Australian Politics Forum - New UK Met 5 year forecats

lee

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New UK Met 5 year forecats
Feb 3^rd, 2016 at 3:11pm

'The forecast is for continued global warming largely driven by continued high levels of greenhouse gases. However, other changes in the climate system, including the largest El Niño since 1997 and longer term shifts in both the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), are also contributing. Near record temperatures are predicted for the coming five years, consistent with the Met Office annual global temperature forecast. However, the recent run of consecutive record years is likely to end in 2017 as El Niño declines. '

'Nevertheless, the recent slowdown in surface warming is still an active research topic and trends over a longer (15 year) period will take longer to respond. For further discussion on the surface warming slowdown see the Met Office reports on the recent pause in warming and on big changes underway in the climate system.'

So CO2 is still increasing but we are not expecting consecutive record years.

Natural Variability?
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/long-range/deca...

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BatteriesNotIncluded Gold Member Offline MediocrityNET: because people died for this! Posts: 26966	Re: New UK Met 5 year forecats Reply #1 - Feb 3^rd, 2016 at 3:21pm Phase Change??
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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21592 Gender:	Re: New UK Met 5 year forecats Reply #2 - Feb 3^rd, 2016 at 5:26pm Is not phase change natural variation?
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Ajax

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Re: New UK Met 5 year forecats
Reply #3 - Feb 4^th, 2016 at 6:44am

The Met office has fallen flat on its face before putting their trust in climate scientists.

Quote:

The skillful predictions of climate science

Smith et al (2007): 0.3°C in 10 years

In 2007, a team of climate scientists from the UK Met Office led by Doug Smith wrote a paper “Improved Surface Temperature Prediction for the Coming Decade from a Global Climate Model”, published in the journal Science. Although published in 2007, the paper made predictions for the decade 2004-2014. (Presumably the work was started around 2004 and it took some time for the paper to be published). The paper made claims about the “skill” of the model, for example “Having established the predictive skill of DePreSys…”

The Smith et al paper made the following specific predictions:
◾There would be 0.3°C warming over the decade 2004-2014
◾At least half of the years after 2009 would be warmer than the record year of 1998.

Note that at that time, 2007, the warmest year was thought to be 1998; subsequent adjustments to the method made 2005 warmer than 1998.

The predictions were spread far and wide. They were included in a Met Office Press release, and a glossy brochure on “Informing Government policy into the future”, with the almost obligatory scaremongering background pictures of black clouds and people wearing facemasks. Vicky Pope gave a talk on these predictions, saying that “these are very strong statements about what will happen over the next 10 years.”
And of course the faithful media reported the story without questioning it.

These predictions have turned out to be wrong. We are almost into 2014 and there has been no warming at all since 2004. Of the years since 2009, none of them have broken the record of 1998 according to HADCRUT3 data. Using HADCRUT4, 2010 is warmer by a meaningless 0.01°C (that’s one tenth of the error estimate). 2011 and 2012 were cooler and it’s now clear that 2013 will be cooler also.

The warming prediction was for 0.30° ± 0.21°C [5 to 95% confidence interval (CI)], so unless we get some significant warming over the next few months it looks as though the observations will be outside the CI of the model.

https://ipccreport.wordpress.com/2013/11/20/the-skillful-predictions-of-climate-...

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1. There has never been a more serious assault on our standard of living than Anthropogenic Global Warming..Ajax
2. "One hour of freedom is worth more than 40 years of slavery & prison" Regas Feraeos

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BatteriesNotIncluded Gold Member Offline MediocrityNET: because people died for this! Posts: 26966	Re: New UK Met 5 year forecats Reply #4 - Feb 4^th, 2016 at 5:23pm lee wrote on Feb 3^rd, 2016 at 5:26pm: Is not phase change natural variation? Lol, you're a friggin joke!
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lee

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Re: New UK Met 5 year forecats
Reply #5 - Feb 4^th, 2016 at 6:41pm

lee wrote on Feb 3^rd, 2016 at 5:26pm:

Is not phase change natural variation?

