Australian Politics Forum - 10 years of Turnbull

Cliff48

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Re: 10 years of Turnbull
Reply #30 - Oct 2^nd, 2015 at 8:14am

mariacostel wrote on Oct 2^nd, 2015 at 7:51am:

At this point it looks like Turncoat has his hands tied, he isn't allowed to fix virtually any of the problems that put the Liberals into trouble. In my view the problem has been poor policy, changing the head but keeping the problem in place does not solve anything for them.

In my view 3 months or so to get a base position and then see what happens.

On this rare occasion, I can actually agree with you.

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Johnsmith Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 4716 Gender:	Re: 10 years of Turnbull Reply #31 - Oct 2^nd, 2015 at 8:15am the threads used to be '10 years of Abbott' , and we saw how well that prediction turned out why not bring back the 10 yrs of abbott threads?
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Ex Dame Pansi

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Re: 10 years of Turnbull
Reply #32 - Oct 2^nd, 2015 at 8:17am

I still think it will depend on what the parties have to offer in their pre election 'promises' (lol)

If Turnbull wants austerity and continues to hit the bottom dwellers, he'll be ousted. Nobody wants an increase in the GST, they voted against it but Howard did it anyway.

If Shorty can come up with some magic to improve the lives of those in the lower 30% economic bracket, he'll be on a winner.

If Turnbull hangs onto too much of Abbott's baggage, he'll be a goner in the end.

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andrei said: Great isn't it? Seeing boatloads of what is nothing more than human garbage turn up.....

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Ex Dame Pansi

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Re: 10 years of Turnbull
Reply #33 - Oct 2^nd, 2015 at 8:19am

Cliff48 wrote on Oct 2^nd, 2015 at 8:14am:

mariacostel wrote on Oct 2^nd, 2015 at 7:51am:

At this point it looks like Turncoat has his hands tied, he isn't allowed to fix virtually any of the problems that put the Liberals into trouble. In my view the problem has been poor policy, changing the head but keeping the problem in place does not solve anything for them.

In my view 3 months or so to get a base position and then see what happens.

On this rare occasion, I can actually agree with you.

That's right maria, you are so clever, even us silly old lefties worked that out. See you at the club?

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"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace." Hendrix
andrei said: Great isn't it? Seeing boatloads of what is nothing more than human garbage turn up.....

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Bam

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Re: 10 years of Turnbull
Reply #34 - Oct 2^nd, 2015 at 9:10am

Dnarever wrote on Oct 2^nd, 2015 at 7:39am:

mariacostel wrote on Oct 2^nd, 2015 at 7:35am:

Its time wrote on Oct 1^st, 2015 at 8:18pm:

mariacostel wrote on Oct 1^st, 2015 at 4:34pm:

Aussie wrote on Oct 1^st, 2015 at 2:45pm:

bogarde73 wrote on Oct 1^st, 2015 at 2:43pm:

How's that make you feel?
Mr Consensus will gather the centre around him and stay the distance.
Not something we're used to now but I can see it happening.

Enjoy.

Maybe, but while Abbott and his mob are still there, the likelihood diminishes. The 'right' within the Libs are very unhappy their boy has been defrocked.

Link.

But as Peter Costello wrote, the Turnbull of 2007 is not the Turnbull of 2015. He has learned a lot more about consensus and leading a conservative party. Time will tell, particularly after winning the next election, but for now, the signs are good.

Counting your chickens before they hatch , thats where you came unstuck on your QLD election prediction . If the same policies remain that Australia has unanimously rejected no amount of charisma will sell them .

It seems to be working pretty well so far. 51/49 in front.

I see a strong argument to project that ten years into the future.

Fact is the current numbers come in an unreliable bedding in period. We will not really know if the polls mean anything for at least another 3 months.

I agree. All new leaders get some kind of a honeymoon period with enhanced poll numbers. Rudd had a polling honeymoon after becoming Prime Minister - twice. Even Abbott had one when the current Government was ahead in the polls for 2 months.

It didn't last. They never do. It's a matter of when, not if, the honeymoon and poll lead ends.

The honeymoon period may last for 2 or 3 months - a fairly typical length of time - or as long as a couple of years, as it did under Hawke. It may be sustained until the next election, or it may not. The only way that we can get an accurate handle on the polls is to wait out the length of a short honeymoon period - 3 months - and see how the Turnbull-led government is travelling then.

