Australian Politics Forum - Is 2 Degrees Heating Acceptable?

lee

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Re: Is 2 Degrees Heating Acceptable?
Reply #90 - Dec 5^th, 2015 at 11:25am

' She and her colleagues collected data on recent precipitation and temperatures from the Pakistan Meteorological Department and other sources, including satellite data. They combined this information with climate models to track changes in three regions of the Himalayas between 1861 and 2100: the Karakoram; the central Himalayas; and the southeast Himalayas which included part of the Tibetan Plateau.

The researchers found that a new model that simulates climate down to an area of 965 square miles (2,500 square kilometers) was able to match the observed temperature and precipitation cycles seen in the Karakoram. A model used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to simulate what will happen if the world continues to emit greenhouse gases at current rates was unable to capture these seasonal cycles, Kapnick said.

The reason, she said, is that the IPCC and other climate models are lower-resolution, capturing climate change over areas no finer than about 17,027 square miles (44,100 square km). The coarser resolution "smoothes out" variations in elevation, which works fine for the central Himalayas and southeast Himalayas. However, the Karakoram region has more elevation variability than the other two regions. Ultimately, the result is that the IPCC and other models overestimate the amount of warmth in this region, Kapnick said.'

http://www.livescience.com/48256-asia-karakoram-glaciers-stability.html

Other reports show Himalayan glaciers have some growing, some shrinking and some static. I wish this AGW would be consistent in one region.

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BatteriesNotIncluded

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Re: Is 2 Degrees Heating Acceptable?
Reply #91 - Dec 5^th, 2015 at 11:33pm

Rider wrote on Dec 5^th, 2015 at 10:03am:

Quote:

China has hundreds of millions of people to bring out of dire poverty. It is also building non fossil fuel energy.

I imagine the Chinese govt has seen the retreat of the Himalayan glaciers that supply the meltwater to seven of the worlds biggest river that water one quarter of the world population and is now moving to reducing first the density of its CO₂ emissions and then the total amount.

Yeah...you imagine. Stop making this sh1te up will you.

Rider doesn't know climate is a harbinger of war...

What if the Chinese demand standards, dear mr Rider? Lucky you're surrounded by a moat then aint it buddy!

If the Ukraine had their special soil stolen from them by a nutter what the bugger do you think 1.3 billion people are going to do who've suddenly got a taste for the power of electricity and what they can do with it but all they've got in their way is an arable land problem?

That's right: send lefty to war like a good ol' sheeple fascist ,.. I mean wolf man fascist yeh you're a real wolf man!!

Cos you got eyes and stuff and stuff Cheesy

When it hits the fan you've got no left and right: it's the same fascist shite going front bottom up and you're crying for socialist institutions and everything you pretend you now hate Grin

Australia couldn't compete on the world market without government input: tell me i'm wrong- go on tell me!

Shocked

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*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is. It wouldn't be there without the tax payer. Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know.... (swaggy) *

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BatteriesNotIncluded

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Re: Is 2 Degrees Heating Acceptable?
Reply #92 - Dec 5^th, 2015 at 11:40pm

lee wrote on Dec 5^th, 2015 at 11:25am:

' She and her colleagues collected data on recent precipitation and temperatures from the Pakistan Meteorological Department and other sources, including satellite data. They combined this information with climate models to track changes in three regions of the Himalayas between 1861 and 2100: the Karakoram; the central Himalayas; and the southeast Himalayas which included part of the Tibetan Plateau.

The researchers found that a new model that simulates climate down to an area of 965 square miles (2,500 square kilometers) was able to match the observed temperature and precipitation cycles seen in the Karakoram. A model used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to simulate what will happen if the world continues to emit greenhouse gases at current rates was unable to capture these seasonal cycles, Kapnick said.

The reason, she said, is that the IPCC and other climate models are lower-resolution, capturing climate change over areas no finer than about 17,027 square miles (44,100 square km). The coarser resolution "smoothes out" variations in elevation, which works fine for the central Himalayas and southeast Himalayas. However, the Karakoram region has more elevation variability than the other two regions. Ultimately, the result is that the IPCC and other models overestimate the amount of warmth in this region, Kapnick said.'

http://www.livescience.com/48256-asia-karakoram-glaciers-stability.html

Other reports show Himalayan glaciers have some growing, some shrinking and some static. I wish this AGW would be consistent in one region.

You wish everything measured up don't you buddy!

You must be a demon in the sack ay Cheesy

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*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is. It wouldn't be there without the tax payer. Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know.... (swaggy) *

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BatteriesNotIncluded

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Re: Is 2 Degrees Heating Acceptable?
Reply #93 - Dec 5^th, 2015 at 11:48pm

Soren wrote on Dec 4^th, 2015 at 7:41pm:

Jovial Monk wrote on Dec 4^th, 2015 at 5:21pm:

Problem is—we are burning them so fast!

