Australian Politics Forum - Rumours of an early Federal Election grow

Bam

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Re: Rumours of an early Federal Election grow
Reply #60 - Jun 25^th, 2015 at 9:11pm

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 25^th, 2015 at 7:57pm:

Bam wrote on Jun 25^th, 2015 at 7:37pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 25^th, 2015 at 6:11pm:

Abbott will not go for an election this early.

I agree, the poor opinion polling for the Coalition would stay Abbott's hand.

Quote:

voters hate early elections and punish hem for it (just ask bob hawke in 1984).

The 1984 election was not as early as people seem to think. The previous election was a double dissolution election. This means the Senators' terms were backdated to July 1, 1982 and the next election had to be held by July 1, 1985 to keep the House and Senate elections in step.

Every double dissolution election is always followed by another early Senate election. It is a consequence of section 13 of the Constitution. It is customary for the House to go to the polls at the same time. An early election after a double dissolution is therefore standard operating procedure.

Hawke could have gone as late as June, 1985, but no later.
Quote:

Abbott doesnt have that many votes to play with so he wont go early unless the polls take a massive swing to his side and that appear unlikely. I would tip an election early next year eg March and no earlier. it is only 6 months early so no real biggie from the voters. An early election at this time would probably lose him too many votes to win.

You're wrong here. Any election before August, 2015 would have to be a House-only election because the writs for a half-Senate election cannot be issued more than 12 months before the expiration of the Senate terms. We haven't had an early election that put the House and Senate out of step since 1963.

something you might want to consider is why there is such speculation about an early election. If so many knowledgeable people are saying it then perhaps you should consider that you position as espoused above may not be correct. Im not saying you are wrong, but by their speculation, a lot of other people are and we all know a DD is not going to happen with current polls although the beauty of seeing the end of ricky Muir, David L and all of PUP would be a delight.

You're assuming that none of them would be re-elected, despite the quotas for election at a double dissolution being only 7.69%.

It is likely that a double dissolution would see a crossbench that is as large and diverse as the current crossbench; the MPs may be different but the diversity would remain. Xenophon could get TWO running mates into Parliament with a 7.69% quota; he polled 25% at the last election, which would be three DD quotas. The last seat - or even last two seats - in each state would be a lottery.

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You are not entitled to your opinion. You are only entitled to hold opinions that you can defend through sound, reasoned argument.

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greggerypeccary Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 145555 Gender:	Re: Rumours of an early Federal Election grow Reply #61 - Jun 25^th, 2015 at 9:11pm Bobby. wrote on Jun 25^th, 2015 at 8:57pm: This whole thread is nonsense - Abbott has already told Shorten to take a Bex & lie down if he thinks there will be an election soon. OK, that's it then. Abbott has never told a lie before, so I'm completely convinced.
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Bobby.

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Re: Rumours of an early Federal Election grow
Reply #62 - Jun 25^th, 2015 at 9:15pm

greggerypeccary wrote on Jun 25^th, 2015 at 9:11pm:

Bobby. wrote on Jun 25^th, 2015 at 8:57pm:

This whole thread is nonsense -

Abbott has already told Shorten to take a Bex & lie down
if he thinks there will be an election soon.

OK, that's it then.

Abbott has never told a lie before, so I'm completely convinced.

And Abbott is too much of an honorable man to

take advantage of Shorten being muddied by a Royal commission.

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greggerypeccary

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Re: Rumours of an early Federal Election grow
Reply #63 - Jun 25^th, 2015 at 9:17pm

Bobby. wrote on Jun 25^th, 2015 at 9:15pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on Jun 25^th, 2015 at 9:11pm:

Bobby. wrote on Jun 25^th, 2015 at 8:57pm:

This whole thread is nonsense -

Abbott has already told Shorten to take a Bex & lie down
if he thinks there will be an election soon.

OK, that's it then.

Abbott has never told a lie before, so I'm completely convinced.

And Abbott is too much of an honorable man to

take advantage of Shorten being muddied by a Royal commission.

Indeed.

He's a gentleman.

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Bobby.

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Re: Rumours of an early Federal Election grow
Reply #64 - Jun 25^th, 2015 at 9:25pm

greggerypeccary wrote on Jun 25^th, 2015 at 9:17pm:

Bobby. wrote on Jun 25^th, 2015 at 9:15pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on Jun 25^th, 2015 at 9:11pm:

Bobby. wrote on Jun 25^th, 2015 at 8:57pm:

This whole thread is nonsense -

Abbott has already told Shorten to take a Bex & lie down
if he thinks there will be an election soon.

OK, that's it then.

Abbott has never told a lie before, so I'm completely convinced.

And Abbott is too much of an honorable man to

take advantage of Shorten being muddied by a Royal commission.

Indeed.

He's a gentleman.

https://thedailytrash.files.wordpress.com/2014/05/puuting-the-n-back.jpg

And he wouldn't go to an election unless he could control the ABC -

ohh wait - he's sending in the Govt. to ask them hard questions.

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greggerypeccary

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Re: Rumours of an early Federal Election grow
Reply #65 - Jun 25^th, 2015 at 9:31pm

Bobby. wrote on Jun 25^th, 2015 at 9:25pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on Jun 25^th, 2015 at 9:17pm:

Bobby. wrote on Jun 25^th, 2015 at 9:15pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on Jun 25^th, 2015 at 9:11pm:

Bobby. wrote on Jun 25^th, 2015 at 8:57pm:

This whole thread is nonsense -

Abbott has already told Shorten to take a Bex & lie down
if he thinks there will be an election soon.

