Australian Politics Forum - You have been lied to your entire life. AGW next

lee

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Re: You have been lied to your entire life. AGW next
Reply #60 - Dec 19^th, 2015 at 8:44pm

boxy wrote on Dec 19^th, 2015 at 8:32pm:

Ah, the ozone layer. Something that was acted upon, without huge dollars being invested in skepdicksism... and because action stopped it, it was all a lie? Ridiculous.

What the ozone layer that is still there. The ozone hole that was nearly repaired in May 2015, the ozone hole that was the fourth largest ever in October? That one?

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Jovial Monk

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Re: You have been lied to your entire life. AGW next
Reply #61 - Dec 19^th, 2015 at 9:04pm

boxy wrote on Dec 19^th, 2015 at 8:32pm:

Ah, the ozone layer. Something that was acted upon, without huge dollars being invested in skepdicksism... and because action stopped it, it was all a lie? Ridiculous.

Y2K too. Didn’t happen. Banks etc spent billions but discount that. Nuts need their conspiracies.

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OzPolitic needs a >real< Environment MRB now!
OzPolitic needs a >real< Food MRB now!
OzPolitic needs a >real< Health MRB now!
OzPolitic needs a >real< Economics MRB now!

Topics in the right MRB!

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John_Taverner

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Re: You have been lied to your entire life. AGW next
Reply #62 - Dec 19^th, 2015 at 9:04pm

lee wrote on Dec 19^th, 2015 at 8:44pm:

boxy wrote on Dec 19^th, 2015 at 8:32pm:

Ah, the ozone layer. Something that was acted upon, without huge dollars being invested in skepdicksism... and because action stopped it, it was all a lie? Ridiculous.

What the ozone layer that is still there. The ozone hole that was nearly repaired in May 2015, the ozone hole that was the fourth largest ever in October? That one?

50 years they reckon. About 2050 or so before levels can return to pre 1979 values. Actually the stratospheric Cl radical concentration is slowly coming down. Like anything else, there will be natural variation. In the case of this October, it was unusually cold weather conditions.

Next year, who knows? It's difficult to predict individual years, as opposed to underlying trends.

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boxy

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Re: You have been lied to your entire life. AGW next
Reply #63 - Dec 19^th, 2015 at 9:09pm

lee wrote on Dec 19^th, 2015 at 8:44pm:

boxy wrote on Dec 19^th, 2015 at 8:32pm:

Ah, the ozone layer. Something that was acted upon, without huge dollars being invested in skepdicksism... and because action stopped it, it was all a lie? Ridiculous.

What the ozone layer that is still there. The ozone hole that was nearly repaired in May 2015, the ozone hole that was the fourth largest ever in October? That one?

The problem is going to remain for at least a generation, but at least we've significantly reduced any added impact, and it will hopefully repair itself over the next century.

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boxy

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Re: You have been lied to your entire life. AGW next
Reply #64 - Dec 19^th, 2015 at 9:14pm

As to renewable energy, get used to it.

Sooner or later, we're going to need to transition to renewables. Time to stop freeloading on the 100's of millions of years worth of energy, stored in the bodies of dead (and long extinct) species. The more and longer we rely on the easy fix, the harder it's going to get to transition to something that is long term sustainable.

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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21590 Gender:	Re: You have been lied to your entire life. AGW next Reply #65 - Dec 19^th, 2015 at 9:23pm boxy wrote on Dec 19^th, 2015 at 9:14pm: The more and longer we rely on the easy fix, the harder it's going to get to transition to something that is long term sustainable. First off you have to get short term sustainable.
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lee

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Re: You have been lied to your entire life. AGW next
Reply #66 - Dec 19^th, 2015 at 9:28pm

John_Taverner wrote on Dec 19^th, 2015 at 9:04pm:

50 years they reckon. About 2050 or so before levels can return to pre 1979 values. Actually the stratospheric Cl radical concentration is slowly coming down. Like anything else, there will be natural variation. In the case of this October, it was unusually cold weather conditions.

Next year, who knows? It's difficult to predict individual years, as opposed to underlying trends.

That's the problem with only 60 odd years of data; we don't know if it is just natural variation.

