Australian Politics Forum - Rumours of an early Federal Election grow

polite_gandalf

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Re: Rumours of an early Federal Election grow
Reply #45 - Jun 25^th, 2015 at 6:22pm

Bam wrote on Jun 25^th, 2015 at 5:53pm:

It would be a very brave PM though who would call a DD election while 4 points or more behind in the opinion polls for most of the last year.

Abbott is reportedly quoted as saying he could beat Shorten trailing 52-48 - which is where they are at now.

The trigger for this latest rumour was the call by the PM for liberal MPs to update their profile photos with the PM:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-06-25/coalition-mps-photo-opportunity-could-sign...

Personally, I think the argument that this government cannot afford to pass another budget this term is a strong one...

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polite_gandalf Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 20027 Canberra Gender:	Re: Rumours of an early Federal Election grow Reply #46 - Jun 25^th, 2015 at 6:23pm flip
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longweekend58

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Re: Rumours of an early Federal Election grow
Reply #47 - Jun 25^th, 2015 at 6:38pm

polite_gandalf wrote on Jun 25^th, 2015 at 6:22pm:

Bam wrote on Jun 25^th, 2015 at 5:53pm:

It would be a very brave PM though who would call a DD election while 4 points or more behind in the opinion polls for most of the last year.

Abbott is reportedly quoted as saying he could beat Shorten trailing 52-48 - which is where they are at now.

The trigger for this latest rumour was the call by the PM for liberal MPs to update their profile photos with the PM:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-06-25/coalition-mps-photo-opportunity-could-sign...

Personally, I think the argument that this government cannot afford to pass another budget this term is a strong one...

and you dont think he might have done that just to spook Labor? He is pretty good at that. He might spook them bade enough to have a bloodbath and leadership spill only to elect another unwinnable leader.

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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

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Grendel Gold Member Offline OzPolitic Posts: 28080 Gender:	Re: Rumours of an early Federal Election grow Reply #48 - Jun 25^th, 2015 at 6:40pm Aussie wrote on Jun 25^th, 2015 at 5:47pm: Grendel wrote on Jun 25^th, 2015 at 5:45pm: Didn't they set up the triggers in the first 12 months... then decide it wasn't a good idea after the first budget sunk like the Titanic? How come you don't know? Still failing comprehension I see Aussie... sigh
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Grendel Gold Member Offline OzPolitic Posts: 28080 Gender:	Re: Rumours of an early Federal Election grow Reply #49 - Jun 25^th, 2015 at 6:42pm Karnal wrote on Jun 25^th, 2015 at 6:18pm: Grendel wrote on Jun 25^th, 2015 at 5:31pm: Yes, I for one do not think Bill is unelectable. Yes, Grendel, but you’re unbiased. YES karnal... I am unbiased. Comprehension problem or just plain TROLL stupidity, on your behalf, this time?
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Bam

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Re: Rumours of an early Federal Election grow
Reply #50 - Jun 25^th, 2015 at 7:37pm

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 25^th, 2015 at 6:11pm:

Abbott will not go for an election this early.

I agree, the poor opinion polling for the Coalition would stay Abbott's hand.

Quote:

voters hate early elections and punish hem for it (just ask bob hawke in 1984).

The 1984 election was not as early as people seem to think. The previous election was a double dissolution election. This means the Senators' terms were backdated to July 1, 1982 and the next election had to be held by July 1, 1985 to keep the House and Senate elections in step.

Every double dissolution election is always followed by another early Senate election. It is a consequence of section 13 of the Constitution. It is customary for the House to go to the polls at the same time. An early election after a double dissolution is therefore standard operating procedure.

Hawke could have gone as late as June, 1985, but no later.
Quote:

Abbott doesnt have that many votes to play with so he wont go early unless the polls take a massive swing to his side and that appear unlikely. I would tip an election early next year eg March and no earlier. it is only 6 months early so no real biggie from the voters. An early election at this time would probably lose him too many votes to win.

