote on Mar 23^rd, 2016 at 7:55am:

stunspore wrote on Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 8:19pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 7:15pm:

Bam wrote on Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 5:40pm:

stunspore wrote on Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 4:12pm:

Was on the radio. Some new poll that combines all other polls rate libs winning at 53% - win but losing some of their majority. Which is about right I suppose.

That kind of aggregate is difficult to substantiate on recent opinion polling which has the Coalition's 2PP in the past month or so at 50-50 in five polls, 51-49 in one, behind 49.5 to 50.5 in one. Only about two polls in the past month has them ahead 52-48 or better. Where does the 53% come from?

A fairer aggregate based on those polls would not have the Coalition ahead by as much. 51-49 or so is closer to the mark.

the technical problem with these 'aggregates' is that they assume equal value. Ipsos is hopeless. Morgan flops all over the place and simply cannot be accurate with all that variation. Essential is no better. Newspollhas the record of a 1% error rate. That is who shoudl be taken seriously. AFter all, Essential predicted a Rudd victory in 2013 a few weeks out.

The guy in charge of the new poll used previous polls' reliaibility,weights the surveys based on some sort of criteria. Regardless, it is often tough to win against first term governments. Or win cleanly without requiring support from other parties.

imagine if the Greens didnt exist or their preferences went elsewhere? without these green preferences Labor wouldn't have won in 2007 or 2010. in 2016 they would lose a huge number of seats.

If the Greens didn't exist Labor would just get more votes. They certainly wouldn't go to the Coaltion. Roll Eyes

80% of green preferences go to labor, the rest to the libs. And that 20% is in defiance of the how-to-vote card. It is closer to 30% of green voters who woult hen revert to libs if the Greens disappeared.

the Greens ensure Labor's viability. Without them, they would struggle to win an election at all anywhere.

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Jovial Monk

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Re: Latest poll
Reply #108 - Mar 23^rd, 2016 at 4:55pm

longweekend58 wrote on Mar 23^rd, 2016 at 4:01pm:

skippy. wrote on Mar 23^rd, 2016 at 8:00am:

longweekend58 wrote on Mar 23^rd, 2016 at 7:55am:

stunspore wrote on Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 8:19pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 7:15pm:

Bam wrote on Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 5:40pm:

stunspore wrote on Mar 22^nd, 2016 at 4:12pm:

Was on the radio. Some new poll that combines all other polls rate libs winning at 53% - win but losing some of their majority. Which is about right I suppose.

That kind of aggregate is difficult to substantiate on recent opinion polling which has the Coalition's 2PP in the past month or so at 50-50 in five polls, 51-49 in one, behind 49.5 to 50.5 in one. Only about two polls in the past month has them ahead 52-48 or better. Where does the 53% come from?

A fairer aggregate based on those polls would not have the Coalition ahead by as much. 51-49 or so is closer to the mark.

the technical problem with these 'aggregates' is that they assume equal value. Ipsos is hopeless. Morgan flops all over the place and simply cannot be accurate with all that variation. Essential is no better. Newspollhas the record of a 1% error rate. That is who shoudl be taken seriously. AFter all, Essential predicted a Rudd victory in 2013 a few weeks out.

The guy in charge of the new poll used previous polls' reliaibility,weights the surveys based on some sort of criteria. Regardless, it is often tough to win against first term governments. Or win cleanly without requiring support from other parties.

imagine if the Greens didnt exist or their preferences went elsewhere? without these green preferences Labor wouldn't have won in 2007 or 2010. in 2016 they would lose a huge number of seats.

If the Greens didn't exist Labor would just get more votes. They certainly wouldn't go to the Coaltion. Roll Eyes

80% of green preferences go to labor, the rest to the libs. And that 20% is in defiance of the how-to-vote card. It is closer to 30% of green voters who woult hen revert to libs if the Greens disappeared.

the Greens ensure Labor's viability. Without them, they would struggle to win an election at all anywhere.

