Australian Politics Forum - Rumours of an early Federal Election grow

Bam

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 21905
Gender: male

Re: Rumours of an early Federal Election grow
Reply #75 - Jun 26^th, 2015 at 11:52pm

Antony Green's blog has a discussion on an early election. He backs up my point about section 13 of the Constitution.

He also raises the interesting point that the only trigger for a double dissolution is a single piece of legislation (Clean Energy Finance Corporation (Abolition) Bill) that has not actually been presented to the current Senate. If Abbott was to request a double dissolution, GG Cosgrove would be entitled to ask: why hasn't Abbott tried passing this legislation with the current Senate?

It also makes a mockery of the idea that the Senate has been obstructionist. Only one law has satisfied the conditions for a DD trigger, and none at all has satisfied the conditions for a DD trigger with the current Senate!

Back to top

You are not entitled to your opinion. You are only entitled to hold opinions that you can defend through sound, reasoned argument.

IP Logged

Bam Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21905 Gender:	Re: Rumours of an early Federal Election grow Reply #76 - Jun 26^th, 2015 at 11:53pm flip the page.
Back to top	You are not entitled to your opinion. You are only entitled to hold opinions that you can defend through sound, reasoned argument. IP Logged

Karnal

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 98849

Re: Rumours of an early Federal Election grow
Reply #77 - Jun 27^th, 2015 at 12:03am

Bam wrote on Jun 26^th, 2015 at 11:52pm:

Antony Green's blog has a discussion on an early election. He backs up my point about section 13 of the Constitution.

He also raises the interesting point that the only trigger for a double dissolution is a single piece of legislation (Clean Energy Finance Corporation (Abolition) Bill) that has not actually been presented to the current Senate. If Abbott was to request a double dissolution, GG Cosgrove would be entitled to ask: why hasn't Abbott tried passing this legislation with the current Senate?

It also makes a mockery of the idea that the Senate has been obstructionist. Only one law has satisfied the conditions for a DD trigger, and none at all has satisfied the conditions for a DD trigger with the current Senate!

Why does he need a Double Dissolution? He could simply go for the House of Reps with the intention of shoring off a challenge.

This would make his next term just as unproductive as the current one, but remember:

Good government starts today.

Back to top

IP Logged

Grendel Gold Member Offline OzPolitic Posts: 28080 Gender:	Re: Rumours of an early Federal Election grow Reply #78 - Jun 27^th, 2015 at 11:01am You go to a DD in the hopes of winning the election and garnering a majority in the Senate I don't see it happening with this government, there are severe trust issues.
Back to top	IP Logged

Bam

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 21905
Gender: male

Re: Rumours of an early Federal Election grow
Reply #79 - Jun 27^th, 2015 at 3:29pm

Grendel wrote on Jun 27^th, 2015 at 11:01am:

You go to a DD in the hopes of winning the election and garnering a majority in the Senate Roll Eyes

I don't see it happening with this government, there are severe trust issues.

I don't see it happening either. There is no demonstrable Senate obstruction to justify a DD election. A half-Senate election cannot be held before 6 August 2016. An early election must therefore be for the House only, unless the Government obtains some DD triggers in the meantime.

After reading Green's assessment - which accords fairly closely with my own - I have to say the chances of an early election are unlikely.

Back to top

You are not entitled to your opinion. You are only entitled to hold opinions that you can defend through sound, reasoned argument.

IP Logged

greggerypeccary Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 145552 Gender:	Re: Rumours of an early Federal Election grow Reply #80 - Jun 27^th, 2015 at 4:48pm Bam wrote on Jun 27^th, 2015 at 3:29pm: There is no demonstrable Senate obstruction to justify a DD election. http://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Bills_Legislation/Bills_Search_Resu...
Back to top	IP Logged

Bam

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 21905
Gender: male

Re: Rumours of an early Federal Election grow
Reply #81 - Jun 27^th, 2015 at 5:30pm

greggerypeccary wrote on Jun 27^th, 2015 at 4:48pm:

Bam wrote on Jun 27^th, 2015 at 3:29pm:

There is no demonstrable Senate obstruction to justify a DD election.

http://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Bills_Legislation/Bills_Search_Resu...

26 Jun 2014 = OLD Senate.

This is not a bill that satisfies the requirements of Section 57 of the Constitution because this bill has not ever been presented to the current Senate. How can there be Senate "obstruction" with the current Senate if there are no bills that demonstrate this?

For that reason, Abbott would have a hard time convincing GG Cosgrove that a valid trigger exists.

Back to top

You are not entitled to your opinion. You are only entitled to hold opinions that you can defend through sound, reasoned argument.

