Australian Politics Forum - "..a change in the history of the world,”

John_Taverner Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 2217 Gender:	Re: "..a change in the history of the world,” Reply #45 - Jun 7^th, 2015 at 8:17pm During which period of time (years) do the most significant corrections apply? and Do the corrections for non-climatic effects increase or reduce the trend? If you are simply parroting what's on WUWT, then you probably won't know.
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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21377 Gender:	Re: "..a change in the history of the world,” Reply #46 - Jun 7^th, 2015 at 8:21pm You still haven't answered the Basic question. It is right there in Black and white, significance 0.10. Do you find it significant?
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John_Taverner Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 2217 Gender:	Re: "..a change in the history of the world,” Reply #47 - Jun 7^th, 2015 at 8:43pm lee wrote on Jun 7^th, 2015 at 8:21pm: You still haven't answered the Basic question. It is right there in Black and white, significance 0.10. Do you find it significant? In what context?
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John_Taverner

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Re: "..a change in the history of the world,”
Reply #48 - Jun 7^th, 2015 at 8:54pm

lee wrote on Jun 7^th, 2015 at 2:45pm:

'Global temperature anomaly estimates are a product, not a measurement

The first thing to remember is that an estimate of how much warmer one year is than another in the global mean is just that, an estimate. '

Gavin Schmidt- http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2015/06/noaa-temperature-record-up...

Good link. I hadn't read that before. There are actually some clues in that link if you read it in full. That is, if you prefer to read what people write about the paper to reading the paper itself.
Quote:

The fun for the blog-watchers is what happened next. What could one do to get the story all wrong? First, you could incorrectly assume that scientists working on this must somehow be unaware of the problems (that is belied by the frequent mention of post WWII issues in workshops and papers since at least 2005, but never mind). Next, you could conflate the ‘buckets’ used in recent decades (as seen in the graphs in Kent et al 2007‘s discussion of the ICOADS meta-data) with the buckets in the pre-war period (see photo above) and exaggerate how prevalent they were. If you do make those mistakes however, you can extrapolate to get some rather dramatic (and erroneous) conclusions. - See more at: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2008/06/of-buckets-and-blogs/#sthash.LoZUGNYH.dpuf

That's why I said not to trust denialist blogs. Read the paper itself.

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« Last Edit: Jun 7^th, 2015 at 9:02pm by John_Taverner »

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Ajax

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Re: "..a change in the history of the world,”
Reply #49 - Jun 8^th, 2015 at 10:15am

Karl et al.

He makes some very big assumptions and predications, in other words a strawman argument.

Quote:

A First Look at ‘Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus’ by Karl et al., Science 4 June 2015

Guest Blogger / 3 days ago June 4, 2015

Guest essay by Ross McKitrick University of Guelph

June 4, 2015

Background

The idea that there has been a hiatus in global warming since the late 1990s comes from examination of several different data sets:

Sources: all data accessed through http://www.climate4you.com/GlobalTemperatures.htm except last one, taken from http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v5/n3/full/nclimate2513.html.

The IPCC’s recent report identified this hiatus and commented as follows (Working Group I, Chapter 9, Box 9.2):

The observed global-mean surface temperature (GMST) has shown a much smaller increasing linear trend over the past 15 years than over the past 30 to 60 years… Depending on the observational data set, the GMST trend over 1998–2012 is estimated to be around one-third to one-half of the trend over 1951–2012.

K15 New Estimates

Karl et al. (2015, which I’ll call K15) have struck a very different note, saying that the post-1998 trend is much higher than previously thought, and is in fact about the same as that of the post-1951 interval. Their trend estimate revisions are as follows:

So what changed in the SST records? Bear in mind that there are very few records of air temperatures over the oceans, especially prior to 1950. So to get long term climate estimates, scientists use SST (i.e. water temperature) data, which have been collected since the 1800s by ships. The long term SST records were never collected for climate analysis and they are notoriously difficult to work with. Many judgments need to be made to yield a final record, and as the K15article shows, changes in some of those assumptions yield major changes in the final results.

