Australian Politics Forum - Rumours of an early Federal Election grow

greggerypeccary Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 145914 Gender:	Re: Rumours of an early Federal Election grow Reply #30 - Jun 25^th, 2015 at 3:19pm Aussie wrote on Jun 25^th, 2015 at 2:51pm: red baron wrote on Jun 25^th, 2015 at 10:12am: Rumours of an early Federal Election continue to grow ... I've not heard any. Just red and his buddies gossiping at the Hatters Cafe in Katoomba.
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Redmond Neck Gold Member Offline OzPolitic Posts: 22256 ACT Gender:	Re: Rumours of an early Federal Election grow Reply #31 - Jun 25^th, 2015 at 3:32pm There may be something in this Abbotts mobs sending out letters based on Terrorism Emergency looking for donations All Coalition MP's had their photos updated today at Credlins request Shorten in the RC may present an opportunity He is only two points behind Shorten in the polls.
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Grendel

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Re: Rumours of an early Federal Election grow
Reply #32 - Jun 25^th, 2015 at 3:33pm

polite_gandalf wrote on Jun 25^th, 2015 at 10:56am:

Cods, the killing season demonstrated internal party disunity. But the fact is good government by and large continued - despite the fights happening internally.

This mob on the other hand has just been bad at governing. Policy on the run, no concept of good long term economic management, complete inability to negotiate with the senate. There efforts to distract from their economic incompetence by resorting to the "national security" scare campaign - is so transparent that I don't think even the public is being fooled by it any more (polls stubbornly refusing to turn for the coalition - despite a lackluster opposition leader).

Really Gandy... good government?
Cheesy

Need I list all the debacles? Roll Eyes

The 2 worst governments I can recall... this one was heading that way too, but it seems to have lifted its game a bit.
Still a year plus to go and if they keep improving, they will more than likely be returned.

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Bam

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Re: Rumours of an early Federal Election grow
Reply #33 - Jun 25^th, 2015 at 5:28pm

Karnal wrote on Jun 25^th, 2015 at 12:53pm:

rhino wrote on Jun 25^th, 2015 at 10:59am:

cods wrote on Jun 25^th, 2015 at 10:25am:

rhino wrote on Jun 25^th, 2015 at 10:21am:

another term for Abbott with an increased majority.

absolutely!!!!!!!! can you imagine this lot omg the last win was bad enough they are still sulking...

Dont get me wrong, im not supporting Abbott, Im just calling it. Labor cannot win with Shorten at the helm, hes toast.

Agreed. I don’t care what the polls are, the electorate will not support Shorten as PM.

The pundits used to say the same thing about Abbott.

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You are not entitled to your opinion. You are only entitled to hold opinions that you can defend through sound, reasoned argument.

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Grendel Gold Member Offline OzPolitic Posts: 28080 Gender:	Re: Rumours of an early Federal Election grow Reply #34 - Jun 25^th, 2015 at 5:31pm Yes, I for one do not think Bill is unelectable.
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philperth2010 Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21097 Perth Gender:	Re: Rumours of an early Federal Election grow Reply #35 - Jun 25^th, 2015 at 5:38pm Once Abbott starts making election promises the public will remember the broken promises and back flips this Prime Minister has made since being elected....Who would ever believe anything Abbott says ever again???
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Grendel Gold Member Offline OzPolitic Posts: 28080 Gender:	Re: Rumours of an early Federal Election grow Reply #36 - Jun 25^th, 2015 at 5:40pm Do you honestly think Bill has more credibility in that area Phil
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greggerypeccary Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 145914 Gender:	Re: Rumours of an early Federal Election grow Reply #37 - Jun 25^th, 2015 at 5:42pm Grendel wrote on Jun 25^th, 2015 at 5:31pm: Yes, I for one do not think Bill is unelectable. Especially not now that Abbott has set the bar.
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Bam

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Re: Rumours of an early Federal Election grow
Reply #38 - Jun 25^th, 2015 at 5:42pm

Grendel wrote on Jun 25^th, 2015 at 3:33pm:

polite_gandalf wrote on Jun 25^th, 2015 at 10:56am:

Cods, the killing season demonstrated internal party disunity. But the fact is good government by and large continued - despite the fights happening internally.

This mob on the other hand has just been bad at governing. Policy on the run, no concept of good long term economic management, complete inability to negotiate with the senate. There efforts to distract from their economic incompetence by resorting to the "national security" scare campaign - is so transparent that I don't think even the public is being fooled by it any more (polls stubbornly refusing to turn for the coalition - despite a lackluster opposition leader).

