Australian Politics Forum - Little Ice Age imminent?

Very_Vinnie

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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #120 - Jul 24^th, 2015 at 5:30pm

Very_Vinnie wrote on Jul 24^th, 2015 at 9:53am:

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 24^th, 2015 at 9:34am:

Very_Vinnie wrote on Jul 24^th, 2015 at 9:29am:

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 23^rd, 2015 at 8:58am:

... Co2 has increased and temperature has not a all.

No matter HOW many times you repeat David Rose's "tabloid tales"

- you're STILL repeating a pile of dog sh1t

find ANY graph of surface temperatures from any reliable source and you will find the same thing. try it and look.

Try NASA - or our own BOM
They'll let you see that global average temperatures have broken old and set new record highs at least half a dozen times over your "pause" period

2014 was the warmest year since records began - despite your claim of "no increase since 1996"

2015 is on track to surpass 2014 - despite your claim of "no increase since 1996"

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/GlobalWarming/page2.php

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There are those that look at things the way they are, and ask why?
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longweekend58

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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #121 - Jul 24^th, 2015 at 5:44pm

Very_Vinnie wrote on Jul 24^th, 2015 at 5:30pm:

Very_Vinnie wrote on Jul 24^th, 2015 at 9:53am:

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 24^th, 2015 at 9:34am:

Very_Vinnie wrote on Jul 24^th, 2015 at 9:29am:

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 23^rd, 2015 at 8:58am:

... Co2 has increased and temperature has not a all.

No matter HOW many times you repeat David Rose's "tabloid tales"

- you're STILL repeating a pile of dog sh1t

find ANY graph of surface temperatures from any reliable source and you will find the same thing. try it and look.

Try NASA - or our own BOM
They'll let you see that global average temperatures have broken old and set new record highs at least half a dozen times over your "pause" period

2014 was the warmest year since records began - despite your claim of "no increase since 1996"

2015 is on track to surpass 2014 - despite your claim of "no increase since 1996"

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/GlobalWarming/images/giss_temperature....

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/GlobalWarming/page2.php

nicely biased of you to show a graph that ends 5 years ago. But even then take a look at the faint line which is actual annual averages and you will see they all oscillate arund a HORIZONTAL LINE meaning no increase. and if you get the current version of this grpah with up to 2015 you will see the 5 year average line has also plateaued.

your graph made MY point for me. I guess you cannot read graphs. No surprise.

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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

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Sir lastnail

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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #122 - Jul 24^th, 2015 at 5:58pm

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 24^th, 2015 at 3:51pm:

John_Taverner wrote on Jul 24^th, 2015 at 3:35pm:

There is no need to explain anything of the kind. It is established beyond any reasonable doubt that increasing CO2 leads to an increase in Radiative Forcing due to CO2. That has been established time and time again using emission spectra and a progressive decrease in LWIR radation over time at the peak caused by CO2.

That relationship is well established, and it is logarithmic.

The Law of Conservation of Energy leads one to the inevitable conclusion that the extra heat must be doing something - if not conversion to kinetic energy (higher winds etc), then an increase in temperature.

That "something" has been reasonably well defined.

you are missing the point. CO2 increases and temperature has NOT increased. Clearly and obviously the drivers of temperature are a lot more complex and substantial than mere CO2 concentrations. That is the problem you face - your theory of a relationship has failed. IF there is a relationship then the limits to its application have been exceeded.

so what is the relationship then ? Maybe God controls it and only he knows Cheesy

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longweekend58

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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #123 - Jul 24^th, 2015 at 6:12pm

Sir lastnail wrote on Jul 24^th, 2015 at 5:58pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 24^th, 2015 at 3:51pm:

John_Taverner wrote on Jul 24^th, 2015 at 3:35pm:

There is no need to explain anything of the kind. It is established beyond any reasonable doubt that increasing CO2 leads to an increase in Radiative Forcing due to CO2. That has been established time and time again using emission spectra and a progressive decrease in LWIR radation over time at the peak caused by CO2.