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Muttley

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Re: 10 years of Turnbull
Reply #35 - Oct 2^nd, 2015 at 9:33am

Sir Grappler Truth Teller OAM wrote on Oct 1^st, 2015 at 6:03pm:

mariacostel wrote on Oct 1^st, 2015 at 6:01pm:

Sir Grappler Truth Teller OAM wrote on Oct 1^st, 2015 at 5:52pm:

mariacostel wrote on Oct 1^st, 2015 at 5:46pm:

Sir Grappler Truth Teller OAM wrote on Oct 1^st, 2015 at 5:41pm:

Not unless he makes a 180 degree turn in policy - then where will Long Maria be?

A member of a party still in government.

We'll wait on that, shall we?

I'll be around in ten years and only just applying for the pension. Will you?

Most likely - I plan to suck the health system dry.....

Yep, you do sound like a bit of a leech.......also a sucker. Grin

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'The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.'

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mariacostel

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Re: 10 years of Turnbull
Reply #36 - Oct 2^nd, 2015 at 9:38am

Dnarever wrote on Oct 2^nd, 2015 at 8:06am:

mariacostel wrote on Oct 2^nd, 2015 at 7:51am:

Dnarever wrote on Oct 2^nd, 2015 at 7:39am:

mariacostel wrote on Oct 2^nd, 2015 at 7:35am:

Its time wrote on Oct 1^st, 2015 at 8:18pm:

mariacostel wrote on Oct 1^st, 2015 at 4:34pm:

Aussie wrote on Oct 1^st, 2015 at 2:45pm:

bogarde73 wrote on Oct 1^st, 2015 at 2:43pm:

How's that make you feel?
Mr Consensus will gather the centre around him and stay the distance.
Not something we're used to now but I can see it happening.

Enjoy.

Maybe, but while Abbott and his mob are still there, the likelihood diminishes. The 'right' within the Libs are very unhappy their boy has been defrocked.

Link.

But as Peter Costello wrote, the Turnbull of 2007 is not the Turnbull of 2015. He has learned a lot more about consensus and leading a conservative party. Time will tell, particularly after winning the next election, but for now, the signs are good.

Counting your chickens before they hatch , thats where you came unstuck on your QLD election prediction . If the same policies remain that Australia has unanimously rejected no amount of charisma will sell them .

It seems to be working pretty well so far. 51/49 in front.

I see a strong argument to project that ten years into the future.

Fact is the current numbers come in an unreliable bedding in period. We will not really know if the polls mean anything for at least another 3 months.

Probably true, but do you see Shorten doing anything amazing enough to take votes off the Libs? Do you see Turnbull doing anything to lose votes?

I don't see the current numbers being a reliable base yet to judge who is really in front.

Shorten is doing a good job as far as it goes he looks credible and consistent. The question is are the Liberals going to lose an election and I don't really see that much has changed. IMO Abbott was a good chance to win the next election despite what the polls were saying as horrific as that would have been.

I do not believe that a backstabber in a government full of turmoil is ever in as strong a position. Turnbull has a lot of flaws and a lot of political enemies that the electorate will probably have time to see before they vote next.

At this point it looks like Turncoat has his hands tied, he isn't allowed to fix virtually any of the problems that put the Liberals into trouble. In my view the problem has been poor policy, changing the head but keeping the problem in place does not solve anything for them.

In my view 3 months or so to get a base position and then see what happens.

Not even the ALP commentators are saying that about Shorten. Pretty much everyone is saying that he is a dud. And preferred PM might not mean who they vote for but when 25% of labor voters prefer Turnbull to Shorten then they are halfway to voting Liberal.

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Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 49792 Gender:	Re: 10 years of Turnbull Reply #37 - Oct 2^nd, 2015 at 9:42am People vote on policies. Hip pocket nerve if you like. Doesn’t matter what pretty boy is at the head.
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mariacostel

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Re: 10 years of Turnbull
Reply #38 - Oct 2^nd, 2015 at 10:16am

Jovial Monk wrote on Oct 2^nd, 2015 at 9:42am:

People vote on policies. Hip pocket nerve if you like. Doesn’t matter what pretty boy is at the head.

Not correct. When Rudd took over from Gillard his polls rose dramatically despite no changes in policies. He was a popular person although a complete fool. And Turnbull has maintained virtually every coalition policy and yet the polls have sky-rocketed.

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Prime Minister for Canyons

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Re: 10 years of Turnbull
Reply #39 - Oct 2^nd, 2015 at 10:18am

mariacostel wrote on Oct 2^nd, 2015 at 10:16am:

Jovial Monk wrote on Oct 2^nd, 2015 at 9:42am:

People vote on policies. Hip pocket nerve if you like. Doesn’t matter what pretty boy is at the head.