NO, 80% what would have been Green votes would go to Labor, 20% to Libs (Greens are Libs in Green coats.) When there is no HTV card Green prefs go 75% to Labor, 25% to Libs.

Greens are about to replay the decline of the Democrats.

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John Smith Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 78311 Gender:	Re: Latest poll Reply #109 - Mar 23^rd, 2016 at 4:56pm longweekend58 wrote on Mar 23^rd, 2016 at 4:01pm: 80% of green preferences go to labor, the rest to the libs. are you pulling numbers out of your ar$e again?
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Aussie Gold Member Offline OzPolitic Posts: 39716 Gender:	Re: Latest poll Reply #110 - Mar 23^rd, 2016 at 5:07pm John Smith wrote on Mar 23^rd, 2016 at 4:56pm: longweekend58 wrote on Mar 23^rd, 2016 at 4:01pm: 80% of green preferences go to labor, the rest to the libs. are you pulling numbers out of your ar$e again? Of course he is. Why expect anything else? Link.
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Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 51474 Gender:	Re: Latest poll Reply #111 - Mar 23^rd, 2016 at 5:14pm Those numbers are for OPV with huge exhaustion of Green snot errrr votes. Apparently you can use real photos of and accuse members of rooting their living (and 10 year dead) dogs here and not be punished. Much else in that foul avatar is offensive and abusive. But is OK, apparently.
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longweekend58

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Re: Latest poll
Reply #112 - Mar 23^rd, 2016 at 5:27pm

Jovial Monk wrote on Mar 23^rd, 2016 at 5:14pm:

Those numbers are for OPV with huge exhaustion of Green snot errrr votes.

http://i1263.photobucket.com/albums/ii636/maxine124/Political%20Animal/Super_Nov...

Apparently you can use real photos of and accuse members of rooting their living (and 10 year dead) dogs here and not be punished. Much else in that foul avatar is offensive and abusive. But is OK, apparently.

I find your endless lies offensive. liek the over-heating cabinet lie for which you have never once shown any evidence or proof.

LIAR

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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

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Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 51474 Gender:	Re: Latest poll Reply #113 - Mar 23^rd, 2016 at 5:40pm MY LIES? Oh Longy! Apparently you can use real photos of and accuse members of rooting their living (and 10 year dead) dogs here and not be punished. Much else in that foul avatar is offensive and abusive. But is OK, apparently.
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John Smith

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Re: Latest poll
Reply #114 - Mar 23^rd, 2016 at 5:42pm

longweekend58 wrote on Mar 23^rd, 2016 at 5:27pm:

Jovial Monk wrote on Mar 23^rd, 2016 at 5:14pm:

Those numbers are for OPV with huge exhaustion of Green snot errrr votes.

[url]http://i1263.photobucket.com/albums/ii636/maxine124/Political Animal/Super_Nova_disgusting_avatar_zpslaiqhxpf.jpg[/url]

Apparently you can use real photos of and accuse members of rooting their living (and 10 year dead) dogs here and not be punished. Much else in that foul avatar is offensive and abusive. But is OK, apparently.

I find your endless lies offensive. liek the over-heating cabinet lie for which you have never once shown any evidence or proof.

LIAR

You must really take offense every time you look in a mirror then. Do you keep a vomit bag near each of your mirrors?

Do you still want to pretend you never claimed the libs would win govt. in Qld? Grin

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longweekend58

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Re: Latest poll
Reply #115 - Mar 23^rd, 2016 at 5:51pm

John Smith wrote on Mar 23^rd, 2016 at 5:42pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Mar 23^rd, 2016 at 5:27pm:

Jovial Monk wrote on Mar 23^rd, 2016 at 5:14pm:

Those numbers are for OPV with huge exhaustion of Green snot errrr votes.