'We could precisely identify three climate state transition regions that are associated with phase transitions in standing tropical and extratropical Rossby waves. We confirm that the climate on fast-rotating planets may assume multiple states (Prot ≤ 12 d for RP = 2REarth). Our study is, however, the first to identify the type of planetary wave associated with different climate states: the first state is dominated by standing tropical Rossby waves with fast equatorial superrotation. The second state is dominated by standing extratropical Rossby waves with high-latitude westerly jets with slower wind speeds. For very fast rotations (Prot ≤ 5 d for RP = 2REarth), we find another climate state transition, where the standing tropical and extratropical Rossby wave can both fit on the planet. Thus, a third state with a mixture of the two planetary waves becomes possible that exhibits three jets. '

http://mnras.oxfordjournals.org/content/453/3/2412

Seems that the answer is yes.

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BatteriesNotIncluded

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Re: New UK Met 5 year forecats
Reply #6 - Feb 5^th, 2016 at 3:04pm

lee wrote on Feb 4^th, 2016 at 6:41pm:

lee wrote on Feb 3^rd, 2016 at 5:26pm:

Is not phase change natural variation?

'We could precisely identify three climate state transition regions that are associated with phase transitions in standing tropical and extratropical Rossby waves. We confirm that the climate on fast-rotating planets may assume multiple states (Prot ≤ 12 d for RP = 2REarth). Our study is, however, the first to identify the type of planetary wave associated with different climate states: the first state is dominated by standing tropical Rossby waves with fast equatorial superrotation. The second state is dominated by standing extratropical Rossby waves with high-latitude westerly jets with slower wind speeds. For very fast rotations (Prot ≤ 5 d for RP = 2REarth), we find another climate state transition, where the standing tropical and extratropical Rossby wave can both fit on the planet. Thus, a third state with a mixture of the two planetary waves becomes possible that exhibits three jets. '

http://mnras.oxfordjournals.org/content/453/3/2412

Seems that the answer is yes.

Seems like you are mixing up your nomenclatures for the purposes of simplistic propaganda. Grin

I win the internet again, cheers Wink

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*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is. It wouldn't be there without the tax payer. Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know.... (swaggy) *

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lee

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Re: New UK Met 5 year forecats
Reply #7 - Feb 5^th, 2016 at 3:34pm

' phase change - a change from one state (solid or liquid or gas) to another without a change in chemical composition
phase transition, physical change, state change
freeze, freezing - the withdrawal of heat to change something from a liquid to a solid
liquefaction - the conversion of a solid or a gas into a liquid
natural action, natural process, action, activity - a process existing in or produced by nature (rather than by the intent of human beings); "the action of natural forces"; "volcanic activity"
melt, melting, thaw, thawing - the process whereby heat changes something from a solid to a liquid; "the power failure caused a refrigerator melt that was a disaster"; "the thawing of a frozen turkey takes several hours"
evaporation, vaporisation, vaporization, vapour, vapor - the process of becoming a vapor'

http://www.thefreedictionary.com/phase+change

Please show where you think it is merely a product of AGW/CC.

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Chimp_Logic

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Re: New UK Met 5 year forecats
Reply #8 - Feb 5^th, 2016 at 5:00pm

Where are the theoretical and computer models that predict static or declining global temperatures as Carbon Dioxide levels rise in the earth's atmosphere?

Surely there is one model out there can be paid for and squeezed out by the Fossil fuel industry?

Of course we all know that even the fossil fuel industry accepts the science that underpins AGW.

We are only left with flat earthers, child haters and denialist lunatics - a small proportion of society, but nevertheless still swimming in their pathetic neurotic pit of putrid excrement - a sludge of their own making

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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21592 Gender:	Re: New UK Met 5 year forecats Reply #9 - Feb 5^th, 2016 at 5:21pm Chimp_Logic wrote on Feb 5^th, 2016 at 5:00pm: f course we all know that even the fossil fuel industry accepts the science that underpins AGW. Yes, they just don't accept that it is measurable, the extent to which CO2 may modify climate.
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Ajax

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Re: New UK Met 5 year forecats
Reply #10 - Feb 5^th, 2016 at 5:31pm

Chimp_Logic wrote on Feb 5^th, 2016 at 5:00pm:

Where are the theoretical and computer models that predict static or declining global temperatures as Carbon Dioxide levels rise in the earth's atmosphere?

