Australian Politics Forum - El Nino and Australian Weather

lee

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Re: El Nino and Australian Weather
Reply #15 - Jan 7^th, 2016 at 10:09pm

The_Barnacle wrote on Jan 7^th, 2016 at 9:35pm:

The data conclusively shows that on average eastern Australia will be dryer during an el nino event.

Nice graphic of Winter/ Spring.

The Summer looks much different

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/rainfall/patterns/images/12elnino.2015.decfeb...
'The composite picture for summer (December to February) is shown in the adjacent map, with the average Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) values across the three month period for each of these El Niño years shown in the table. For each of the twelve years, the rainfall percentiles for the summer period were calculated against all years between 1900 and 2014.'

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/ninocomp.shtml

Now how does that compare to the summer average?

The rainfall for NSW seems abnormally high. Queensland and NT seem normal.

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Prime Minister for Canyons Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 26906 Canberra Gender:	Re: El Nino and Australian Weather Reply #16 - Jan 7^th, 2016 at 10:11pm Since we arennt at Feb shouldnt we hold off until then
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lee

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Re: El Nino and Australian Weather
Reply #17 - Jan 7^th, 2016 at 10:27pm

Prime Minister for Canyons wrote on Jan 7^th, 2016 at 10:11pm:

Since we arennt at Feb shouldnt we hold off until then

Why, is abnormally high rainfall going to morph into El Nino (abnormally) low rainfall?

Looking through the El Nino records, only the weak El Nino's seem to provide sometimes more summer rain, on the east coast.

But this one was labelled Godzilla by Bill Patzert of NASA.

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Prime Minister for Canyons Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 26906 Canberra Gender:	Re: El Nino and Australian Weather Reply #18 - Jan 7^th, 2016 at 10:38pm The last week has been abnormal, was it abnormal before that? If i go on Canberra trhere hasnt been much rain at all.
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lee

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Re: El Nino and Australian Weather
Reply #19 - Jan 7^th, 2016 at 10:49pm

Prime Minister for Canyons wrote on Jan 7^th, 2016 at 10:38pm:

The last week has been abnormal, was it abnormal before that? If i go on Canberra trhere hasnt been much rain at all.

If areas of the country are flooded, that means abnormal rainfall. Even if you average out that rainfall over 3 months, it is extremely unlikely to become abnormal below average rainfall.

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Prime Minister for Canyons Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 26906 Canberra Gender:	Re: El Nino and Australian Weather Reply #20 - Jan 7^th, 2016 at 11:11pm Depends. 100 mm in a day will cause flooding but over 3 months will be below average
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Marla Gold Member Offline A joint a day keeps the MAGA away Posts: 15062 Colorado Gender:	Re: El Nino and Australian Weather Reply #21 - Jan 8^th, 2016 at 4:14am John_Taverner wrote on Jan 7^th, 2016 at 5:21pm: You can just about predict what the following three monthly period will do, but even then it's not very reliable. The philosophy of NOAA and weather forecasting.
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John_Taverner

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Re: El Nino and Australian Weather
Reply #22 - Jan 8^th, 2016 at 6:54am

lee wrote on Jan 7^th, 2016 at 8:24pm:

John_Taverner wrote on Jan 7^th, 2016 at 5:21pm:

Have a read and educate yourself. They can be predicted to a limited extent based on a particular month's data, but that's about it. You can just about predict what the following three monthly period will do, but even then it's not very reliable.

http://news.sciencemag.org/earth/2013/01/el-ni%C3%B1os-are-highly-unpredictable

You have trouble with me asking what he was asking? If you think about it the statement "considering el ninos are basically unpredictable i wouldn't get too upset!! " isn't exactly clear on what he meant.

The El Nino occurs sporadically. Generally but not always between 5 and 7 years.

The statement from BoM also isn't clear about the effects of El Nino. Are they consistent?

BoM talks of "Potential Effects". If El Nino is not consistent' does that then mean more flooding, cooler temps etc.

So were you referring to periodicity, effects or both?

I was referring to the prediction of an El Nino occurring. That is the least predictable aspect. In terms of effect, it is a statistical. For any given set of circumstances, you can predict the most likely results for the season but it is not always correct.
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/index.html

The BoM will generally predict that the next season is likely to be an El Nino or a La Nina, but it is difficult to predict beyond that time scale.

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lee

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Re: El Nino and Australian Weather
Reply #23 - Jan 8^th, 2016 at 3:40pm

John_Taverner wrote on Jan 8^th, 2016 at 6:54am:

I was referring to the prediction of an El Nino occurring. That is the least predictable aspect. In terms of effect, it is a statistical. For any given set of circumstances, you can predict the most likely results for the season but it is not always correct.
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/index.html

The BoM will generally predict that the next season is likely to be an El Nino or a La Nina, but it is difficult to predict beyond that time scale.

