Australian Politics Forum - El Nino and Australian Weather

lee

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El Nino and Australian Weather
Jan 6^th, 2016 at 3:45pm

'Potential effects of El Niño on Australia include:

Reduced rainfall
Warmer temperatures
Shift in temperature extremes
Increased frost risk
Reduced tropical cyclone numbers
Later monsoon onset
Increased fire danger in southeast Australia
Decreased alpine snow depths'

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/updates/articles/a008-el-nino-and-australia.shtml

Of course NSW seems to be defying that. I guess because we don't have a long enough history of El Nino's, because of their periodicity, to actually make projections.

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miketrees Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 6492 Gender:	Re: El Nino and Australian Weather Reply #1 - Jan 7^th, 2016 at 7:04am I hope we find out that there will be some other climate affect from the Indian Ocean. Mostly some summer rain for the south west of WA
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Marla

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Re: El Nino and Australian Weather
Reply #2 - Jan 7^th, 2016 at 7:39am

California has been getting slammed with rain and snow (at least the Cascades are benefiting somewhat) although it will leave no significant impact on the ongoing drought. Here the snowpack is way, way above "normal" which is great when you're stoned and skiing (in my case, snowboarding) but the winter itself has been usually cold due to the El Nino tracking further south allowing for cold Canadian/arctic air to seep down long enough to piss me off.

In summer, a strong El Nino means a hotter summer with severe drought so once the snowpack melts 'dem forests are gunna burn!

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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21590 Gender:	Re: El Nino and Australian Weather Reply #3 - Jan 7^th, 2016 at 10:18am Marla wrote on Jan 7^th, 2016 at 7:39am: so once the snowpack melts 'dem forests are gunna burn! Who is gunna light'em?
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Marla Gold Member Offline A joint a day keeps the MAGA away Posts: 15062 Colorado Gender:	Re: El Nino and Australian Weather Reply #4 - Jan 7^th, 2016 at 10:42am Tourist Texuuuns.
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Prime Minister for Canyons Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 26906 Canberra Gender:	Re: El Nino and Australian Weather Reply #5 - Jan 7^th, 2016 at 10:45am From the BOM The Indian Ocean Dipole has little influence on Australian climate between December and April. However, Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures remain very much warmer than average across the majority of the basin. This basin-wide warmth may provide extra moisture for rain systems across Australia.
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BatteriesNotIncluded

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Re: El Nino and Australian Weather
Reply #6 - Jan 7^th, 2016 at 11:49am

lee wrote on Jan 6^th, 2016 at 3:45pm:

'Potential effects of El Niño on Australia include:

Reduced rainfall
Warmer temperatures
Shift in temperature extremes
Increased frost risk
Reduced tropical cyclone numbers
Later monsoon onset
Increased fire danger in southeast Australia
Decreased alpine snow depths'

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/updates/articles/a008-el-nino-and-australia.shtml

Of course NSW seems to be defying that. I guess because we don't have a long enough history of El Nino's, because of their periodicity, to actually make projections.

considering el ninos are basically unpredictable i wouldn't get too upset!!

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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21590 Gender:	Re: El Nino and Australian Weather Reply #7 - Jan 7^th, 2016 at 12:07pm BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Jan 7^th, 2016 at 11:49am: considering el ninos are basically unpredictable i wouldn't get too upset!! In what sense unpredictable? Periodicity or effects?
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John_Taverner

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Re: El Nino and Australian Weather
Reply #8 - Jan 7^th, 2016 at 5:21pm

lee wrote on Jan 7^th, 2016 at 12:07pm:

BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Jan 7^th, 2016 at 11:49am:

considering el ninos are basically unpredictable i wouldn't get too upset!!

In what sense unpredictable? Periodicity or effects?