Surely there is one model out there can be paid for and squeezed out by the Fossil fuel industry?

Of course we all know that even the fossil fuel industry accepts the science that underpins AGW.

We are only left with flat earthers, child haters and denialist lunatics - a small proportion of society, but nevertheless still swimming in their pathetic neurotic pit of putrid excrement - a sludge of their own making

Don't need models hairy arse, observations have proven the theory you worship wrong.

Now apologize and self ban for 24 hours for spreading your lies.

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« Last Edit: Feb 5^th, 2016 at 5:38pm by Ajax »

1. There has never been a more serious assault on our standard of living than Anthropogenic Global Warming..Ajax
2. "One hour of freedom is worth more than 40 years of slavery & prison" Regas Feraeos

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The_Barnacle Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 6205 Melbourne Gender:	Re: New UK Met 5 year forecats Reply #11 - Feb 7^th, 2016 at 11:15am lee wrote on Feb 3^rd, 2016 at 3:11pm: So CO2 is still increasing but we are not expecting consecutive record years. Surely you weren't expecting a geometrically perfect increase in temperature each year? There are lots of other climatic variables such as el nino. The TREND however will be continued warming.
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BatteriesNotIncluded

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Re: New UK Met 5 year forecats
Reply #12 - Feb 7^th, 2016 at 2:22pm

lee wrote on Feb 5^th, 2016 at 5:21pm:

Chimp_Logic wrote on Feb 5^th, 2016 at 5:00pm:

f course we all know that even the fossil fuel industry accepts the science that underpins AGW.

Yes, they just don't accept that it is measurable, the extent to which CO2 may modify climate.

BACK TO THE UNCERTAINTY PRINCIPLE FOR ANOTHER 50 BILLION PAGES: I LOVE CIRCLE WORK YUMMY YUMMY IN MY ****** Grin

__> CUM GET MY SUM SUM <_____

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*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is. It wouldn't be there without the tax payer. Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know.... (swaggy) *

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BatteriesNotIncluded

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Re: New UK Met 5 year forecats
Reply #13 - Feb 7^th, 2016 at 2:23pm

Ajax wrote on Feb 5^th, 2016 at 5:31pm:

Chimp_Logic wrote on Feb 5^th, 2016 at 5:00pm:

Where are the theoretical and computer models that predict static or declining global temperatures as Carbon Dioxide levels rise in the earth's atmosphere?

Surely there is one model out there can be paid for and squeezed out by the Fossil fuel industry?

Of course we all know that even the fossil fuel industry accepts the science that underpins AGW.

We are only left with flat earthers, child haters and denialist lunatics - a small proportion of society, but nevertheless still swimming in their pathetic neurotic pit of putrid excrement - a sludge of their own making

Don't need models hairy arse, observations have proven the theory you worship wrong.

Now apologize and self ban for 24 hours for spreading your lies.

http://i66.tinypic.com/28kt1d0.png

LINK, CHEERS Cheesy

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*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is. It wouldn't be there without the tax payer. Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know.... (swaggy) *

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lee

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Re: New UK Met 5 year forecats
Reply #14 - Feb 7^th, 2016 at 3:05pm

The_Barnacle wrote on Feb 7^th, 2016 at 11:15am:

Surely you weren't expecting a geometrically perfect increase in temperature each year? There are lots of other climatic variables such as el nino.
The TREND however will be continued warming.

But the father of global warming, James Hansen, said natural variability couldn't explain the temperature increase in his address to Congress in 1988.

Now apparently, natural variability can explain the slowdown, or 'hiatus' per IPCC.

You want it both ways. It can't address rapidly increasing temperatures, but it can address a slowdown in rapidly increasing temperatures. CO2 is still going up, it hasn't paused.

You are prognosticating on the trend. What means are you using? Ouija board?

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