Australian Politics Forum - Global Warming entering a very dangerous phase

BatteriesNotIncluded

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Re: Global Warming entering a very dangerous phase
Reply #15 - Sep 29^th, 2015 at 12:06pm

ordinaryguy wrote on Sep 28^th, 2015 at 11:21pm:

Chimp_Logic wrote on Sep 28^th, 2015 at 11:15pm:

Jovial Monk wrote on Sep 28^th, 2015 at 11:04pm:

Global warming has been happening all along.

what do you mean by "all along"?

According to the satellite data a the past 18 years hasn't warmed at all. How can it be warming. As far as I knew the global warming catch cry was dropped and we moved on to climate change because that was a safe bet as the climate is always changing.

You don't know when the term climate change was first used do you buddy !!

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Baronvonrort Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 20885 Gender:	Re: Global Warming entering a very dangerous phase Reply #16 - Sep 29^th, 2015 at 12:06pm Jovial Monk wrote on Sep 28^th, 2015 at 11:54pm: March 5, 2004: Global warming could plunge North America and Western Europe into a deep freeze, possibly within only a few decades
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Re: Global Warming entering a very dangerous phase
Reply #17 - Sep 29^th, 2015 at 12:07pm

ordinaryguy wrote on Sep 28^th, 2015 at 11:21pm:

Chimp_Logic wrote on Sep 28^th, 2015 at 11:15pm:

Jovial Monk wrote on Sep 28^th, 2015 at 11:04pm:

Global warming has been happening all along.

what do you mean by "all along"?

According to the satellite data a the past 18 years hasn't warmed at all. How can it be warming. As far as I knew the global warming catch cry was dropped and we moved on to climate change because that was a safe bet as the climate is always changing.

..also, your statistical analysis skills are not methodical!

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BatteriesNotIncluded Gold Member Offline MediocrityNET: because people died for this! Posts: 26966	Re: Global Warming entering a very dangerous phase Reply #18 - Sep 29^th, 2015 at 12:08pm Jovial Monk wrote on Sep 28^th, 2015 at 11:24pm: I always call it AGW. Wasn’t it Dubya called it CC to hide what was happening? What do you think will happen if the Gulf Stream disappears due to Greenland melts? No, the term "Climate Change" goes back a bit further than that!
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Re: Global Warming entering a very dangerous phase
Reply #19 - Sep 29^th, 2015 at 12:10pm

ordinaryguy wrote on Sep 29^th, 2015 at 12:23am:

Much depends on how fast the warming of the Arctic occurs, according to computer simulations by Thomas F. Stocker and Andreas Schmittner of the University of Bern. In their models, a faster warming could shut down the major Atlantic current completely, while a slower warming might only slow the current for a few centuries.
And, inevitably, the discussion turns to people. Does human industry play a major role in warming the Arctic? Could we reverse the trend, if we wanted to? Not all scientists agree. Some argue that the changes occuring in the Arctic are consistent with large, slow natural cycles in ocean behavior that are known to science. Others see a greater human component.
"The sea ice thawing is consistent with the warming we've seen in the last century," notes Spencer, but "we don't know how much of that warming is a natural climate fluctuation and what portion is due to manmade greenhouse gases."

Are you afraid to give your sources away??

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BatteriesNotIncluded

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Re: Global Warming entering a very dangerous phase
Reply #20 - Sep 29^th, 2015 at 12:13pm

Baronvonrort wrote on Sep 29^th, 2015 at 12:06pm:

Jovial Monk wrote on Sep 28^th, 2015 at 11:54pm:

March 5, 2004: Global warming could plunge North America and Western Europe into a deep freeze, possibly within only a few decades

It certainly is controversial as to whether the ocean conveyor stops but if it does it's very bad news for some!

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Jovial Monk

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Re: Global Warming entering a very dangerous phase
Reply #21 - Sep 29^th, 2015 at 12:20pm

lee wrote on Sep 29^th, 2015 at 11:30am:

What a load of tosh.

'In contrast to recent claims of a Gulf Stream slowdown, two decades of directly measured velocity across the current show no evidence of a decrease. Using a well-constrained definition of Gulf Stream width, the linear least square fit yields a mean surface layer transport of 1.35 × 105 m2 s−1 with a 0.13% negative trend per year. Assuming geostrophy, this corresponds to a mean cross-stream sea level difference of 1.17 m, with sea level decreasing 0.03 m over the 20 year period. This is not significant at the 95% confidence level, and it is a factor of 2–4 less than that alleged from accelerated sea level rise along the U.S. Coast north of Cape Hatteras.'

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013GL058636/abstract

I suggest you reread my OP. Then try to explain why there is a record cold spot at that location. Sealevel rise is an observed phenomenon, not something alleged.

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lee

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Re: Global Warming entering a very dangerous phase
Reply #22 - Sep 29^th, 2015 at 1:29pm

Jovial Monk wrote on Sep 28^th, 2015 at 10:50pm:

In March, several top climate scientists, including Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Michael Mann of Penn State, published a paper in Nature Climate Change suggesting that the gigantic ocean current known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC, is weakening. It is sometimes confused with the "Gulf Stream" but, in fact, that is just a southern branch of it.

You do know that study used climate models, don't you? The one I quoted used 2 decades (twenty years) of empirical data. Which to believe data or climate models?

Jovial Monk wrote on Sep 29^th, 2015 at 12:20pm:

Then try to explain why there is a record cold spot at that location. Sealevel rise is an observed phenomenon, not something alleged.

So there is a record cold spot, please point me to some form of proof that it is Greenland melting.

Meanwhile, -

'Greenland's ice sheet appears to be growing faster this winter than in recent years, according to new data from the Danish Meteorological Institute.

This increased rate of ice accumulation follows a virtual standstill in the loss of mass from the huge ice sheet last year that was reported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the US.'

http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/greenlands-ice-sheet...

Sea level rise has been going on since the last Ice Age as ice has melted.

Notice the rate of change in sea level rise at the beginning of the Vidarholmi graph?

Very similar to the last few years.

Or perhaps you prefer NOOA.

'The graphs compare the 95% confidence intervals of relative mean sea level trends for CO-OPS and global stations. Trends with the narrowest confidence intervals are based on the longest data sets. Trends with the widest confidence intervals are based on only 30-40 years of data. The graphs can provide an overarching indication of the differing rates of regional vertical land motion, given that the absolute global sea level rise is believed to be 1.7-1.8 millimeters/year. '

http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/globalregional.htm

not really scary is it? About 1/16".

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Jovial Monk

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Re: Global Warming entering a very dangerous phase
Reply #23 - Oct 2^nd, 2015 at 10:07am

Baronvonrort wrote on Sep 29^th, 2015 at 12:06pm:

Jovial Monk wrote on Sep 28^th, 2015 at 11:54pm:

March 5, 2004: Global warming could plunge North America and Western Europe into a deep freeze, possibly within only a few decades

Baron von Rot, you do know about the Gulfstream I take it? Fourth year HS science.

Here is a little project for you: look up the latitude of Anchorage, Alaska then look up the latitude of Edingburgh, London and Berlin. Then think, if you can.

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