[url]http://i1263.photobucket.com/albums/ii636/maxine124/Political Animal/Super_Nova_disgusting_avatar_zpslaiqhxpf.jpg[/url]

Apparently you can use real photos of and accuse members of rooting their living (and 10 year dead) dogs here and not be punished. Much else in that foul avatar is offensive and abusive. But is OK, apparently.

I find your endless lies offensive. liek the over-heating cabinet lie for which you have never once shown any evidence or proof.

LIAR

You must really take offense every time you look in a mirror then. Do you keep a vomit bag near each of your mirrors?

Do you still want to pretend you never claimed the libs would win govt. in Qld? Grin

look you dimwitted, half-breed... I have always stated I predicted an LNP victory in QLD. Often. Repeatedly. as did most of the professionals as well.

now. I look forward to the NEXT TIME YOU ASK THIS same question because your alzheimers makes you forget... again.

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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

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Its time

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Re: Latest poll
Reply #116 - Mar 23^rd, 2016 at 5:59pm

longweekend58 wrote on Mar 23^rd, 2016 at 5:51pm:

John Smith wrote on Mar 23^rd, 2016 at 5:42pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Mar 23^rd, 2016 at 5:27pm:

Jovial Monk wrote on Mar 23^rd, 2016 at 5:14pm:

Those numbers are for OPV with huge exhaustion of Green snot errrr votes.

[url]http://i1263.photobucket.com/albums/ii636/maxine124/Political Animal/Super_Nova_disgusting_avatar_zpslaiqhxpf.jpg[/url]

Apparently you can use real photos of and accuse members of rooting their living (and 10 year dead) dogs here and not be punished. Much else in that foul avatar is offensive and abusive. But is OK, apparently.

I find your endless lies offensive. liek the over-heating cabinet lie for which you have never once shown any evidence or proof.

LIAR

You must really take offense every time you look in a mirror then. Do you keep a vomit bag near each of your mirrors?

Do you still want to pretend you never claimed the libs would win govt. in Qld? Grin

look you dimwitted, half-breed... I have always stated I predicted an LNP victory in QLD. Often. Repeatedly. as did most of the professionals as well.

now. I look forward to the NEXT TIME YOU ASK THIS same question because your alzheimers makes you forget... again.

6 weeks you dissapeared , ahhh i remember it like yesterday , when is Maria coming back so you can quote her in posts again Cheesy

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John Smith

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Re: Latest poll
Reply #117 - Mar 23^rd, 2016 at 6:59pm

longweekend58 wrote on Mar 23^rd, 2016 at 5:51pm:

look you dimwitted, half-breed... I have always stated I predicted an LNP victory in QLD. Often. Repeatedly. as did most of the professionals as well.

now. I look forward to the NEXT TIME YOU ASK THIS same question because your alzheimers makes you forget... again.
Posted by: John Smith Mark & Quote Quote

ahh, yes longie. My mistake, you denied that you ever claimed the libs would win easily .... doesn't make you any less of a liar.

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Our esteemed leader:
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skippy.

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Re: Latest poll
Reply #118 - Mar 23^rd, 2016 at 9:24pm

Jovial Monk wrote on Mar 23^rd, 2016 at 5:40pm:

MY LIES? Oh Longy!

http://i1263.photobucket.com/albums/ii636/maxine124/Political%20Animal/Super_Nov...

Apparently you can use real photos of and accuse members of rooting their living (and 10 year dead) dogs here and not be punished. Much else in that foul avatar is offensive and abusive. But is OK, apparently.

Hey you should put your dog on a diet Monk it looks as fat as a sheep. Plus those high heels will give it shin splints. Tongue

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BatteriesNotIncluded Gold Member Offline MediocrityNET: because people died for this! Posts: 26966	Re: Latest poll Reply #119 - Mar 24^th, 2016 at 3:28am I reckon it would be more fun to root copper wire personally !!! Why try it with a fictional half dog and sheep thing when copper wire is all too real I say!
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