Read the rest here
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/06/04/a-first-look-at-possible-artifacts-of-data...

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1. There has never been a more serious assault on our standard of living than Anthropogenic Global Warming..Ajax
2. "One hour of freedom is worth more than 40 years of slavery & prison" Regas Feraeos

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John_Taverner Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 2217 Gender:	Re: "..a change in the history of the world,” Reply #50 - Jun 8^th, 2015 at 10:35am Ajax wrote on Jun 8^th, 2015 at 10:15am: Karl et al. He makes some very big assumptions and predications, in other words a strawman argument. He obviously didn't read or understand the paper either.
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Ajax

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Re: "..a change in the history of the world,”
Reply #51 - Jun 8^th, 2015 at 10:51am

John_Taverner wrote on Jun 8^th, 2015 at 10:35am:

Ajax wrote on Jun 8^th, 2015 at 10:15am:

Karl et al.

He makes some very big assumptions and predications, in other words a strawman argument.

He obviously didn't read or understand the paper either.

I've read enough about it.......!!!!!

Don't want to waste anymore time.

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1. There has never been a more serious assault on our standard of living than Anthropogenic Global Warming..Ajax
2. "One hour of freedom is worth more than 40 years of slavery & prison" Regas Feraeos

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John_Taverner

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Re: "..a change in the history of the world,”
Reply #52 - Jun 8^th, 2015 at 10:56am

Ajax wrote on Jun 8^th, 2015 at 10:51am:

John_Taverner wrote on Jun 8^th, 2015 at 10:35am:

Ajax wrote on Jun 8^th, 2015 at 10:15am:

Karl et al.

He makes some very big assumptions and predications, in other words a strawman argument.

He obviously didn't read or understand the paper either.

I've read enough about it.......!!!!!

Don't want to waste anymore time.

No, you wouldn't want to read the actual paper. It might make your brain hurt.

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Ajax

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Re: "..a change in the history of the world,”
Reply #53 - Jun 8^th, 2015 at 11:05am

John_Taverner wrote on Jun 8^th, 2015 at 10:56am:

Ajax wrote on Jun 8^th, 2015 at 10:51am:

John_Taverner wrote on Jun 8^th, 2015 at 10:35am:

Ajax wrote on Jun 8^th, 2015 at 10:15am:

Karl et al.

He makes some very big assumptions and predications, in other words a strawman argument.

He obviously didn't read or understand the paper either.

I've read enough about it.......!!!!!

Don't want to waste anymore time.

No, you wouldn't want to read the actual paper. It might make your brain hurt.

No use reading one mans bullshit.

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1. There has never been a more serious assault on our standard of living than Anthropogenic Global Warming..Ajax
2. "One hour of freedom is worth more than 40 years of slavery & prison" Regas Feraeos

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John_Taverner Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 2217 Gender:	Re: "..a change in the history of the world,” Reply #54 - Jun 8^th, 2015 at 11:09am Do you also believe that smoking is good for your health?
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Ajax Gold Member Offline CO2 has never controlled temperature on Earth Posts: 11070 Australia Gender:	Re: "..a change in the history of the world,” Reply #55 - Jun 8^th, 2015 at 11:11am John_Taverner wrote on Jun 8^th, 2015 at 11:09am: Do you also believe that smoking is good for your health? Haha....you getting funny Johno.......!!!!!!.....
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BatteriesNotIncluded

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Re: "..a change in the history of the world,”
Reply #56 - Jun 8^th, 2015 at 11:41am

Ajax wrote on Jun 8^th, 2015 at 11:05am:

John_Taverner wrote on Jun 8^th, 2015 at 10:56am:

Ajax wrote on Jun 8^th, 2015 at 10:51am:

John_Taverner wrote on Jun 8^th, 2015 at 10:35am:

Ajax wrote on Jun 8^th, 2015 at 10:15am:

Karl et al.

He makes some very big assumptions and predications, in other words a strawman argument.

