Australian Politics Forum - Turnbull our longest serving PM?

bogarde73

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Turnbull our longest serving PM?
Nov 26^th, 2015 at 8:51am

http://www.smh.com.au/comment/why-malcolm-turnbull-will-be-our-longestserving-pm...

Elizabeth Farrelly:
"Malcolm is different. His intelligence has light in it. I often disagree with him. We don't see eye-to-eye on tax, I'm suspicious of the TPP, I believe the sale of Darwin's port to the "private" company of Chinese government billionaire Ye Cheng was unwise and the approval of Adani's coal mine shocking. There is no moral case for coal.

And yet. And yet. Malcolm speaks to us not as a rabble of blithering chimps wanting their buttons pushed but as grownups, capable of considered argument, reasoned reflection and conscientious decision. For Australia, this is huge.

So here's my prediction. Malcolm – who like Beyonce is known universally by his first name – will be the longest-serving prime minister since Menzies. Possibly ever."

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bogarde73

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Re: Turnbull our longest serving PM?
Reply #1 - Nov 26^th, 2015 at 8:52am

He won't be a Menzies of course because that was the result of unique circumstances.
But if he plays his cards in the middle of the table he might get a couple of terms . . .after this one I mean.

His biggest challenge politically will be in keeping the Facebook generation off the protest pages and off the streets and he will only do that by being middle of the road, fair and non-controversial.

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Kat

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Re: Turnbull our longest serving PM?
Reply #2 - Nov 26^th, 2015 at 8:53am

Never.

Certainly not if he doesn't dump the austerity bullsh1t, dump the far-right, and pull the party
back to the centre-right. Which it hasn't been since Howard took over.

The far-right are destroying both the Party and the country.

Talksbull MUST distance himself from them and their filthy policies, or he WILL sink with them.

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cods

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Re: Turnbull our longest serving PM?
Reply #3 - Nov 26^th, 2015 at 8:59am

bogarde73 wrote on Nov 26^th, 2015 at 8:52am:

But if he plays his cards in the middle of the table he might get a couple of terms . . .after this one I mean.

His biggest challenge politically will be in keeping the Facebook generation off the protest pages and off the streets and he will only do that by being middle of the road, fair and non-controversial.

I CALL IT FENCE SITTING>>.

play it by the POLLS or talk back radio...

be popular at all costs..... always a winner..

to me he is shallow and transparent..just like kruddy two peas in a pod..

its a bit weird but so far I have predicted just about every move he has made.....there are certain words he will never USE...for instance no matter how bad the situation...we can have a bombing right here.. and he will never say Islam and Terrorist in the same sentence

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Maqqa Gold Member Offline 14% - that low?! Posts: 16000	Re: Turnbull our longest serving PM? Reply #4 - Nov 26^th, 2015 at 9:02am He certainly looks good so far.... He's a politician through and through and that's connecting with the middle - which is where you win the election
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bogarde73

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Re: Turnbull our longest serving PM?
Reply #5 - Nov 26^th, 2015 at 9:07am

Kat wrote on Nov 26^th, 2015 at 8:53am:

Never.

Certainly not if he doesn't dump the austerity bullsh1t, dump the far-right, and pull the party
back to the centre-right. Which it hasn't been since Howard took over.

The far-right are destroying both the Party and the country.

Talksbull MUST distance himself from them and their filthy policies, or he WILL sink with them.

Well he doesn't even need to campaign for the next term Kat. Labor are thoroughly discredited for the next four years, surely even you know that.

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skippy.

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Re: Turnbull our longest serving PM?
Reply #6 - Nov 26^th, 2015 at 9:08am

DDMaqqa wrote on Nov 26^th, 2015 at 9:02am:

He certainly looks good so far....

He's a politician through and through and that's connecting with the middle - which is where you win the election

Occasionally you make a comment that is not partisan bias bullsh it, not often, but sometimes, this is one of those times.

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Jovial Monk

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Re: Turnbull our longest serving PM?
Reply #7 - Nov 26^th, 2015 at 9:14am

This just shows how relieved most Lib supporters are that the thug is gone.

The economy is in trouble and the Libs are not going to fix it but rather make it worse.

I still predict Labor will win in 2016. It’s the economy, stupid.

As to Malcolm’s communication: he waffles, he spins and he flat out lies. Will take a little while for people to realise that, the Optus HFC and Darwin port sale to the Chinese govt debacles will be taking the shine off Malcolm’s image. Both were utterly preventable.

Malcolm just is not competent.

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bogarde73 Gold Member Offline Anti-Global & Contra Mundum Posts: 18443 Gender:	Re: Turnbull our longest serving PM? Reply #8 - Nov 26^th, 2015 at 9:20am How about you address a former PM with a modicum of civility unless of course you wish to place yourself among the echelons of the ratbags. Most Liberals are glad that there has been an orderly transition to a leader who is more suited to government than opposition.
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Bam

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Re: Turnbull our longest serving PM?
Reply #9 - Nov 26^th, 2015 at 9:21am

Quote:

So here's my prediction. Malcolm – who like Beyonce is known universally by his first name – will be the longest-serving prime minister since Menzies. Possibly ever.