Really Gandy... good government?
Cheesy

Need I list all the debacles? Roll Eyes

The 2 worst governments I can recall... this one was heading that way too, but it seems to have lifted its game a bit.
Still a year plus to go and if they keep improving, they will more than likely be returned.

The opinion polls are still bad news for the government. Typical recent poll figures are Coalition 48-ALP 52. Bob Hawke won in 1983 with a 2PP of 53%. The government may try their chances, but it would be a huge risk on current opinion polling.

On the prospects of an early election, the current possibilities are a House-only election or a double dissolution.

(1) House only election. I consider this unlikely because early elections that put the House out of step with the Senate are very rare. The last time there was an early House-only election was in 1963, when PM Menzies went to the poll early to obtain a more workable majority than the 2-seat majority he got in the 1961 election.

(2) Double dissolution. The PM has difficulty with the Senate, partly due to the inability to negotiate, and partly due to the diversity of the crossbench. A double dissolution election could resolve a perceived impasse, but it would be likely to end up with an even more diverse Senate due to the lower quotas for elections.

What cannot happen right now is a House and half-Senate election (the usual kind of election). The writs for a half Senate election cannot be issued more than 12 months before the expiration of the terms of the current Senators. The earliest a half-Senate election can be held in accordance with the Constitution is early August, 2016.

If an early election is being considered, IMO it's going to be a double dissolution election. What are the triggers for a DD election?

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Grendel Gold Member Offline OzPolitic Posts: 28080 Gender:	Re: Rumours of an early Federal Election grow Reply #39 - Jun 25^th, 2015 at 5:45pm Didn't they set up the triggers in the first 12 months... then decide it wasn't a good idea after the first budget sunk like the Titanic?
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Aussie Gold Member Offline OzPolitic Posts: 39457 Gender:	Re: Rumours of an early Federal Election grow Reply #40 - Jun 25^th, 2015 at 5:47pm Grendel wrote on Jun 25^th, 2015 at 5:45pm: Didn't they set up the triggers in the first 12 months... then decide it wasn't a good idea after the first budget sunk like the Titanic? How come you don't know?
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Bam

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Re: Rumours of an early Federal Election grow
Reply #41 - Jun 25^th, 2015 at 5:53pm

Grendel wrote on Jun 25^th, 2015 at 5:45pm:

Didn't they set up the triggers in the first 12 months... then decide it wasn't a good idea after the first budget sunk like the Titanic?

The failed measures from the 2014 Budget are probably the triggers that they would use. It would be a very brave PM though who would call a DD election while 4 points or more behind in the opinion polls for most of the last year.

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You are not entitled to your opinion. You are only entitled to hold opinions that you can defend through sound, reasoned argument.

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philperth2010

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Re: Rumours of an early Federal Election grow
Reply #42 - Jun 25^th, 2015 at 5:54pm

Grendel wrote on Jun 25^th, 2015 at 5:45pm:

Didn't they set up the triggers in the first 12 months... then decide it wasn't a good idea after the first budget sunk like the Titanic?

Yes Grendel but most pundits believe the Coalition will not want to deliver a third budget with a deteriorating economic outlook....The problem with the budget is mostly out of the Governments control such as commodity prices and reduced growth from our trading partners....Eventually Abbott will have to take responsibility for the decisions he has made!!!

Roll Eyes

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If knowledge can create problems, it is not through ignorance that we can solve them.
Isaac Asimov (1920 - 1992)

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longweekend58

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Re: Rumours of an early Federal Election grow
Reply #43 - Jun 25^th, 2015 at 6:11pm

Abbott will not go for an election this early. voters hate early elections and punish hem for it (just ask bob hawke in 1984). Abbott doesnt have that many votes to play with so he wont go early unless the polls take a massive swing to his side and that appear unlikely. I would tip an election early next year eg March and no earlier. it is only 6 months early so no real biggie from the voters. An early election at this time would probably lose him too many votes to win.

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Karnal Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 98944	Re: Rumours of an early Federal Election grow Reply #44 - Jun 25^th, 2015 at 6:18pm Grendel wrote on Jun 25^th, 2015 at 5:31pm: Yes, I for one do not think Bill is unelectable. Yes, Grendel, but you’re unbiased.
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