You're wrong here. Any election before August, 2015 would have to be a House-only election because the writs for a half-Senate election cannot be issued more than 12 months before the expiration of the Senate terms. We haven't had an early election that put the House and Senate out of step since 1963.

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You are not entitled to your opinion. You are only entitled to hold opinions that you can defend through sound, reasoned argument.

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Bam

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Re: Rumours of an early Federal Election grow
Reply #51 - Jun 25^th, 2015 at 7:44pm

polite_gandalf wrote on Jun 25^th, 2015 at 6:22pm:

Bam wrote on Jun 25^th, 2015 at 5:53pm:

It would be a very brave PM though who would call a DD election while 4 points or more behind in the opinion polls for most of the last year.

Abbott is reportedly quoted as saying he could beat Shorten trailing 52-48 - which is where they are at now.

He would have to run a very good campaign. He is also likely to lose, if the settled opinion polling is indicative of voters having made up their minds.

Abbott's hardly likely to talk down his chances publicly.

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You are not entitled to your opinion. You are only entitled to hold opinions that you can defend through sound, reasoned argument.

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Its time Gold Member Offline Boot libs out Posts: 25639 Gender:	Re: Rumours of an early Federal Election grow Reply #52 - Jun 25^th, 2015 at 7:56pm greggerypeccary wrote on Jun 25^th, 2015 at 5:42pm: Grendel wrote on Jun 25^th, 2015 at 5:31pm: Yes, I for one do not think Bill is unelectable. Especially not now that Abbott has set the bar. http://extremesportsx.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/Limbo-Skating-3.jpg 10/10
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longweekend58

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Re: Rumours of an early Federal Election grow
Reply #53 - Jun 25^th, 2015 at 7:57pm

Bam wrote on Jun 25^th, 2015 at 7:37pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 25^th, 2015 at 6:11pm:

Abbott will not go for an election this early.

I agree, the poor opinion polling for the Coalition would stay Abbott's hand.

Quote:

voters hate early elections and punish hem for it (just ask bob hawke in 1984).

The 1984 election was not as early as people seem to think. The previous election was a double dissolution election. This means the Senators' terms were backdated to July 1, 1982 and the next election had to be held by July 1, 1985 to keep the House and Senate elections in step.

Every double dissolution election is always followed by another early Senate election. It is a consequence of section 13 of the Constitution. It is customary for the House to go to the polls at the same time. An early election after a double dissolution is therefore standard operating procedure.

Hawke could have gone as late as June, 1985, but no later.
Quote:

Abbott doesnt have that many votes to play with so he wont go early unless the polls take a massive swing to his side and that appear unlikely. I would tip an election early next year eg March and no earlier. it is only 6 months early so no real biggie from the voters. An early election at this time would probably lose him too many votes to win.

You're wrong here. Any election before August, 2015 would have to be a House-only election because the writs for a half-Senate election cannot be issued more than 12 months before the expiration of the Senate terms. We haven't had an early election that put the House and Senate out of step since 1963.

something you might want to consider is why there is such speculation about an early election. If so many knowledgeable people are saying it then perhaps you should consider that you position as espoused above may not be correct. Im not saying you are wrong, but by their speculation, a lot of other people are and we all know a DD is not going to happen with current polls although the beauty of seeing the end of ricky Muir, David L and all of PUP would be a delight.

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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

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longweekend58

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Re: Rumours of an early Federal Election grow
Reply #54 - Jun 25^th, 2015 at 8:10pm

Bam wrote on Jun 25^th, 2015 at 7:44pm:

polite_gandalf wrote on Jun 25^th, 2015 at 6:22pm:

Bam wrote on Jun 25^th, 2015 at 5:53pm:

It would be a very brave PM though who would call a DD election while 4 points or more behind in the opinion polls for most of the last year.

Abbott is reportedly quoted as saying he could beat Shorten trailing 52-48 - which is where they are at now.