OK, that's it then.

Abbott has never told a lie before, so I'm completely convinced.

And Abbott is too much of an honorable man to

take advantage of Shorten being muddied by a Royal commission.

Indeed.

He's a gentleman.

https://thedailytrash.files.wordpress.com/2014/05/puuting-the-n-back.jpg

And he wouldn't go to an election unless he could control the ABC -

ohh wait - he's sending in the Govt. to ask them hard questions.

Shut down the ABC, and then call an election.

He's certainly putting that "n" in there.

What a gutless maggot.

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Bobby. Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 112640 Melbourne Gender:	Re: Rumours of an early Federal Election grow Reply #66 - Jun 25^th, 2015 at 9:46pm Dear Greggy, Abbott is a cunning wolf who senses easy prey in Shorten - Abbott takes no prisoners.
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Setanta Gold Member Offline \/ Peace man! Posts: 17027 Northern NSW Gender:	Re: Rumours of an early Federal Election grow Reply #67 - Jun 25^th, 2015 at 9:59pm Bobby. wrote on Jun 25^th, 2015 at 9:46pm: Dear Greggy, Abbott is a cunning wolf who senses easy prey in Shorten - Abbott takes no prisoners. Off with his head!
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Its time

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Re: Rumours of an early Federal Election grow
Reply #68 - Jun 25^th, 2015 at 10:02pm

greggerypeccary wrote on Jun 25^th, 2015 at 9:31pm:

Bobby. wrote on Jun 25^th, 2015 at 9:25pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on Jun 25^th, 2015 at 9:17pm:

Bobby. wrote on Jun 25^th, 2015 at 9:15pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on Jun 25^th, 2015 at 9:11pm:

Bobby. wrote on Jun 25^th, 2015 at 8:57pm:

This whole thread is nonsense -

Abbott has already told Shorten to take a Bex & lie down
if he thinks there will be an election soon.

OK, that's it then.

Abbott has never told a lie before, so I'm completely convinced.

And Abbott is too much of an honorable man to

take advantage of Shorten being muddied by a Royal commission.

Indeed.

He's a gentleman.

https://thedailytrash.files.wordpress.com/2014/05/puuting-the-n-back.jpg

And he wouldn't go to an election unless he could control the ABC -

ohh wait - he's sending in the Govt. to ask them hard questions.

Shut down the ABC, and then call an election.

He's certainly putting that "n" in there.

What a gutless maggot.

Given that it is near on impossible to get somebody to admit they voted Libs face to face it would be a modern day miracle if they still held more than a handful of seats come election time .

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Bobby.

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Re: Rumours of an early Federal Election grow
Reply #69 - Jun 25^th, 2015 at 10:14pm

Setanta wrote on Jun 25^th, 2015 at 9:59pm:

Bobby. wrote on Jun 25^th, 2015 at 9:46pm:

Dear Greggy,
Abbott is a cunning wolf who senses easy prey in Shorten -

Abbott takes no prisoners.

Off with his head!

Shorten is sounding too sanctimonious in parliament -

especially when he carried on about supporting Abbott's new laws on refugees.

Abbott senses a kill.

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Grendel Gold Member Offline OzPolitic Posts: 28080 Gender:	Re: Rumours of an early Federal Election grow Reply #70 - Jun 25^th, 2015 at 10:35pm Shorten is proving everyday that he is that person who doesn't know what the PM said but whatever it was he agrees with her... Seems they wind him up and trot him out to mouth the current tactic no matter how stupid it ends up being... not much good judgement being shown at all in that behavior.
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red baron

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Re: Rumours of an early Federal Election grow
Reply #71 - Jun 26^th, 2015 at 1:16pm

For the life of me I don't understand why the Labor Party doesn't put Anthony Albanese in charge. He has done the yards, he is clever and could easily mix it with Tony Abbott at a National level.

Bill Shorten is way, way out of his depth. It's one thing to be a puppeteer and cause axings of P.M.s and another entirely different animal to be the head of the food chain and the one the buck stops with.

Shorten is dismally short of ability and he is foundering big time.

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red baron Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 10204 Blue Mountains Gender:	Re: Rumours of an early Federal Election grow Reply #72 - Jun 26^th, 2015 at 1:17pm #
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Bobby.

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Re: Rumours of an early Federal Election grow
Reply #73 - Jun 26^th, 2015 at 1:26pm

red baron wrote on Jun 26^th, 2015 at 1:16pm:

For the life of me I don't understand why the Labor Party doesn't put Anthony Albanese in charge. He has done the yards, he is clever and could easily mix it with Tony Abbott at a National level.

Bill Shorten is way, way out of his depth. It's one thing to be a puppeteer and cause axings of P.M.s and another entirely different animal to be the head of the food chain and the one the buck stops with.

Shorten is dismally short of ability and he is foundering big time.

Bill speaks quite well -
as I said

he's too sanctimonious in parliament -

as though he's the only person who has morals.

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Grendel Gold Member Offline OzPolitic Posts: 28080 Gender:	Re: Rumours of an early Federal Election grow Reply #74 - Jun 26^th, 2015 at 2:35pm Morals? Shorten? He's leader now.
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