That relationship is well established, and it is logarithmic.

The Law of Conservation of Energy leads one to the inevitable conclusion that the extra heat must be doing something - if not conversion to kinetic energy (higher winds etc), then an increase in temperature.

That "something" has been reasonably well defined.

you are missing the point. CO2 increases and temperature has NOT increased. Clearly and obviously the drivers of temperature are a lot more complex and substantial than mere CO2 concentrations. That is the problem you face - your theory of a relationship has failed. IF there is a relationship then the limits to its application have been exceeded.

so what is the relationship then ? Maybe God controls it and only he knows Cheesy

it is not a relationship at all. the components of temperature are incredibly complex and not well known. In fact it is not even poorly known but rather barely known. there are dozens of inputs to temperature, some of which we are still unaware and others which we do not understand.

The relationship taverer is referring to is a closed system experimental setup where only one variable changes - CO2 concentration. This gives us a relationship that is perfectly accurate and utterly unhelpful in a system with 50 other variables in play.

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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

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Very_Vinnie

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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #124 - Jul 24^th, 2015 at 6:23pm

Swagman wrote on Jul 8^th, 2015 at 3:57pm:

http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/586404/Britain-freezing-winters-slump-solar...

Quote:

Britain faces FREEZING winters as slump in solar activity threatens 'little Ice Age'

BRITAIN could face colder than average winters with a plunge in solar activity threatening a new "little ice age" in the next few decades.

Climate experts warn the amount of light and warmth released by the sun is nosediving to levels "not seen for centuries".

They fear a repeat of the so-called 'Maunder Minimum' which triggered Arctic winter whiteouts and led to the River Thames freezing 300 years ago.

The Met Office-led study warns although the effect will be offset by recent global warming, Britain faces years of unusually cold winters.

A spokesman said: "A return to low solar activity not seen for centuries could increase the chances of cold winters in Europe and eastern parts of the United States but wouldn't halt global warming.

"Return of 'grand solar minimum' could affect European and eastern US winters."

Long episodes of low solar activity were seen during the Maunder Minimum between 1645 and 1715 and the 'Dalton Minimum' from 1790 to 1830.

Both periods coincided with colder-than-normal global temperatures earning the title from scientists of "Little Ice Age."

The latest study, published in Nature Communications, found reduced solar activity will lead to an overall cooling of the Earth of 0.1C.

A much bigger cooling effect is expected for Britain, northern Europe and North America where thermometers could drop by 0.8C.

Amanda Maycock, of the University of Cambridge and National Centre for Atmospheric Science, said: "It's important that we consider the potential impact of changes in UV output when looking at future climate."

Anyone caught up in the media frenzy and hype over a 'little ice age' might like to read this report
- top to bottom -
for a bit of a reality check

http://www.abc.net.au/mediawatch/transcripts/s4277443.htm

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There are those that look at things the way they are, and ask why?
I dream of things that never were, and ask why not?

- Robert Francis Kennedy

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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 18851 Gender:	Re: Little Ice Age imminent? Reply #125 - Jul 24^th, 2015 at 6:39pm 'And while that was last seen during the ‘mini ice age’ as the Royal Astronomical Society told us in an ill-worded media release ...' Not very scientific of them was it?
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Very_Vinnie

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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #126 - Jul 24^th, 2015 at 6:39pm

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 24^th, 2015 at 5:44pm:

Very_Vinnie wrote on Jul 24^th, 2015 at 5:30pm:

Very_Vinnie wrote on Jul 24^th, 2015 at 9:53am:

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 24^th, 2015 at 9:34am:

Very_Vinnie wrote on Jul 24^th, 2015 at 9:29am:

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 23^rd, 2015 at 8:58am:

... Co2 has increased and temperature has not a all.

No matter HOW many times you repeat David Rose's "tabloid tales"

- you're STILL repeating a pile of dog sh1t

find ANY graph of surface temperatures from any reliable source and you will find the same thing. try it and look.

