Australian Politics Forum - New UK Met 5 year forecats

lee

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Re: New UK Met 5 year forecats
Reply #15 - Feb 7^th, 2016 at 3:10pm

BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Feb 7^th, 2016 at 2:22pm:

lee wrote on Feb 5^th, 2016 at 5:21pm:

Chimp_Logic wrote on Feb 5^th, 2016 at 5:00pm:

f course we all know that even the fossil fuel industry accepts the science that underpins AGW.

Yes, they just don't accept that it is measurable, the extent to which CO2 may modify climate.

BACK TO THE UNCERTAINTY PRINCIPLE FOR ANOTHER 50 BILLION PAGES: I LOVE CIRCLE WORK YUMMY YUMMY IN MY ****** Grin

__> CUM GET MY SUM SUM <_____

Please show where the fossil fuel industry predicts a rate of change in potential climate increase.

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BatteriesNotIncluded Gold Member Offline MediocrityNET: because people died for this! Posts: 26966	Re: New UK Met 5 year forecats Reply #16 - Feb 8^th, 2016 at 11:52am ..people died for this
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BatteriesNotIncluded Gold Member Offline MediocrityNET: because people died for this! Posts: 26966	Re: New UK Met 5 year forecats Reply #17 - Feb 8^th, 2016 at 11:52am BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Feb 8^th, 2016 at 11:52am: ..people died for this
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BatteriesNotIncluded Gold Member Offline MediocrityNET: because people died for this! Posts: 26966	Re: New UK Met 5 year forecats Reply #18 - Feb 8^th, 2016 at 11:53am BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Feb 8^th, 2016 at 11:52am: BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Feb 8^th, 2016 at 11:52am: ..people died for this
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The_Barnacle

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Re: New UK Met 5 year forecats
Reply #19 - Feb 11^th, 2016 at 9:29pm

lee wrote on Feb 7^th, 2016 at 3:05pm:

The_Barnacle wrote on Feb 7^th, 2016 at 11:15am:

Surely you weren't expecting a geometrically perfect increase in temperature each year? There are lots of other climatic variables such as el nino.
The TREND however will be continued warming.

But the father of global warming, James Hansen, said natural variability couldn't explain the temperature increase in his address to Congress in 1988.

Now apparently, natural variability can explain the slowdown, or 'hiatus' per IPCC.

You want it both ways. It can't address rapidly increasing temperatures, but it can address a slowdown in rapidly increasing temperatures. CO2 is still going up, it hasn't paused.

Its because we are talking about different time scales.
In general a climate measurement is taken over a 30 year period as it that is long enough to filter out any interannual variation or anomalies, but also short enough to be able to show longer climatic trends.

The "slowdown" really only lasted 15 years so that is short enough to be considered natural variation. The warming trend however has lasted 100 years which is too long to be natural variability.

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The_Barnacle

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Re: New UK Met 5 year forecats
Reply #20 - Feb 11^th, 2016 at 9:41pm

lee wrote on Feb 3^rd, 2016 at 3:11pm:

Natural Variability?

Lee, I am curious.
One minute you are claiming that any warming is due to natural variation the next you reverse your position and claim that scientists are fudging figures to create warming that isnt there.

So what is your position?
- do you believe that the Earth is warming but it is due to natural variation? or
- do you believe that the Earth isn't warming and the scientists are merely fudging the figures?

You can't have it both ways

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lee

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Re: New UK Met 5 year forecats
Reply #21 - Feb 11^th, 2016 at 9:42pm

The_Barnacle wrote on Feb 11^th, 2016 at 9:29pm:

The "slowdown" really only lasted 15 years so that is short enough to be considered natural variation. The warming trend however has lasted 100 years which is too long to be natural variability.

Yet the IPCC says that rhe AGW is only measureable in the 2hd half of the 20th century, so you can't claim the early 20th century warming.

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BatteriesNotIncluded

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Re: New UK Met 5 year forecats
Reply #22 - Feb 11^th, 2016 at 9:44pm

lee wrote on Feb 11^th, 2016 at 9:42pm:

The_Barnacle wrote on Feb 11^th, 2016 at 9:29pm:

The "slowdown" really only lasted 15 years so that is short enough to be considered natural variation. The warming trend however has lasted 100 years which is too long to be natural variability.

Yet the IPCC says that rhe AGW is only measureable in the 2hd half of the 20th century, so you can't claim the early 20th century warming.

^{go logic: yay vote for copper internet today- we sell lifestyles and stuff}

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BatteriesNotIncluded

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Re: New UK Met 5 year forecats
Reply #23 - Feb 11^th, 2016 at 9:46pm

The_Barnacle wrote on Feb 11^th, 2016 at 9:41pm:

lee wrote on Feb 3^rd, 2016 at 3:11pm:

Natural Variability?

Lee, I am curious.
One minute you are claiming that any warming is due to natural variation the next you reverse your position and claim that scientists are fudging figures to create warming that isnt there.

So what is your position?
- do you believe that the Earth is warming but it is due to natural variation? or
- do you believe that the Earth isn't warming and the scientists are merely fudging the figures?

You can't have it both ways

...if daddy is willing crack smokers can win Cheesy

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*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is. It wouldn't be there without the tax payer. Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know.... (swaggy) *

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lee

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Re: New UK Met 5 year forecats
Reply #24 - Feb 11^th, 2016 at 9:50pm

The_Barnacle wrote on Feb 11^th, 2016 at 9:41pm:

Lee, I am curious.
One minute you are claiming that any warming is due to natural variation the next you reverse your position and claim that scientists are fudging figures to create warming that isnt there.

So what is your position?
- do you believe that the Earth is warming but it is due to natural variation? or
- do you believe that the Earth isn't warming and the scientists are merely fudging the figures?