What is the 'correct' rate of burning them, plonker?

Soren doesn't believe in the economic concept of diminishing returns apparently.

Apparently the profitable dream that is represented by Jevons Paradox goes unchallenged around his kitchen table. Growth is good: the planet called accountant apparently doesn't have externalities !!

..and everyone is called kefffffffffffffffffffffffffer Roll Eyes

so the economics all stack up and stuff : we can all go back to sleep now children and dream white dreams of continued profits Shocked

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*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is. It wouldn't be there without the tax payer. Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know.... (swaggy) *

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issuevoter Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 9200 The Great State of Mind Gender:	Re: Is 2 Degrees Heating Acceptable? Reply #94 - Jan 8^th, 2016 at 10:26pm The short answer is "no."
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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21590 Gender:	Re: Is 2 Degrees Heating Acceptable? Reply #95 - Jan 8^th, 2016 at 10:46pm issuevoter wrote on Jan 8^th, 2016 at 10:26pm: The short answer is "no." Absolutely right. I don't feel comfortable unless it is at least 20ºC. Sometimes that requires 10ºC of heating or more.
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random

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Re: Is 2 Degrees Heating Acceptable?
Reply #96 - Jan 9^th, 2016 at 6:53am

lee wrote on Dec 5^th, 2015 at 11:25am:

' She and her colleagues collected data on recent precipitation and temperatures from the Pakistan Meteorological Department and other sources, including satellite data. They combined this information with climate models to track changes in three regions of the Himalayas between 1861 and 2100: the Karakoram; the central Himalayas; and the southeast Himalayas which included part of the Tibetan Plateau.

The researchers found that a new model that simulates climate down to an area of 965 square miles (2,500 square kilometers) was able to match the observed temperature and precipitation cycles seen in the Karakoram. A model used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to simulate what will happen if the world continues to emit greenhouse gases at current rates was unable to capture these seasonal cycles, Kapnick said.

The reason, she said, is that the IPCC and other climate models are lower-resolution, capturing climate change over areas no finer than about 17,027 square miles (44,100 square km). The coarser resolution "smoothes out" variations in elevation, which works fine for the central Himalayas and southeast Himalayas. However, the Karakoram region has more elevation variability than the other two regions. Ultimately, the result is that the IPCC and other models overestimate the amount of warmth in this region, Kapnick said.'

http://www.livescience.com/48256-asia-karakoram-glaciers-stability.html

Other reports show Himalayan glaciers have some growing, some shrinking and some static. I wish this AGW would be consistent in one region.

Here is the first para of your link.
"Glaciers around the world are melting, retreating and even vanishing altogether. But in the mountainous Karakoram region of Asia — home to K2, the second-highest peak on Earth — the glaciers aren't melting. If anything, some are expanding."

Pretty sure that is a great example of cherry picking when we have the real picture below.

"The World Glacier Monitoring Service, based at the University of Zurich in Switzerland and with partners in 30 countries, has been compiling data on changes in glaciers over the last 120 years. And it has just compared all known 21st century observations with data from site measurements, aerial photography and satellite observations and evidence from pictorial and written sources. Altogether, the service has collected 5,000 measurements of glacier volume and changes in mass since 1850, and 42,000 records of variations in glacier fronts from records dating back to the 16th century.

[i]
And the evidence is clear: the glaciers are in retreat, worldwide, and the retreat is accelerating
[/i]."

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/aug/04/speed-glacier-retreat-worldwi...

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« Last Edit: Jan 9^th, 2016 at 7:03am by random »

So many farkwits, so little time.

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Dnarever Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 62318 Here Gender:	Re: Is 2 Degrees Heating Acceptable? Reply #97 - Jan 9^th, 2016 at 7:00am Is 2 Degrees Heating Acceptable? My guess is that it will have to be and I doubt that we will get out of it that lightly. In fact I doubt that we will get any real action until this actually happens and we more than likely will be looking at closer to 5 degrees at best.
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random Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 2637 Gender:	Re: Is 2 Degrees Heating Acceptable? Reply #98 - Jan 9^th, 2016 at 7:04am ^ +1
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lee

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Re: Is 2 Degrees Heating Acceptable?
Reply #99 - Jan 9^th, 2016 at 11:48am

random wrote on Jan 9^th, 2016 at 6:53am:

The World Glacier Monitoring Service, based at the University of Zurich in Switzerland and with partners in 30 countries, has been compiling data on changes in glaciers over the last 120 years. And it has just compared all known 21st century observations with data from site measurements, aerial photography and satellite observations and evidence from pictorial and written sources. Altogether, the service has collected 5,000 measurements of glacier volume and changes in mass since 1850, and 42,000 records of variations in glacier fronts from records dating back to the 16th century.