Try NASA - or our own BOM
They'll let you see that global average temperatures have broken old and set new record highs at least half a dozen times over your "pause" period

2014 was the warmest year since records began - despite your claim of "no increase since 1996"

2015 is on track to surpass 2014 - despite your claim of "no increase since 1996"

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/GlobalWarming/images/giss_temperature....

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/GlobalWarming/page2.php

take a look at the faint line which is actual annual averages and you will see they all oscillate arund a HORIZONTAL LINE

from 1996 till the end of the graph

meaning no increase ... over the last 20 years of "pause"

NO, it DOESN'T

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There are those that look at things the way they are, and ask why?
I dream of things that never were, and ask why not?

- Robert Francis Kennedy

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John_Taverner

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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #127 - Jul 24^th, 2015 at 6:41pm

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 24^th, 2015 at 3:51pm:

you are missing the point. CO2 increases and temperature has NOT increased. Clearly and obviously the drivers of temperature are a lot more complex and substantial than mere CO2 concentrations. That is the problem you face - your theory of a relationship has failed. IF there is a relationship then the limits to its application have been exceeded.

Do you understand the difference between heat and temperature?

The research shows that the heat escaping to space has decreased.

Again you fail to understand what you are arguing about. Nobody is saying that the drivers of global temperature are anything but complex, but well defined.

Good grief, the last IPCC report went into volumes about it.

What's wrong with you Longfellow? You keep coming up with simplistic strawmen.

Can you really be that ignorant about what you are supposed to be arguing about?

Rule 1 of debating- understand what you are arguing against. If you don't, you will make a fool of yourself.

You have made a fool of yourself twice so far.

lee wrote on Jul 24^th, 2015 at 3:42pm:

What is the level of CO2 saturation? Please tell us John.

Ask Longbottom, (the blind leading the blind) or at least try to understand the questions you are asking.,

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Very_Vinnie

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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #128 - Jul 24^th, 2015 at 6:49pm

lee wrote on Jul 24^th, 2015 at 6:39pm:

'And while that was last seen during the ‘mini ice age’ as the Royal Astronomical Society told us in an ill-worded media release ...'

Not very scientific of them was it ?

... and not very scientific of the British MET Office to use the word "pause" - in describing a slight slowing in the rate of increase in annual global average temperatures

... though the MET did correct themselves in a clarification - via a media release, within 24 hours - a release the climate change denial lobby conveniently ignore, still quoting a "pause"

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There are those that look at things the way they are, and ask why?
I dream of things that never were, and ask why not?

- Robert Francis Kennedy

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lee

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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #129 - Jul 24^th, 2015 at 7:11pm

Very_Vinnie wrote on Jul 24^th, 2015 at 6:49pm:

.... and not very scientific of the British MET Office to use the word "pause"

Or the IPCC to use hiatus.

Or over 50 papers explaining the reason for the 'pause; or the 'hiatus'. You would think that if it wasn't there they would know better.

Must be the class of climate scientists they are employing these days.

John_Taverner wrote on Jul 24^th, 2015 at 6:41pm:

Ask Longbottom, (the blind leading the blind) or at least try to understand the questions you are asking.,
Posted by: Very_Vinnie Mark & Quote

Seeing as you don't know.

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innocentbystander. Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 4723 Gender:	Re: Little Ice Age imminent? Reply #130 - Jul 24^th, 2015 at 8:13pm Very_Vinnie wrote on Jul 24^th, 2015 at 9:29am: No matter HOW many times you repeat David Rose's "tabloid tales" Have you any idea how pitiful and ridiculous the David Rose argument is? ... obviously not
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longweekend58

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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #131 - Jul 24^th, 2015 at 8:18pm

Very_Vinnie wrote on Jul 24^th, 2015 at 6:23pm:

Swagman wrote on Jul 8^th, 2015 at 3:57pm:

http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/586404/Britain-freezing-winters-slump-solar...