No chance. He's already 61 years old and would have to win four elections as leader, the same number as Howard and Hawke. The fourth election could be held in late 2025. By then, he would be 71 years old. Few PMs have attained that age while PM. Turnbull's past shows that he is not someone who sticks around in one role for very long. He would be more likely to retire after a term or two.

There's also the possibility that Turnbull's popularity and approval could wane fairly quickly, as it did during his stint as Opposition leader in 2008 and 2009. Initially, Turnbull scored good satisfaction ratings as Opposition leader - his first Newspoll (September 2008) had a +25% on net satisfaction and he scored a respectable 24% on preferred PM against Rudd's 54%.

It did not last.

By August 2009, Turnbull's satisfaction ratings had deteriorated to a -31% on net satisfaction and his ratings as preferred PM had slipped as low as 16%. This is just 1 point higher than Shorten's preferred PM rating in the most recent Newspoll. Turnbull's last few months as leader had similar very low satisfaction ratings and his rating as preferred PM averaged in the high teens.

So this talk of Turnbull being the longest-serving PM since Menzies is very optimistic. One or two more scandals like Utegate, and Turnbull's popularity could go sour as quickly as it did in mid-2009.

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Jovial Monk

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Re: Turnbull our longest serving PM?
Reply #10 - Nov 26^th, 2015 at 9:32am

bogarde73 wrote on Nov 26^th, 2015 at 9:20am:

How about you address a former PM with a modicum of civility unless of course you wish to place yourself among the echelons of the ratbags.

Most Liberals are glad that there has been an orderly transition to a leader who is more suited to government than opposition.

IOW—they are glad the thug is gone!

As to addressing a former PM, remember all the remarks about JGPM? Fricking hypocrite!

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philperth2010 Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21034 Perth Gender:	Re: Turnbull our longest serving PM? Reply #11 - Nov 26^th, 2015 at 9:37am Malcolm Turnbull is the best of what is on offer....Unfortunately the right wing of the LNP are not impressed....Malcolm just might get my vote at the next election!!!
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Jovial Monk

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Re: Turnbull our longest serving PM?
Reply #12 - Nov 26^th, 2015 at 9:46am

philperth2010 wrote on Nov 26^th, 2015 at 9:37am:

Malcolm Turnbull is the best of what is on offer....Unfortunately the right wing of the LNP are not impressed....Malcolm just might get my vote at the next election!!!

No way will he get my vote! The stuffup about the Optus HFC and the FTTN will deliver barely 12:1 as Malcolm knew way back: http://alturl.com/2q3xh

Besides which, Malcolm is a puppet dancing to the strings pulled by the ultra right wing neocons in the Lib Party.

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Aussie

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Re: Turnbull our longest serving PM?
Reply #13 - Nov 26^th, 2015 at 10:01am

Bam wrote on Nov 26^th, 2015 at 9:21am:

Quote:

So here's my prediction. Malcolm – who like Beyonce is known universally by his first name – will be the longest-serving prime minister since Menzies. Possibly ever.

No chance. He's already 61 years old and would have to win four elections as leader, the same number as Howard and Hawke. The fourth election could be held in late 2025. By then, he would be 71 years old. Few PMs have attained that age while PM. Turnbull's past shows that he is not someone who sticks around in one role for very long. He would be more likely to retire after a term or two.

There's also the possibility that Turnbull's popularity and approval could wane fairly quickly, as it did during his stint as Opposition leader in 2008 and 2009. Initially, Turnbull scored good satisfaction ratings as Opposition leader - his first Newspoll (September 2008) had a +25% on net satisfaction and he scored a respectable 24% on preferred PM against Rudd's 54%.

It did not last.

By August 2009, Turnbull's satisfaction ratings had deteriorated to a -31% on net satisfaction and his ratings as preferred PM had slipped as low as 16%. This is just 1 point higher than Shorten's preferred PM rating in the most recent Newspoll. Turnbull's last few months as leader had similar very low satisfaction ratings and his rating as preferred PM averaged in the high teens.

So this talk of Turnbull being the longest-serving PM since Menzies is very optimistic. One or two more scandals like Utegate, and Turnbull's popularity could go sour as quickly as it did in mid-2009.

Nothing like good 'ol plain basic facts ~^^^^~ to stuff up an emotive point of view. This ~vvvvv~ is true, I reckon:

Quote:

...he is shallow and transparent...

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Kat

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Re: Turnbull our longest serving PM?
Reply #14 - Nov 26^th, 2015 at 10:06am

bogarde73 wrote on Nov 26^th, 2015 at 9:07am:

Kat wrote on Nov 26^th, 2015 at 8:53am:

Never.

Certainly not if he doesn't dump the austerity bullsh1t, dump the far-right, and pull the party
back to the centre-right. Which it hasn't been since Howard took over.

The far-right are destroying both the Party and the country.

Talksbull MUST distance himself from them and their filthy policies, or he WILL sink with them.

Well he doesn't even need to campaign for the next term Kat.

Labor are thoroughly discredited for the next four years

, surely even you know that.

Yes.

With no valid justification whatsoever.

The sheeple have been conned, and how!

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