I agree. However you were commenting on a reply to DRAH. I was asking what he meant.

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lee

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Re: El Nino and Australian Weather
Reply #24 - Jan 8^th, 2016 at 4:14pm

Prime Minister for Canyons wrote on Jan 7^th, 2016 at 11:11pm:

Depends. 100 mm in a day will cause flooding but over 3 months will be below average

Sydney weather

'January 2016 Total 142.0 4 day(s)'

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/station.jsp?lt=site&lc=66062&list=rb

'Rainfall was generally average to above average during December, with 96.6 mm recorded at Sydney Observatory Hill, 24% above the historical average.'

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/month/nsw/sydney.shtml

Mean Monthly Rainfall : Hours of Daily Sunshine : Days of Rainfall : Sydney
Monthly Rainfall
Monthly Rainfall

Summer

In mm In Inches Hours Per          Number of
                              Day Sunshine    Days Rain
Dec 78    3.1          7.6             11.5
Jan 103    4.1          7.2             12.1
Feb 117    4.6          6.7             12.3

http://www.sydney.com.au/weather.htm

So 238.6 mm up to the first week of January. Average for Dec-Feb 298mm. So a way to go before it hits average. I doubt that would qualify it as a below average summer, with 7 weeks to go.

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BatteriesNotIncluded

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Re: El Nino and Australian Weather
Reply #25 - Jan 8^th, 2016 at 5:09pm

lee wrote on Jan 7^th, 2016 at 10:49pm:

Prime Minister for Canyons wrote on Jan 7^th, 2016 at 10:38pm:

The last week has been abnormal, was it abnormal before that? If i go on Canberra trhere hasnt been much rain at all.

If areas of the country are flooded, that means abnormal rainfall. Even if you average out that rainfall over 3 months, it is extremely unlikely to become abnormal below average rainfall.

Read advance australia fair much?

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BatteriesNotIncluded

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Re: El Nino and Australian Weather
Reply #26 - Jan 8^th, 2016 at 5:15pm

lee wrote on Jan 7^th, 2016 at 10:27pm:

Prime Minister for Canyons wrote on Jan 7^th, 2016 at 10:11pm:

Since we arennt at Feb shouldnt we hold off until then

Why, is abnormally high rainfall going to morph into El Nino (abnormally) low rainfall?

Looking through the El Nino records, only the weak El Nino's seem to provide sometimes more summer rain, on the east coast.

But this one was labelled Godzilla by Bill Patzert of NASA.

el nino is only one system: it has it's own boundary and thus intereacts with other system boundaries in as yet not entirely known ways!

If it was all known we could all sleep in every day and tell the world to get bugger* but we can't, so we call it complicated and stuff comprende yet Shocked

?

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lee

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Re: El Nino and Australian Weather
Reply #27 - Jan 8^th, 2016 at 5:51pm

BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Jan 8^th, 2016 at 5:15pm:

If it was all known we could all sleep in every day and tell the world to get bugger*

I thought that was what you did.

Quote:

el nino is only one system: it has it's own boundary and thus intereacts with other system boundaries in as yet not entirely known ways!

So periodicity and effects are both unpredictable, good.

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The_Barnacle

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Re: El Nino and Australian Weather
Reply #28 - Jan 9^th, 2016 at 10:49am

lee wrote on Jan 7^th, 2016 at 9:57pm:

The_Barnacle wrote on Jan 7^th, 2016 at 9:35pm:

No you are making the common error of confusing local weather events with long term climate events. You also don't seem to understand that the BoM are talking about probabilities.

Nope. El Nino is weather, NOTHING to do with climate.

No Lee you are wrong. It has EVERYTHING to do with climate.

Quote:

EL NINO - A climatic event occurring every two to seven years, characterized by warming of surface waters and reduced upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich water off the western coast of South America, causing die-offs of plankton and fish and influencing jet stream winds, altering storm tracks and affecting the climate over much of the world.
http://www.yourdictionary.com/el-nino

El Nino, as a climate event, will only affect the probabilities of the weather a given location will receive. Given that an El Nino is a world wide climate event, the fact that some parts of NSW got a lot of rain is pretty insignificant. In fact, if it hadn't happened in such a populated area, we probably wouldn't have heard much about it.

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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21590 Gender:	Re: El Nino and Australian Weather Reply #29 - Jan 9^th, 2016 at 12:29pm The_Barnacle wrote on Jan 9^th, 2016 at 10:49am: No Lee you are wrong. It has EVERYTHING to do with climate. Quote: Only insofar as any weather event impacts climate. It, of itself, is not climate, but climate related; like drought, floods etc.
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