I hope we find out that there will be some other climate affect from the Indian Ocean.

Mostly some summer rain for the south west of WA

Marla wrote on Jan 7^th, 2016 at 7:39am:



Who is gunna light'em?

From the BOM


The Indian Ocean Dipole has little influence on Australian climate between December and April. However, Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures remain very much warmer than average across the majority of the basin. This basin-wide warmth may provide extra moisture for rain systems across Australia.

BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Jan 7^th, 2016 at 11:49am:



In what sense unpredictable? Periodicity or effects?

I follow weather closely, and I understand the principles. I am not impressed with long range forecasts.

The absence of the El "Neenyo" does not represent a so-called El Neenya. I don't know of any female savior born around Christmastime.

issuevoter wrote on Jan 7^th, 2016 at 6:55pm:


individual weather events are effectively independent of the climate in a region.

lee wrote on Jan 6^th, 2016 at 3:45pm:


No you are making the common error of confusing local weather events with long term climate events. You also don't seem to understand that the BoM are talking about probabilities.

The data conclusively shows that on average eastern Australia will be dryer during an el nino event. There will however be individual weather events  that may briefly appear to contradict the el nino. But that's just the difference between weather and climate.

The_Barnacle wrote on Jan 7^th, 2016 at 9:35pm:



Nice graphic of Winter/ Spring.

The Summer looks much different

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/rainfall/patterns/images/12elnino.2015.decfeb...
'The composite picture for summer (December to February) is shown in the adjacent map, with the average Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) values across the three month period for each of these El Niño years shown in the table. For each of the twelve years, the rainfall percentiles for the summer period were calculated against all years between 1900 and 2014.'

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/ninocomp.shtml

Now how does that compare to the summer average?

The rainfall for NSW seems abnormally high. Queensland and NT seem normal.

Prime Minister for Canyons wrote on Jan 7^th, 2016 at 10:11pm:



Why, is abnormally high rainfall going to morph into El Nino (abnormally) low rainfall?

Looking through the El Nino records, only the weak El Nino's seem to provide sometimes more summer rain, on the east coast.

But this one was labelled Godzilla by Bill Patzert of NASA.

Prime Minister for Canyons wrote on Jan 7^th, 2016 at 10:38pm:


If areas of the country are flooded, that means abnormal rainfall. Even if you average out that rainfall over 3 months, it is extremely unlikely to become abnormal below average rainfall.

John_Taverner wrote on Jan 7^th, 2016 at 5:21pm:



The philosophy of NOAA and weather forecasting.

John_Taverner wrote on Jan 8^th, 2016 at 6:54am:



I agree. However you were commenting on a reply to DRAH.  I was asking what he meant.

lee wrote on Jan 7^th, 2016 at 10:49pm:

Read advance australia fair much?

BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Jan 8^th, 2016 at 5:15pm:



I thought that was what you did.

Quote:


So periodicity and effects are both unpredictable, good.

The_Barnacle wrote on Jan 9^th, 2016 at 10:49am:



Only insofar as any weather event impacts climate. It, of itself, is not climate, but climate related; like drought, floods etc.

lee wrote on Jan 9^th, 2016 at 12:29pm:

i wanna play video games and have a massive w************************************** : go away mum 

Dad told me i don't have to work in this life-time etc blah blah yadda yadda yadda 

<SPECIAL HOP!!> LET'S ALL VOTE FOR COPPER INTERNET AND STUFF

bugger********** australia and the people who died for it: we want copper internet to make the stockmarket tick better or something like strange daddy said   

Malcolm, you seriously need to get help.

BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Jan 28^th, 2016 at 10:56am:



Got a climate scientist who claims El Nino is not weather?

lee wrote on Jan 28^th, 2016 at 11:03am:


...Is a bushfire is a weather event?

lee wrote on Jan 8^th, 2016 at 4:14pm:


You see this illustrates your lack of understanding of basic principles quite well. First you choose weather data for Sydney - a single point. You'd get a better picture by taking the figures for the Eastern seaboard, or at least more than just a single location. There can be a great deal of variation between locations, and some almost point sources like Sydney may very well buck the trend. Just because Sydney has more population doesn't make it more representative 

Secondly you fail to understand the statistical nature of the SOI effects. An El Niño event may be associated with a drier than average period, but not necessarily. It's a statistical relationship. Google how the SOI is calculated. I'm not going to explain it to you.

It's similar to saying that your grandfather smoked 3 packets of smokes a day but died at 93 from natural causes. Statistics will be able to predict how many cases like your hypothetical grandfather should exist.

You still don't get it. The second point.

Over much of Australia, but particularly eastern Australia, El Niño events are associated with an increased probability of drier conditions.

You are oversimplifying. Look, maybe you would understand better if I show you an excerpt from a Monthly Climate Statement:


Quote:


Here is a link that shows how rainfall probability may be inferred from SOI phase:
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/rainfallprobability/in...

Maps for the all five SOI phases:

    Consistently negative (phase 1)
    Consistently positive (phase 2)
    Rapidly falling (phase 3)
    Rapidly rising (phase 4)
    Consistently near zero (phase 5)

Read it and be better informed.

lee wrote on Jan 31^st, 2016 at 6:06pm:


Let's say you have a coin that was loaded. It has a 35% chance of throwing tails and a 65% chance of throwing heads.

On your first toss, it comes up tails.  Would you say in the same way that it was an anomalous toss, or are you just an anomalous tosser?

lee wrote on Jan 31^st, 2016 at 6:29pm:



Ok, now reply to the corrected post

In this case a 65% chance.

If you throw tails on the first throw, it's not anomalous.

In the same way, you have a 65% chance of drier than median rainfall.

So if it happens to be wetter than normal, is that anomalous?

Now if it was wetter than normal for 5 years in a row, that would almost certainly be anomalous. Most define anomalous in terms of the 95% confidence limits. If it is outside the 95% confidence limits, it's anomalous. It  may not be. It might just mean that the rules are slowly changing.

A single year that was wetter than average - not anomalous

A single year that's not even finished yet that was wetter than average - definitely not anomalous.

So you produce a smokescreen by saying that El Nino is not very predictable? Er yes. That's exactly the point I was making before.

Non predictable? yes.

Anomalous infers that it deviates from the norm. So now you say that we don't have a good handle on the norm.

If we don't have a good handle on what is the norm ("who's to say") then how can we determine that a specific set of circumstances is anomalous. What is it supposed to be anomalous with respect to?  Anomalous with respect to "who's to say" ?

It doesn't detract from the point that you have no idea what you are talking about.

lee wrote on Jan 30^th, 2016 at 3:54pm:

Lol, the onus of responsibility