He would have to run a very good campaign. He is also likely to lose, if the settled opinion polling is indicative of voters having made up their minds.

Abbott's hardly likely to talk down his chances publicly.

it is very rare for polling to be 'settled' this far out from an election. If that were the case, labor would have lost 60/40 nd abbott would have had a senate majority. it is still only half way thru his term. Way to early to be calling for 'settled polling' especially when only 4 months ago it was 43/57 and is now 49/51.

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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

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polite_gandalf

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Re: Rumours of an early Federal Election grow
Reply #55 - Jun 25^th, 2015 at 8:19pm

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 25^th, 2015 at 6:38pm:

polite_gandalf wrote on Jun 25^th, 2015 at 6:22pm:

Bam wrote on Jun 25^th, 2015 at 5:53pm:

It would be a very brave PM though who would call a DD election while 4 points or more behind in the opinion polls for most of the last year.

Abbott is reportedly quoted as saying he could beat Shorten trailing 52-48 - which is where they are at now.

The trigger for this latest rumour was the call by the PM for liberal MPs to update their profile photos with the PM:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-06-25/coalition-mps-photo-opportunity-could-sign...

Personally, I think the argument that this government cannot afford to pass another budget this term is a strong one...

and you dont think he might have done that just to spook Labor? He is pretty good at that. He might spook them bade enough to have a bloodbath and leadership spill only to elect another unwinnable leader.

And why on earth would labor be "spooked" by the prospect of an early election - they are pining for an early election - Shorten put all the branches on notice to prepare for a snap poll months ago.

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A resident Islam critic who claims to represent western values said:
Quote:

Outlawing the enemy's uniform - hijab, islamic beard - is not depriving one's own people of their freedoms.

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longweekend58

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Re: Rumours of an early Federal Election grow
Reply #56 - Jun 25^th, 2015 at 8:24pm

polite_gandalf wrote on Jun 25^th, 2015 at 8:19pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 25^th, 2015 at 6:38pm:

polite_gandalf wrote on Jun 25^th, 2015 at 6:22pm:

Bam wrote on Jun 25^th, 2015 at 5:53pm:

It would be a very brave PM though who would call a DD election while 4 points or more behind in the opinion polls for most of the last year.

Abbott is reportedly quoted as saying he could beat Shorten trailing 52-48 - which is where they are at now.

The trigger for this latest rumour was the call by the PM for liberal MPs to update their profile photos with the PM:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-06-25/coalition-mps-photo-opportunity-could-sign...

Personally, I think the argument that this government cannot afford to pass another budget this term is a strong one...

and you dont think he might have done that just to spook Labor? He is pretty good at that. He might spook them bade enough to have a bloodbath and leadership spill only to elect another unwinnable leader.

And why on earth would labor be "spooked" by the prospect of an early election - they are pining for an early election - Shorten put all the branches on notice to prepare for a snap poll months ago.

they certianly arent 'pining' now. Their leader is about as popular as a turd and their poll lead has evaporated. they would lose an election now by a solid majority.

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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

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greggerypeccary Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 145914 Gender:	Re: Rumours of an early Federal Election grow Reply #57 - Jun 25^th, 2015 at 8:37pm longweekend58 wrote on Jun 25^th, 2015 at 8:24pm: Their leader is about as popular as a turd ... They both are. Perhaps the AEC should redesign their polling booths.
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Bobby. Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 112855 Melbourne Gender:	Re: Rumours of an early Federal Election grow Reply #58 - Jun 25^th, 2015 at 8:57pm This whole thread is nonsense - Abbott has already told Shorten to take a Bex & lie down if he thinks there will be an election soon.
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Dnarever Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 60266 Here Gender:	Re: Rumours of an early Federal Election grow Reply #59 - Jun 25^th, 2015 at 9:09pm Abbott and LW argued before the Last election that Abbott would go straight to a DD election and wipe the floor with labor a second time, Since the election that have done nothing but to run away from that commitment. Early election - Funny Joke.
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