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Emma Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 9853 OZ Gender:	Re: You have been lied to your entire life. AGW next Reply #67 - Dec 19^th, 2015 at 9:29pm you guys
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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21590 Gender:	Re: You have been lied to your entire life. AGW next Reply #68 - Dec 19^th, 2015 at 9:32pm Nuclear is long term sustainable.
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boxy

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Re: You have been lied to your entire life. AGW next
Reply #69 - Dec 19^th, 2015 at 9:42pm

lee wrote on Dec 19^th, 2015 at 9:23pm:

boxy wrote on Dec 19^th, 2015 at 9:14pm:

The more and longer we rely on the easy fix, the harder it's going to get to transition to something that is long term sustainable.

First off you have to get short term sustainable.

What does that even mean? Our current energy systems take huge inputs (millions of years worth) and burns them in days.

The point is, we need to focus and use this huge energy deficit, and work towards bootstrapping ourselves into a long term sustainable energy system, rather than frittering it all away on ipods and cheesburgers until we reach a point where we need to act, because it's all gone (or more accurately, too costly to extract any more).

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boxy Senior Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 400 Gender:	Re: You have been lied to your entire life. AGW next Reply #70 - Dec 19^th, 2015 at 9:43pm lee wrote on Dec 19^th, 2015 at 9:32pm: Nuclear is long term sustainable. Yes, it potentially is, as long as we can mitigate the downsides.
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lee

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Re: You have been lied to your entire life. AGW next
Reply #71 - Dec 19^th, 2015 at 9:48pm

boxy wrote on Dec 19^th, 2015 at 9:42pm:

rather than frittering it all away on ipods and cheesburgers

Neither are on my shopping list. But you didn't respond to nuclear. So where does that fit?

boxy wrote on Dec 19^th, 2015 at 9:42pm:

Our current energy systems take huge inputs (millions of years worth) and burns them in days.

Like Drax Powers station in the UK. Importing wood pellets to burn as fuel from the US. Wood pellets provide less energy than coal, so more wood pellets. The cost of transport, with its attendant emissions, also has to be added to the total cost of Drax.

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lee

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Re: You have been lied to your entire life. AGW next
Reply #72 - Dec 19^th, 2015 at 9:59pm

The ozone is interesting.

'Why Has an Ozone Hole Appeared over Antarctica When CFCs and Halons Are Released Mainly in the Northern Hemisphere?'

'The Earth's atmosphere is continuously stirred over the globe by winds. As a result, ozone-depleting gases get mixed throughout the atmosphere, including Antarctica, regardless of where they are emitted.'

http://www.unep.ch/ozone/faq-science.shtml#question6

Now this is the same line of reasoning used to describe CO2 as a well mixed gas. However, IBUKI and OCO2 satellites both show that CO2 is not well mixed.

Where does that leave the conclusion on CFC's?

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boxy

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Re: You have been lied to your entire life. AGW next
Reply #73 - Dec 19^th, 2015 at 10:13pm

lee wrote on Dec 19^th, 2015 at 9:48pm:

boxy wrote on Dec 19^th, 2015 at 9:42pm:

rather than frittering it all away on ipods and cheesburgers

Neither are on my shopping list. [s]But you didn't respond to nuclear. So where does that fit?[/s

Good for you. Insert your consumer product of choice, it wasn't meant to be an all inclusive list of wasteful excesses Roll Eyes

I'm hoping for a cold fusion miracle fix, myself, but we can't afford to place all our hopes in that one basket. Bring on the alternatives, and let the market sort them out, once a realistic price is put on the input costs of the fossil fuel freeloaders.

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John_Taverner

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Re: You have been lied to your entire life. AGW next
Reply #74 - Dec 20^th, 2015 at 6:43am

lee wrote on Dec 19^th, 2015 at 9:28pm:

John_Taverner wrote on Dec 19^th, 2015 at 9:04pm:

50 years they reckon. About 2050 or so before levels can return to pre 1979 values. Actually the stratospheric Cl radical concentration is slowly coming down. Like anything else, there will be natural variation. In the case of this October, it was unusually cold weather conditions.

Next year, who knows? It's difficult to predict individual years, as opposed to underlying trends.

That's the problem with only 60 odd years of data; we don't know if it is just natural variation.

The Ozone hole is definitely as a result of Chlorine radicals caused by the breakdown of CFCs. There probably won't be much of a trend until concentrations reduce further.

Thomas Midgley has a lot to answer for.

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