Quote:

Britain faces FREEZING winters as slump in solar activity threatens 'little Ice Age'

BRITAIN could face colder than average winters with a plunge in solar activity threatening a new "little ice age" in the next few decades.

Climate experts warn the amount of light and warmth released by the sun is nosediving to levels "not seen for centuries".

They fear a repeat of the so-called 'Maunder Minimum' which triggered Arctic winter whiteouts and led to the River Thames freezing 300 years ago.

The Met Office-led study warns although the effect will be offset by recent global warming, Britain faces years of unusually cold winters.

A spokesman said: "A return to low solar activity not seen for centuries could increase the chances of cold winters in Europe and eastern parts of the United States but wouldn't halt global warming.

"Return of 'grand solar minimum' could affect European and eastern US winters."

Long episodes of low solar activity were seen during the Maunder Minimum between 1645 and 1715 and the 'Dalton Minimum' from 1790 to 1830.

Both periods coincided with colder-than-normal global temperatures earning the title from scientists of "Little Ice Age."

The latest study, published in Nature Communications, found reduced solar activity will lead to an overall cooling of the Earth of 0.1C.

A much bigger cooling effect is expected for Britain, northern Europe and North America where thermometers could drop by 0.8C.

Amanda Maycock, of the University of Cambridge and National Centre for Atmospheric Science, said: "It's important that we consider the potential impact of changes in UV output when looking at future climate."

Anyone caught up in the media frenzy and hype over a 'little ice age' might like to read this report
- top to bottom -
for a bit of a reality check

http://www.abc.net.au/mediawatch/transcripts/s4277443.htm

a rather hysterical response to say the least. there were some beauties in there such as the little ice age only occuring in the northern hemisphere. the evidence for that is nil and a presumptous bit of nonsense. Adn the fact the Maunder Minimum occured durign the Littel Ice age? Irrelevent. of course it is because nothing at all is ever allowed to dispute the holy religion that is climate change, not even the weather which itself refuses to co-operate.

complete drivel as always.

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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

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Very_Vinnie

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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #132 - Jul 24^th, 2015 at 9:02pm

innocentbystander. wrote on Jul 24^th, 2015 at 8:13pm:

Very_Vinnie wrote on Jul 24^th, 2015 at 9:29am:

No matter HOW many times you repeat David Rose's "tabloid tales"

Have you any idea how pitiful and ridiculous the David Rose argument is? ... obviously not Grin

I'm not a follower
I AGREE his argument is "pitiful and ridiculous"
I thought I'd made that OBVIOUS ?

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There are those that look at things the way they are, and ask why?
I dream of things that never were, and ask why not?

- Robert Francis Kennedy

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longweekend58

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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #133 - Jul 24^th, 2015 at 9:09pm

Very_Vinnie wrote on Jul 24^th, 2015 at 9:02pm:

innocentbystander. wrote on Jul 24^th, 2015 at 8:13pm:

Very_Vinnie wrote on Jul 24^th, 2015 at 9:29am:

No matter HOW many times you repeat David Rose's "tabloid tales"

Have you any idea how pitiful and ridiculous the David Rose argument is? ... obviously not Grin

I'm not a follower
I AGREE his argument is "pitiful and ridiculous"
I thought I'd made that OBVIOUS ?

i dont think you find ANYTHING obvious. you believe what you are told and lack the education or intelligence to confirm it yourself.

you are most to be pitied.

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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

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innocentbystander.

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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #134 - Jul 24^th, 2015 at 9:12pm

Very_Vinnie wrote on Jul 24^th, 2015 at 9:02pm:

innocentbystander. wrote on Jul 24^th, 2015 at 8:13pm:

Very_Vinnie wrote on Jul 24^th, 2015 at 9:29am:

No matter HOW many times you repeat David Rose's "tabloid tales"

Have you any idea how pitiful and ridiculous the David Rose argument is? ... obviously not Grin

I'm not a follower
I AGREE his argument is "pitiful and ridiculous"
I thought I'd made that OBVIOUS ?

All you are doing is waving a white flag.

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