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Whither Dendrochronology, Jones et al and NOAA (Read 2847 times)
John_Taverner
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Re: Whither Dendrochronology, Jones et al and NOAA
Reply #15 - Jan 31st, 2016 at 6:26pm
 
er no. Try again.
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John_Taverner
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Re: Whither Dendrochronology, Jones et al and NOAA
Reply #16 - Jan 31st, 2016 at 6:31pm
 
lee wrote on Jan 31st, 2016 at 6:16pm:
John_Taverner wrote on Jan 31st, 2016 at 6:06pm:
Another paper that you're citing without bothering to read, Lee?



'The full Common Era data comprise ring-width measurements collected from 587 trees.  The mean segment length is 189 years, with a maximum of 609 years.  Combining all cores together gives a continuous record from 38 B.C. to 1995. As described in the manuscript, we analyze a subset of the full data comprising of k= 247 series with at least 20 measurements after the year 1496, leading to a 500 year series.  The raw data for 9 of the trees is in Figure 1.  The mean number of measurements per tree is 179 years, with a maximum of 485 years (Figure2).

http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/suppl/10.1080/01621459.2015.1110524/suppl_file/ua...

Didn't read the supplemental again?


It's called an abstract. On the same abstract:

using an example case of Scots pine from Torneträsk, Sweden


It's very relevant if you are a Moose or an interesting  furry animal from Sweden.
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lee
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Re: Whither Dendrochronology, Jones et al and NOAA
Reply #17 - Jan 31st, 2016 at 6:32pm
 
John_Taverner wrote on Jan 31st, 2016 at 6:26pm:
er no. Try again.



'The global average temperature of 62.45 degrees Fahrenheit for 1997 was the warmest year on record, surpassing the previous record set in 1995 by 0.15 degrees Fahrenheit.'

'Please note: the estimate for the baseline global temperature used in this study differed, and was warmer than, the baseline estimate (Jones et al., 1999) used currently.'

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/199713
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lee
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Re: Whither Dendrochronology, Jones et al and NOAA
Reply #18 - Jan 31st, 2016 at 6:36pm
 
Hm, how good is the Yamal data, if you are going for how limited scope the new paper is.
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John_Taverner
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Re: Whither Dendrochronology, Jones et al and NOAA
Reply #19 - Jan 31st, 2016 at 6:41pm
 
You think that dendroclimatology proxies were used for recent data that had perfectly good instrumental data?

Do you honestly think that, or are you just quoting that retarded (sorry, I mean retired) radio presenter?

You're further gone than I thought. You take my breath away.
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mariacostel
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Re: Whither Dendrochronology, Jones et al and NOAA
Reply #20 - Jan 31st, 2016 at 7:16pm
 
John_Taverner wrote on Jan 31st, 2016 at 6:41pm:
You think that dendroclimatology proxies were used for recent data that had perfectly good instrumental data?

Do you honestly think that, or are you just quoting that retarded (sorry, I mean retired) radio presenter?

You're further gone than I thought. You take my breath away.


We have perfectly good instrumental data. That's why the liks of NOAA and our own BoM have decided on 'homogenisation' so as to eliminate the inconvenient truths of this 'perfectly good instrumental data'. The argo Buoys recorded sea temperature for many may years, but NOAA rejected that data and instead used (no joke), temperatures from buckets taken by passing ships.

So why do all these things? TO GET THE ANSWER YOU WANT, not the actual answers.
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lee
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Re: Whither Dendrochronology, Jones et al and NOAA
Reply #21 - Jan 31st, 2016 at 7:51pm
 
mariacostel wrote on Jan 31st, 2016 at 7:16pm:
temperatures from buckets taken by passing ships.



Not so much bucket temperatures but water intake temperatures on steel hulls. The water intakes vary in height below waterline, depending on whether the ship is laden or not. It is perfectly fine for water temperatures for the engines, but absolutely useless for SST.

Then of course there are problems with the siting of the intakes, The further aft the water is more disturbed, and the warmer it is due to friction.
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lee
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Re: Whither Dendrochronology, Jones et al and NOAA
Reply #22 - Jan 31st, 2016 at 8:05pm
 
John_Taverner wrote on Jan 31st, 2016 at 6:41pm:
You think that dendroclimatology proxies were used for recent data that had perfectly good instrumental data?

Do you honestly think that, or are you just quoting that retarded (sorry, I mean retired) radio presenter?

You're further gone than I thought. You take my breath away.



Dear Breathless, How about Marcott?

'One author, Jeremy Shakun (currently at Harvard) weighed in via Skype for Dot Earth. When more questions came in, the group of authors wrote that they would respond more completely to questions about the work and now they have done so, on the RealClimate blog. Here’s a short excerpt and link to the rest:

    Q.

    What do paleotemperature reconstructions show about the temperature of the last 100 years?
    A.