Not correct. When Rudd took over from Gillard his polls rose dramatically despite no changes in policies. He was a popular person although a complete fool. And Turnbull has maintained virtually every coalition policy and yet the polls have sky-rocketed.

Higher ed policy looks to be scrapped.

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In a time of universal deceit — telling the truth is a revolutionary act.

No evidence whatsoever it can be attributed to George Orwell or Eric Arthur Blair (in fact the same guy)

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Dnarever

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Re: 10 years of Turnbull
Reply #40 - Oct 2^nd, 2015 at 10:33am

mariacostel wrote on Oct 2^nd, 2015 at 10:16am:

Jovial Monk wrote on Oct 2^nd, 2015 at 9:42am:

People vote on policies. Hip pocket nerve if you like. Doesn’t matter what pretty boy is at the head.

Not correct. When Rudd took over from Gillard his polls rose dramatically despite no changes in policies. He was a popular person although a complete fool. And Turnbull has maintained virtually every coalition policy and yet the polls have sky-rocketed.

The change process always produces a poll reaction.

Turnbull has maintained virtually every coalition policy and yet the polls have sky-rocketed.

The majority of people contributing to the Turnbull polls would not be aware of that and may in fact be disappointed when they find out.

When Rudd took over from Gillard his polls rose dramatically despite no changes in policies

Rudd brought substantial policy change and he lost the election while being in front in the polls at this point of his leadership.

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Prime Minister for Canyons

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Re: 10 years of Turnbull
Reply #41 - Oct 2^nd, 2015 at 10:37am

Besides this maintenance of policies I think is sensible anyway given how long we've actually had Turnbull as PM.

He's only been in the job for 2 weeks. Do we want him instantly scrapping every single policy. Not all Tony Abbott policies were that bad. Instead careful consideration, consultation and replacement of policies should be the goal.

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In a time of universal deceit — telling the truth is a revolutionary act.

No evidence whatsoever it can be attributed to George Orwell or Eric Arthur Blair (in fact the same guy)

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Dnarever

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Re: 10 years of Turnbull
Reply #42 - Oct 2^nd, 2015 at 10:42am

mariacostel wrote on Oct 2^nd, 2015 at 9:38am:

Not even the ALP commentators are saying that about Shorten. Pretty much everyone is saying that he is a dud. And preferred PM might not mean who they vote for but when 25% of labor voters prefer Turnbull to Shorten then they are halfway to voting Liberal.

I don't see a lot of commentary about Shorten except from here.

Fact is that he came across well on QandA the other week At every budget reply he has knocked it out of the park making the Libs look stupid.

Labor look to be well organised behind the scenes and very stable. When we start to see their policies etc coming into the election year we may have a better idea but at the moment the Libs are floundering and Labor look stable and competent.

Shortens low profile strategy does not look like an obvious error at this stage.

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bogarde73

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Re: 10 years of Turnbull
Reply #43 - Oct 2^nd, 2015 at 10:52am

Unions and employers hail inclusive Malcolm Turnbull as national mood lifts

Date October 2, 2015 - 7:40AM

Mark Kenny and Nassim Khadem

Business groups, unions and welfare representatives have emerged from Thursday's mini-summit with Malcolm Turnbull united in supporting greater productivity.

The Turnbull government has reached in-principle agreement with unions, employers and welfare organisations to reduce a raft of concessional taxation arrangements that benefit the rich, as all sides hailed the prospect of a new era of consensus and co-operation in Canberra.

It followed the first direct ACTU-Coalition discussions since the 2013 election.

The sudden thawing of opposition to long-term reform possibilities that has come with the Turnbull prime ministership means superannuation concessions for the well-off, entirely ruled out of consideration by the Abbott government for political reasons, are firmly back on the agenda with all parties agreeing such arrangements need to be scrapped if they are not "fit for purpose".

Also in the frame are capital gains tax concessions on property held for longer than 12 months, and negative gearing on property, both of which have been criticised for having unintended consequences, such as distorting real estate markets and driving prices beyond the reach of first home buyers.

"There was a very, very strong agreement that concessions needed to be looked at," said Business Council of Australia Chief Executive Jennifer Westacott.

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/unions-and-employers-hail-...

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bogarde73 Gold Member Offline Anti-Global & Contra Mundum Posts: 18443 Gender:	Re: 10 years of Turnbull Reply #44 - Oct 2^nd, 2015 at 10:53am I rest my case your Honour.
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