IP Logged

longweekend58

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 45675
Gender: male

Re: Rumours of an early Federal Election grow
Reply #82 - Jun 27^th, 2015 at 5:34pm

Bam wrote on Jun 27^th, 2015 at 3:29pm:

Grendel wrote on Jun 27^th, 2015 at 11:01am:

You go to a DD in the hopes of winning the election and garnering a majority in the Senate Roll Eyes

I don't see it happening with this government, there are severe trust issues.

I don't see it happening either. There is no demonstrable Senate obstruction to justify a DD election. A half-Senate election cannot be held before 6 August 2016. An early election must therefore be for the House only, unless the Government obtains some DD triggers in the meantime.

After reading Green's assessment - which accords fairly closely with my own - I have to say the chances of an early election are unlikely.

I dont think ABbott cares about the senate election either way. he cant get a majority, the GReens oppose almost anything and the indies are either stupid, crazy or both (excluding Mr X) and so the only thing he can do is keep labor out of majority in the lower house. An early election could do that.

there is however a delicious 'out there' scenario. Labor dumps Shorten after a short traditional public display of fighting and puts Plibersek in the job. Libs polling goes to 55/45 immediately. Abbott sends a bill to the senate to be rejected and then 90days later when the polls are 60/40 his way he has a DD where he gets control of both houses.

Admittedly, a rather unlikely event, but you can see the idiot lefty feminists lusting (?) after another woman leader to take them to destruction like the last one. And if you thought Gillard was a little lacking in the class department in public, wait until you hear Plibersek in action!

Back to top

AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

IP Logged

greggerypeccary

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 145552
Gender: male

Re: Rumours of an early Federal Election grow
Reply #83 - Jun 27^th, 2015 at 5:38pm

Bam wrote on Jun 27^th, 2015 at 5:30pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on Jun 27^th, 2015 at 4:48pm:

Bam wrote on Jun 27^th, 2015 at 3:29pm:

There is no demonstrable Senate obstruction to justify a DD election.

http://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Bills_Legislation/Bills_Search_Resu...

26 Jun 2014 = OLD Senate.

This is not a bill that satisfies the requirements of Section 57 of the Constitution because this bill has not ever been presented to the current Senate.

June 25, 2015

"The government has one trigger available for calling a double dissolution, the Clean Energy Finance Corporation (Abolition) Bill. This meets the simple requirement of Section 57 of the Constitution in having been defeated twice in the Senate with the necessary three month gap.

"However, both defeats occurred with the old Senate, before Senators elected at the 2013 election took their seats on 1 July 2014.

"The Constitutional lawyers will tell you this meets the requirements of Section 57 and would allow a double-dissolution to be called."

http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2015/06/there-is-some-wild-speculation-about...

Back to top

IP Logged

longweekend58

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 45675
Gender: male

Re: Rumours of an early Federal Election grow
Reply #84 - Jun 27^th, 2015 at 5:38pm

Bam wrote on Jun 27^th, 2015 at 5:30pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on Jun 27^th, 2015 at 4:48pm:

Bam wrote on Jun 27^th, 2015 at 3:29pm:

There is no demonstrable Senate obstruction to justify a DD election.

http://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Bills_Legislation/Bills_Search_Resu...

26 Jun 2014 = OLD Senate.

This is not a bill that satisfies the requirements of Section 57 of the Constitution because this bill has not ever been presented to the current Senate. How can there be Senate "obstruction" with the current Senate if there are no bills that demonstrate this?

For that reason, Abbott would have a hard time convincing GG Cosgrove that a valid trigger exists.

If Abbott wanted a trigger it would be easy. Just present a bill the senate would never pass - which isnt hard since there are so many to choose from. The reason no trigger exists is becaue it is pointless to send a bill to the senate twice knowing it will be beaten unless you want a DD trigger. And why would he want to do that when polls have him at only slightly in front of winning and no chance of changing the senate? you might think Abbott is a fool but he very clearly is not - unlike Rudd who had TWO triggers and was afraid to use them.

Back to top

AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

IP Logged

Its time

Gold Member

Offline

Boot libs out

Posts: 25639
Gender: female

Re: Rumours of an early Federal Election grow
Reply #85 - Jun 27^th, 2015 at 5:39pm

Bobby. wrote on Jun 25^th, 2015 at 10:14pm:

Setanta wrote on Jun 25^th, 2015 at 9:59pm:

Bobby. wrote on Jun 25^th, 2015 at 9:46pm:

Dear Greggy,
Abbott is a cunning wolf who senses easy prey in Shorten -

Abbott takes no prisoners.

Off with his head!

Shorten is sounding too sanctimonious in parliament -

especially when he carried on about supporting Abbott's new laws on refugees.

Abbott senses a kill.

