Australian Politics Forum - El Nino and Australian Weather

John_Taverner

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Re: El Nino and Australian Weather
Reply #45 - Jan 31^st, 2016 at 5:56pm

You are oversimplifying. Look, maybe you would understand better if I show you an excerpt from a Monthly Climate Statement:

Quote:

Seasonal rainfall outlook (Dec-Feb 2015/16)

Based on previous years when the SOI has been in a ‘Rapidly Rising’ phase at the end of November, the probability of rainfall being above median for the next three-month period (December to February) is less than 50 per cent for most northern and eastern parts of Queensland. For many western and some southern parts of the state the probability of above median December to February rainfall is higher (50 to 70 per cent).

Here is a link that shows how rainfall probability may be inferred from SOI phase:
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/rainfallprobability/in...

Maps for the all five SOI phases:

Consistently negative (phase 1)
Consistently positive (phase 2)
Rapidly falling (phase 3)
Rapidly rising (phase 4)
Consistently near zero (phase 5)

Read it and be better informed.

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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21590 Gender:	Re: El Nino and Australian Weather Reply #46 - Jan 31^st, 2016 at 6:06pm John_Taverner wrote on Jan 31^st, 2016 at 5:56pm: Read it and be better informed. Yep. Links to an interesting graphic where the majority of the east coast has only a 30-40% chance of exceeding the median. I guess it is an anomalous year.
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John_Taverner

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Re: El Nino and Australian Weather
Reply #47 - Jan 31^st, 2016 at 6:20pm

lee wrote on Jan 31^st, 2016 at 6:06pm:

John_Taverner wrote on Jan 31^st, 2016 at 5:56pm:

Read it and be better informed.

Yep. Links to an interesting graphic where the majority of the east coast has only a 30-40% chance of exceeding the median.

I guess it is an anomalous year.

Let's say you have a coin that was loaded. It has a 35% chance of throwing tails and a 65% chance of throwing heads.

On your first toss, it comes up tails. Would you say in the same way that it was an anomalous toss, or are you just an anomalous tosser?

Roll Eyes

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« Last Edit: Jan 31^st, 2016 at 6:34pm by John_Taverner »

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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21590 Gender:	Re: El Nino and Australian Weather Reply #48 - Jan 31^st, 2016 at 6:29pm John_Taverner wrote on Jan 31^st, 2016 at 6:20pm: Let's say you have a coin that was loaded. It has a 35% chance of throwing tails and a 65% chance of throwing tails. A multi talented coin indeed.
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John_Taverner Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 2217 Gender:	Re: El Nino and Australian Weather Reply #49 - Jan 31^st, 2016 at 6:33pm lee wrote on Jan 31^st, 2016 at 6:29pm: John_Taverner wrote on Jan 31^st, 2016 at 6:20pm: Let's say you have a coin that was loaded. It has a 35% chance of throwing tails and a 65% chance of throwing tails. A multi talented coin indeed. Ok, now reply to the corrected post
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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21590 Gender:	Re: El Nino and Australian Weather Reply #50 - Jan 31^st, 2016 at 9:45pm John_Taverner wrote on Jan 31^st, 2016 at 6:20pm: Let's say you have a coin that was loaded. It has a 35% chance of throwing tails and a 65% chance of throwing heads. If I have a coin that is loaded, I remain certain there is a good chance of heads.
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John_Taverner

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Re: El Nino and Australian Weather
Reply #51 - Feb 1^st, 2016 at 9:07am

In this case a 65% chance.

If you throw tails on the first throw, it's not anomalous.

In the same way, you have a 65% chance of drier than median rainfall.

So if it happens to be wetter than normal, is that anomalous?

Now if it was wetter than normal for 5 years in a row, that would almost certainly be anomalous. Most define anomalous in terms of the 95% confidence limits. If it is outside the 95% confidence limits, it's anomalous. It may not be. It might just mean that the rules are slowly changing.

A single year that was wetter than average - not anomalous

A single year that's not even finished yet that was wetter than average - definitely not anomalous.

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lee

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Re: El Nino and Australian Weather
Reply #52 - Feb 1^st, 2016 at 10:17am

John_Taverner wrote on Feb 1^st, 2016 at 9:07am:

Now if it was wetter than normal for 5 years in a row, that would almost certainly be anomalous. Most define anomalous in terms of the 95% confidence limits. If it is outside the 95% confidence limits, it's anomalous. It may not be. It might just mean that the rules are slowly changing.

Very good, John.

Now throw in the vagaries of an El Nino, non-regular, limited history, although some may be inferred from weather patterns earlier in the century. Now who is to say what is anomalous or not?

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John_Taverner

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Re: El Nino and Australian Weather
Reply #53 - Feb 1^st, 2016 at 11:17am

So you produce a smokescreen by saying that El Nino is not very predictable? Er yes. That's exactly the point I was making before.

Non predictable? yes.

Anomalous infers that it deviates from the norm. So now you say that we don't have a good handle on the norm.

If we don't have a good handle on what is the norm ("who's to say") then how can we determine that a specific set of circumstances is anomalous. What is it supposed to be anomalous with respect to? Anomalous with respect to "who's to say" ?

It doesn't detract from the point that you have no idea what you are talking about.

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lee

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Re: El Nino and Australian Weather
Reply #54 - Feb 1^st, 2016 at 3:19pm

John_Taverner wrote on Feb 1^st, 2016 at 11:17am:

So you produce a smokescreen by saying that El Nino is not very predictable? Er yes. That's exactly the point I was making before.

Non predictable? yes.

lee wrote on Jan 7^th, 2016 at 12:07pm:

BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Jan 7^th, 2016 at 11:49am:

considering el ninos are basically unpredictable i wouldn't get too upset!!

In what sense unpredictable? Periodicity or effects?

So we agree; good.

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BatteriesNotIncluded Gold Member Offline MediocrityNET: because people died for this! Posts: 26966	Re: El Nino and Australian Weather Reply #55 - Feb 1^st, 2016 at 3:27pm lee wrote on Jan 30^th, 2016 at 3:54pm: I as merely illustrating a point. So you want me to include rainfall figures for the rest of NSW and Queensland? Why don't you do it to prove me wrong? Lol, the onus of responsibility _{** Lookout or lee will get the whip out}
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