    Our global paleotemperature reconstruction includes a so-called “uptick” in temperatures during the 20th-century. However, in the paper we make the point that this particular feature is of shorter duration than the inherent smoothing in our statistical averaging procedure, and that it is based on only a few available paleo-reconstructions of the type we used. Thus, the 20th century portion of our paleotemperature stack is not statistically robust, cannot be considered representative of global temperature changes, and therefore is not the basis of any of our conclusions. Our primary conclusions are based on a comparison of the longer term paleotemperature changes from our reconstruction with the well-documented temperature changes that have occurred over the last century, as documented by the instrumental record. Although not part of our study, high-resolution paleoclimate data from the past ~130 years have been compiled from various geological archives, and confirm the general features of warming trend over this time interval.'

http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/03/31/fresh-thoughts-from-authors-of-a-pa...

And of course Mann did precisely that, marrying Dendro to "perfectly good instrumental data" to show it was only 20th century warming.
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John_Taverner
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Re: Whither Dendrochronology, Jones et al and NOAA
Reply #23 - Feb 1st, 2016 at 9:16am
 
mariacostel wrote on Jan 31st, 2016 at 7:16pm:
John_Taverner wrote on Jan 31st, 2016 at 6:41pm:
You think that dendroclimatology proxies were used for recent data that had perfectly good instrumental data?

Do you honestly think that, or are you just quoting that retarded (sorry, I mean retired) radio presenter?

You're further gone than I thought. You take my breath away.


We have perfectly good instrumental data. That's why the liks of NOAA and our own BoM have decided on 'homogenisation' so as to eliminate the inconvenient truths of this 'perfectly good instrumental data'. The argo Buoys recorded sea temperature for many may years, but NOAA rejected that data and instead used (no joke), temperatures from buckets taken by passing ships.

So why do all these things? TO GET THE ANSWER YOU WANT, not the actual answers.


You don't have it quite correct. They did not suddenly start using buckets.  Homogenising the results in this case means compensation for the systematic error between two methodologies. I remember reading this paper some time ago. I'll see if I can dig it up. 

Don't believe all you read on blogs.
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John_Taverner
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Re: Whither Dendrochronology, Jones et al and NOAA
Reply #24 - Feb 1st, 2016 at 9:27am
 
lee wrote on Jan 31st, 2016 at 8:05pm:
Q. What do paleotemperature reconstructions show about the temperature of the last 100 years?
A.   [highlight] Our global paleotemperature reconstruction includes a so-called “uptick” in temperatures during the 20th-century.


I'll ask again. Do you think that  paleoclimate reconstructions have any bearing on instrumental datasets ?

Are they used in NASA GISTEMP?
Are they  used in NOAA MLOST?
Are they  used in Hadley Hadcrut datasets?

Quote:
And of course Mann did precisely that, marrying Dendro to "perfectly good instrumental data" to show it was only 20th century warming.


I think you are confused by reading too many blogs. Answer my first question.
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lee
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Re: Whither Dendrochronology, Jones et al and NOAA
Reply #25 - Feb 1st, 2016 at 10:26am
 
Now about the Briffa paper; you do concede that Jones et al uses Briffa extensively in their paper? The one NOAA uses for temperature reconstructions?

lee wrote on Jan 31st, 2016 at 3:42pm:
Authors - Matthew R. Schofield, Richard J. Barkerb Andrew Gelman, Edward R. Cook &
Keith R. Briffa


Do you see now any problem?
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John_Taverner
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Re: Whither Dendrochronology, Jones et al and NOAA
Reply #26 - Feb 1st, 2016 at 11:05am
 
lee wrote on Feb 1st, 2016 at 10:26am:
Now about the Briffa paper; you do concede that Jones et al uses Briffa extensively in their paper? The one NOAA uses for temperature reconstructions?

lee wrote on Jan 31st, 2016 at 3:42pm:
Authors - Matthew R. Schofield, Richard J. Barkerb Andrew Gelman, Edward R. Cook &
Keith R. Briffa


Do you see now any problem?


I asked first. For some reason you are avoiding the question.
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lee
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Re: Whither Dendrochronology, Jones et al and NOAA
Reply #27 - Feb 1st, 2016 at 3:16pm
 
John_Taverner wrote on Feb 1st, 2016 at 9:27am:
I'll ask again. Do you think that  paleoclimate reconstructions have any bearing on instrumental datasets ?



Where the adjustments to the instrumental dataset are based on Jones et al 1999, then yes.
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mariacostel
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Re: Whither Dendrochronology, Jones et al and NOAA
Reply #28 - Feb 1st, 2016 at 3:21pm
 
lee wrote on Feb 1st, 2016 at 3:16pm:
John_Taverner wrote on Feb 1st, 2016 at 9:27am:
I'll ask again. Do you think that  paleoclimate reconstructions have any bearing on instrumental datasets ?



Where the adjustments to the instrumental dataset are based on Jones et al 1999, then yes.


I find it incomprehensible that anyone with any intellectual honesty would adjust accurate temperature readings in line with the least accurate measuring tool available - tree rings.
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lee
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Re: Whither Dendrochronology, Jones et al and NOAA
Reply #29 - Feb 1st, 2016 at 3:27pm
 
mariacostel wrote on Feb 1st, 2016 at 3:21pm:
I find it incomprehensible that anyone with any intellectual honesty would adjust accurate temperature readings in line with the least accurate measuring tool available - tree rings.



I would still opt for the ships' engine intakes.
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