It was an obvious tatic from shorten that removed criticism about boats starting up again , how it became the second biggest issue pre election gives an indication just how bereft the public are of critical thought, probably DT subscribers , they aint the sharpest tools in shed Roll Eyes

Back to top

IP Logged

Its time

Gold Member

Offline

Boot libs out

Posts: 25639
Gender: female

Re: Rumours of an early Federal Election grow
Reply #86 - Jun 27^th, 2015 at 5:43pm

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 27^th, 2015 at 5:38pm:

Bam wrote on Jun 27^th, 2015 at 5:30pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on Jun 27^th, 2015 at 4:48pm:

Bam wrote on Jun 27^th, 2015 at 3:29pm:

There is no demonstrable Senate obstruction to justify a DD election.

http://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Bills_Legislation/Bills_Search_Resu...

26 Jun 2014 = OLD Senate.

This is not a bill that satisfies the requirements of Section 57 of the Constitution because this bill has not ever been presented to the current Senate. How can there be Senate "obstruction" with the current Senate if there are no bills that demonstrate this?

For that reason, Abbott would have a hard time convincing GG Cosgrove that a valid trigger exists.

If Abbott wanted a trigger it would be easy. Just present a bill the senate would never pass - which isnt hard since there are so many to choose from. The reason no trigger exists is becaue it is pointless to send a bill to the senate twice knowing it will be beaten unless you want a DD trigger. And why would he want to do that when polls have him at only slightly in front of winning and no chance of changing the senate? you might think Abbott is a fool but he very clearly is not - unlike Rudd who had TWO triggers and was afraid to use them.

Aborts just prolonging the inevitable , come election time sloppy double the deficit , i am gay pyne and a raft of other lib under achievers are gone . Even the retards in warringah couldnt be that daft a second time .

Back to top

IP Logged

longweekend58

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 45675
Gender: male

Re: Rumours of an early Federal Election grow
Reply #87 - Jun 27^th, 2015 at 5:49pm

Its time wrote on Jun 27^th, 2015 at 5:43pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 27^th, 2015 at 5:38pm:

Bam wrote on Jun 27^th, 2015 at 5:30pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on Jun 27^th, 2015 at 4:48pm:

Bam wrote on Jun 27^th, 2015 at 3:29pm:

There is no demonstrable Senate obstruction to justify a DD election.

http://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Bills_Legislation/Bills_Search_Resu...

26 Jun 2014 = OLD Senate.

This is not a bill that satisfies the requirements of Section 57 of the Constitution because this bill has not ever been presented to the current Senate. How can there be Senate "obstruction" with the current Senate if there are no bills that demonstrate this?

For that reason, Abbott would have a hard time convincing GG Cosgrove that a valid trigger exists.

If Abbott wanted a trigger it would be easy. Just present a bill the senate would never pass - which isnt hard since there are so many to choose from. The reason no trigger exists is becaue it is pointless to send a bill to the senate twice knowing it will be beaten unless you want a DD trigger. And why would he want to do that when polls have him at only slightly in front of winning and no chance of changing the senate? you might think Abbott is a fool but he very clearly is not - unlike Rudd who had TWO triggers and was afraid to use them.

Aborts just prolonging the inevitable , come election time sloppy double the deficit , i am gay pyne and a raft of other lib under achievers are gone . Even the retards in warringah couldnt be that daft a second time .

isnt it time for you to tell us all about how you think the moon-landing is a conspiracy? that would be in keeping with the rubbish you just wrote.

Back to top

AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

IP Logged

John Smith Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 77732 Gender:	Re: Rumours of an early Federal Election grow Reply #88 - Jun 27^th, 2015 at 5:49pm early, late, it won't matter .... next election will be abbotts last.
Back to top	Our esteemed leader: I hope that bitch who was running their brothels for them gets raped with a cactus. IP Logged

longweekend58

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 45675
Gender: male

Re: Rumours of an early Federal Election grow
Reply #89 - Jun 27^th, 2015 at 5:57pm

John Smith wrote on Jun 27^th, 2015 at 5:49pm:

early, late, it won't matter .... next election will be abbotts last. Grin

dream on. the polls are already 49/51 which puts abbott slightly ahead for a win already. and thats before we have the embarassment of Shorten and Labor campaigning on
a) bring back the carbon tax
b) increase capital gains tax
c) reduce negative gearing
d) start the boats arriving again
e) "let the spending begin!!!!"

you dnot think that is 3-5% worth of swing to the Libs in that alone? And that is assuming Shorten doesnt divorce anyone, get accused of something corrupt/criminal or make a general fool ofhimself - some of which you KNOW will happen.

I predict Abbott to win 52/48 and lose a handful of seats but probably gain a senate seat or two.

Back to top

AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

IP Logged