He obviously didn't read or understand the paper either.

I've read enough about it.......!!!!!

Don't want to waste anymore time.

No, you wouldn't want to read the actual paper. It might make your brain hurt.

No use reading one mans bullshit.

So you believe in Bjorn Lomborgs assesment that it is safe for fossil fuels to warm our kids earth by 3 degrees instead of 2?

Cheesy

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*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is. It wouldn't be there without the tax payer. Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know.... (swaggy) *

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lee

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Re: "..a change in the history of the world,”
Reply #57 - Jun 8^th, 2015 at 11:46am

' In essence, the bias correction involved calculating the average difference between collocated buoy and ship SSTs. The average difference globally was −0.12°C, a correction which is applied to the buoy SSTs at every grid cell in ERSST version 4.'

But they don't mention -

'That quote refers to a paper by Kennedy et al. (2011 Table 5)5 which reports a mean bias of +0.12oC. However, Kennedy et al. also note that the estimate is very uncertain: it is 0.12 ±1.7oC! Also, the bias varies by region. This is a key difference between the method of
K15 and that of others. K15 added 0.12oC to all buoy data, but the Hadley group and the Hirahari group use region - specific adjustments.

4 Hirahara, S. et al. Centennial-Scale Sea Surface Temperature Analysis and Its Uncertainty, Journal of Climate Vol 27 DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00837.1'

'Second, there was a large change in ship observations (i.e., from buckets to engine intake thermometers) that peaked immediately prior to World War II. The previous version of ERSST assumed that no ship corrections were necessary after this time, but recently improved metadata (18) reveal that some ships continued to take bucket observations even up to the present day.'

What corrections did they make for different measuring depths.

Different ships, different depths.

Laden or unladen?

Sensors mounted forward or midships or aft? Water turbulence gives different temperatures.

Having adjusted the temperatures they then give more to weight to the modern temperatures. Give it a free kick.

Since the days of sail, ships rarely sail the Roaring Forties, Furious Fifties, so that the bias is toward the equator.

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BatteriesNotIncluded

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Re: "..a change in the history of the world,”
Reply #58 - Jun 8^th, 2015 at 11:48am

lee wrote on Jun 8^th, 2015 at 11:46am:

' In essence, the bias correction involved calculating the average difference between collocated buoy and ship SSTs. The average difference globally was −0.12°C, a correction which is applied to the buoy SSTs at every grid cell in ERSST version 4.'

But they don't mention

'That quote refers to a paper by Kennedy et al. (2011 Table 5)5 which reports a mean bias of +0.12oC. However, Kennedy et al. also note that the estimate is very uncertain: it is 0.12 ±1.7oC! Also, the bias varies by region. This is a key difference between the method of
K15 and that of others. K15 added 0.12oC to all buoy data, but the Hadley group and the Hirahari group use region - specific adjustments.

4 Hirahara, S. et al. Centennial-Scale Sea Surface Temperature Analysis and Its Uncertainty, Journal of Climate Vol 27 DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00837.1'

'Second, there was a large change in ship observations (i.e., from buckets to engine intake thermometers) that peaked immediately prior to World War II. The previous version of ERSST assumed that no ship corrections were necessary after this time, but recently improved metadata (18) reveal that some ships continued to take bucket observations even up to the present day.'

What corrections did they make for different measuring depths.

Different ships, different depths.

Laden or unladen?

Sensors mounted forward or midships or aft? Water turbulence gives different temperatures.

Having adjusted the temperatures they then give more to weight to the modern temperatures. Give it a free kick.

here comes lee to stop Ajax having to answer my question Cheesy

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*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is. It wouldn't be there without the tax payer. Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know.... (swaggy) *

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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21377 Gender:	Re: "..a change in the history of the world,” Reply #59 - Jun 8^th, 2015 at 11:55am Sorry forgot the link- http://www.rossmckitrick.com/uploads/4/8/0/8/4808045/mckitrick_comments_on_karl2...
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