I am not claiming anything. The records show we have been warming since the last ice age. CO2, all other things being equal, will tend to increase the temperature. The problem is by how much. The IPCC says approximately half the warming in the 2nd half of the 20th century is due to CO2.

However, the models are showing too much warming. That means the models are wrong. That means the parametrisations are wrong.

And it is a fact that NASA/GISS/NOAA have adjusted the temperatures.

It is also a fact that BoM have adjusted temperatures.

That means it can be both natural and scientists fudging the figures. They are not mutually exclusive.

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BatteriesNotIncluded

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Re: New UK Met 5 year forecats
Reply #25 - Feb 11^th, 2016 at 9:55pm

The_Barnacle wrote on Feb 11^th, 2016 at 9:29pm:

lee wrote on Feb 7^th, 2016 at 3:05pm:

The_Barnacle wrote on Feb 7^th, 2016 at 11:15am:

Surely you weren't expecting a geometrically perfect increase in temperature each year? There are lots of other climatic variables such as el nino.
The TREND however will be continued warming.

But the father of global warming, James Hansen, said natural variability couldn't explain the temperature increase in his address to Congress in 1988.

Now apparently, natural variability can explain the slowdown, or 'hiatus' per IPCC.

You want it both ways. It can't address rapidly increasing temperatures, but it can address a slowdown in rapidly increasing temperatures. CO2 is still going up, it hasn't paused.

Its because we are talking about different time scales.
In general a climate measurement is taken over a 30 year period as it that is long enough to filter out any interannual variation or anomalies, but also short enough to be able to show longer climatic trends.

The "slowdown" really only lasted 15 years so that is short enough to be considered natural variation. The warming trend however has lasted 100 years which is too long to be natural variability.

The "slowdown" melted ice: Cheesy

Complex systems can't be measured by one indicator Grin

Put it this way: if the indicator measuring global sea ice stops getting rythmically sinusoidal we're all buggerred but that won't happen as the revolution won't be broadcast... anarchy will happen! There will be no more graphs to peruse... 7 billion people will change on their own indicators making everyone react to different indicators Huh

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*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is. It wouldn't be there without the tax payer. Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know.... (swaggy) *

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BatteriesNotIncluded

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Re: New UK Met 5 year forecats
Reply #26 - Feb 11^th, 2016 at 10:00pm

lee wrote on Feb 11^th, 2016 at 9:50pm:

The_Barnacle wrote on Feb 11^th, 2016 at 9:41pm:

Lee, I am curious.
One minute you are claiming that any warming is due to natural variation the next you reverse your position and claim that scientists are fudging figures to create warming that isnt there.

So what is your position?
- do you believe that the Earth is warming but it is due to natural variation? or
- do you believe that the Earth isn't warming and the scientists are merely fudging the figures?

I am not claiming anything. The records show we have been warming since the last ice age. CO2, all other things being equal, will tend to increase the temperature. The problem is by how much. The IPCC says approximately half the warming in the 2nd half of the 20th century is due to CO2.

However, the models are showing too much warming. That means the models are wrong. That means the parametrisations are wrong.

And it is a fact that NASA/GISS/NOAA have adjusted the temperatures.

It is also a fact that BoM have adjusted temperatures.

That means it can be both natural and scientists fudging the figures. They are not mutually exclusive.

No error values makes your logic purposely deceiptful.

It is the very reason scientific method is always associated with error value

IT'S KNOWN AS UNQUANTIFIED ARGUMENT AND IS USED BY FLIM FLAM MEN

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*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is. It wouldn't be there without the tax payer. Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know.... (swaggy) *

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Chimp_Logic Gold Member Offline πολιτικός Posts: 4826 Mawson Base Gender:	Re: New UK Met 5 year forecats Reply #27 - Feb 11^th, 2016 at 10:11pm lee should apologise to malcolm no doubt about it. exposed again running away again
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Chimp_Logic

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Re: New UK Met 5 year forecats
Reply #28 - Feb 11^th, 2016 at 10:19pm

lee wrote on Feb 7^th, 2016 at 3:10pm:

BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Feb 7^th, 2016 at 2:22pm:

lee wrote on Feb 5^th, 2016 at 5:21pm:

Chimp_Logic wrote on Feb 5^th, 2016 at 5:00pm:

f course we all know that even the fossil fuel industry accepts the science that underpins AGW.

Yes, they just don't accept that it is measurable, the extent to which CO2 may modify climate.

BACK TO THE UNCERTAINTY PRINCIPLE FOR ANOTHER 50 BILLION PAGES: I LOVE CIRCLE WORK YUMMY YUMMY IN MY ****** Grin

__> CUM GET MY SUM SUM <_____

Please show where the fossil fuel industry predicts a rate of change in potential climate increase.

Do some research on the matter.

It has been over a decade that the large fossil fuel and mining corporations of the world made a joint statement to the effect "....the planet has been warming due to human activities, and urgent action is needed to mitigate the effects on the climate and other systems" (paraphrasing here, but you get the drift lee, dont you - or are scurrying away to consult with Dr Sircus?)

you must apologise

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Mini Ice Age (2014-2029)
Dr Sircus cures cancer with Baking Soda and Magnesium - Jethro the MENTAL GIANT & his flute madness

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lee

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Re: New UK Met 5 year forecats
Reply #29 - Feb 11^th, 2016 at 10:28pm

Chimp_Logic wrote on Feb 11^th, 2016 at 10:19pm:

It has been over a decade that the large fossil fuel and mining corporations of the world made a joint statement to the effect "....the planet has been warming due to human activities, and urgent action is needed to mitigate the effects on the climate and other systems" (paraphrasing here,

Yes definitely paraphrasing. Grin

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