And the evidence is clear: the glaciers are in retreat, worldwide, and the retreat is accelerating
."

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/aug/04/speed-glacier-retreat-worldwi...

Hmm, What does the World Glacier Monitoring Service, operating under UNEP, actually say?

' At present the database contains information for over 100000 glaciers throughout the world with an overall area of about 240000 km2(NSIDC 2008). This corresponds to about half of the total number and roughly one-third of the global ice cover of glaciers and ice caps, which are estimated at 160000 and 685000 km2,'

'The internationally coordinated collection of information on glacier changes has resulted in unprecedented compilations of data including some 36 000 length change observations and roughly 3 400 mass balance measurements for about 1 800 and 230 glaciers, respectively. The observation series are located around the globe, with a bias towards the Northern Hemisphere and in particular Europe. '

http://www.grid.unep.ch/glaciers/pdfs/glaciers.pdf

Out of about half (per WGMS), or 62.5% of the total (according to the figures in their top paragraph here, the Garudian comes to this conclusion -'And the evidence is clear: the glaciers are in retreat, worldwide, and the retreat is accelerating."

Absolutely stunning extrapolation.

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« Last Edit: Jan 9^th, 2016 at 11:54am by lee »

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random Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 2637 Gender:	Re: Is 2 Degrees Heating Acceptable? Reply #100 - Jan 9^th, 2016 at 7:11pm But they did. They know more about this than anonymous posters on the interweb. WTF would you know. In any kind of scientific measurement 62% is extremely high. But you don't know of such things.
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lee

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Re: Is 2 Degrees Heating Acceptable?
Reply #101 - Jan 9^th, 2016 at 7:24pm

random wrote on Jan 9^th, 2016 at 7:11pm:

But they did.

More from the story -

' “Exact measurements of this ice loss are reported from a few hundred glaciers only. However, these results are qualitatively confirmed from field and satellite observations for tens of thousands of glaciers around the world.” '

Sounds high quality data - NOT.

Their data is actually a few hundred out of 160,000.

And their satellite data MAY reach 62%, depending on the number of tens of thousands..

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« Last Edit: Jan 9^th, 2016 at 7:29pm by lee »

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Chimp_Logic Gold Member Offline πολιτικός Posts: 4826 Mawson Base Gender:	Re: Is 2 Degrees Heating Acceptable? Reply #102 - Jan 9^th, 2016 at 11:07pm
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Chimp_Logic

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Re: Is 2 Degrees Heating Acceptable?
Reply #103 - Jan 9^th, 2016 at 11:08pm

lee wrote on Jan 9^th, 2016 at 7:24pm:

random wrote on Jan 9^th, 2016 at 7:11pm:

But they did.

More from the story -

' “Exact measurements of this ice loss are reported from a few hundred glaciers only. However, these results are qualitatively confirmed from field and satellite observations for tens of thousands of glaciers around the world.” '

Sounds high quality data - NOT.

Their data is actually a few hundred out of 160,000.

That sample/population ratio is actually very healthy provided the sample is sufficiently randomised.

It is similar to a sample size of ~50,000 in a human population the size of Australia.

Statistical surveys in Australia with sample sizes of 50,000 or more are very rare.

the bulk of surveys rely on sample sizes that are less than 1000.

So lee, unless you can demonstrate that the few hundred glacier sample size that was surveyed was non-randomised and/or severely biased with respect to location, type, size etc, then you owe everybody awake on the planet at the moment a written apology.

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Dr Sircus cures cancer with Baking Soda and Magnesium - Jethro the MENTAL GIANT & his flute madness

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lee

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Re: Is 2 Degrees Heating Acceptable?
Reply #104 - Jan 10^th, 2016 at 12:20pm

Chimp_Logic wrote on Jan 9^th, 2016 at 11:08pm:

That sample/population ratio is actually very healthy provided the sample is sufficiently randomised.

lee wrote on Jan 9^th, 2016 at 11:48am:

The observation series are located around the globe, with a bias towards the Northern Hemisphere and in particular Europe. '

'The global compilation of front variation data, as qualitatively summarized in Figure 6, shows that glacier retreat has been dominant for the past two centuries, with LIA maximum extents reached (in some regions several times) between the mid-16th and the late 19th centuries. The qualitative summary of cumulative mean annual front variations (Fig. 6a) reveals a distinct trend toward global
centennial glacier retreat, with the early 21st century marking the historical minimum extent in all regions (except NZL and ANT, where few observations are available) at least for the time period of documented front variations.'

http://docserver.ingentaconnect.com/deliver/connect/igsoc/00221430/v61n228/s11.p...

The paper.

Figure 2 of the paper p 748 (or 4 of 18 in the pdf) shows the glaciers subject to scrutiny. Seems heavily biased to the Northern Hemisphere.

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