Have a read and educate yourself. They can be predicted to a limited extent based on a particular month's data, but that's about it. You can just about predict what the following three monthly period will do, but even then it's not very reliable.

http://news.sciencemag.org/earth/2013/01/el-ni%C3%B1os-are-highly-unpredictable

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issuevoter Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 9200 The Great State of Mind Gender:	Re: El Nino and Australian Weather Reply #9 - Jan 7^th, 2016 at 6:55pm I follow weather closely, and I understand the principles. I am not impressed with long range forecasts. The absence of the El "Neenyo" does not represent a so-called El Neenya. I don't know of any female savior born around Christmastime.
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lee

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Re: El Nino and Australian Weather
Reply #10 - Jan 7^th, 2016 at 8:24pm

John_Taverner wrote on Jan 7^th, 2016 at 5:21pm:

Have a read and educate yourself. They can be predicted to a limited extent based on a particular month's data, but that's about it. You can just about predict what the following three monthly period will do, but even then it's not very reliable.

http://news.sciencemag.org/earth/2013/01/el-ni%C3%B1os-are-highly-unpredictable

You have trouble with me asking what he was asking? If you think about it the statement "considering el ninos are basically unpredictable i wouldn't get too upset!! " isn't exactly clear on what he meant.

The El Nino occurs sporadically. Generally but not always between 5 and 7 years.

The statement from BoM also isn't clear about the effects of El Nino. Are they consistent?

BoM talks of "Potential Effects". If El Nino is not consistent' does that then mean more flooding, cooler temps etc.

So were you referring to periodicity, effects or both?

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Chimp_Logic

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Re: El Nino and Australian Weather
Reply #11 - Jan 7^th, 2016 at 8:25pm

issuevoter wrote on Jan 7^th, 2016 at 6:55pm:

I follow weather closely, and I understand the principles. I am not impressed with long range forecasts.

The absence of the El "Neenyo" does not represent a so-called El Neenya. I don't know of any female savior born around Christmastime.

individual weather events are effectively independent of the climate in a region.

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Prime Minister for Canyons Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 26906 Canberra Gender:	Re: El Nino and Australian Weather Reply #12 - Jan 7^th, 2016 at 9:07pm issuevoter wrote on Jan 7^th, 2016 at 6:55pm: I follow weather closely, and I understand the principles. I am not impressed with long range forecasts. The absence of the El "Neenyo" does not represent a so-called El Neenya. I don't know of any female savior born around Christmastime. You mean a La Nina.
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The_Barnacle

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Re: El Nino and Australian Weather
Reply #13 - Jan 7^th, 2016 at 9:35pm

lee wrote on Jan 6^th, 2016 at 3:45pm:

'Potential effects of El Niño on Australia include:

Reduced rainfall
Warmer temperatures
Shift in temperature extremes
Increased frost risk
Reduced tropical cyclone numbers
Later monsoon onset
Increased fire danger in southeast Australia
Decreased alpine snow depths'

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/updates/articles/a008-el-nino-and-australia.shtml

Of course NSW seems to be defying that. I guess because we don't have a long enough history of El Nino's, because of their periodicity, to actually make projections.

No you are making the common error of confusing local weather events with long term climate events. You also don't seem to understand that the BoM are talking about probabilities.

The data conclusively shows that on average eastern Australia will be dryer during an el nino event. There will however be individual weather events that may briefly appear to contradict the el nino. But that's just the difference between weather and climate.

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lee

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Re: El Nino and Australian Weather
Reply #14 - Jan 7^th, 2016 at 9:57pm

The_Barnacle wrote on Jan 7^th, 2016 at 9:35pm:

No you are making the common error of confusing local weather events with long term climate events. You also don't seem to understand that the BoM are talking about probabilities.

Nope. El Nino is weather, NOTHING to do with climate.

The_Barnacle wrote on Jan 7^th, 2016 at 9:35pm:

The data conclusively shows that on average eastern Australia will be dryer during an el nino event.

Yeah, except when it doesn't. So as i said on another site - Is it an anomalous El Nino?

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