Australian Politics Forum - "..a change in the history of the world,”

lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21378 Gender:	Re: "..a change in the history of the world,” Reply #30 - Jun 6^th, 2015 at 9:02pm They tell me it's fine (Wiki). William Connolley, and friends control the AGW narrative there. So JT refuses to discuss the methodology of the paper, with its pseudo accuracy and metrics. Just what you expect. He merely wants to confirm his biases.
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BatteriesNotIncluded

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MediocrityNET: because
people died for this!

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Re: "..a change in the history of the world,”
Reply #31 - Jun 6^th, 2015 at 9:07pm

lee wrote on Jun 6^th, 2015 at 9:02pm:

They tell me it's fine (Wiki). William Connolley, and friends control the AGW narrative there.

So JT refuses to discuss the methodology of the paper, with its pseudo accuracy and metrics. Just what you expect.

He merely wants to confirm his biases.

oh noes: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/10/13/wikipedia-turbo-revisionism-by-william-con...

FOLLOW THE MONEY Roll Eyes

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*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is. It wouldn't be there without the tax payer. Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know.... (swaggy) *

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lee

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Re: "..a change in the history of the world,”
Reply #32 - Jun 7^th, 2015 at 12:36pm

For those who didn't like the wiki link.

Something more suited perhaps-

'The alternative hypothesis is the one you would believe if the null hypothesis is concluded to be untrue. The evidence in the trial is your data and the statistics that go along with it. All hypothesis tests ultimately use a p-value to weigh the strength of the evidence (what the data are telling you about the population). The p-value is a number between 0 and 1 and interpreted in the following way:

A small p-value (typically ≤ 0.05) indicates strong evidence against the null hypothesis, so you reject the null hypothesis.

A large p-value (> 0.05) indicates weak evidence against the null hypothesis, so you fail to reject the null hypothesis.

p-values very close to the cutoff (0.05) are considered to be marginal (could go either way). Always report the p-value so your readers can draw their own conclusions.'

http://www.dummies.com/how-to/content/what-a-pvalue-tells-you-about-statistical-...

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John_Taverner

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Re: "..a change in the history of the world,”
Reply #33 - Jun 7^th, 2015 at 1:09pm

lee wrote on Jun 6^th, 2015 at 9:02pm:

They tell me it's fine (Wiki). William Connolley, and friends control the AGW narrative there.

So JT refuses to discuss the methodology of the paper, with its pseudo accuracy and metrics. Just what you expect.

He merely wants to confirm his biases.

For the last time: I am perfectly happy to discuss the paper with anybody who has bothered to read it.

Clearly, all you have read is Chinese whispers and pulp fiction at WUWT. Don't waste my time until you have bothered to read the paper.

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Ajax

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Re: "..a change in the history of the world,”
Reply #34 - Jun 7^th, 2015 at 2:35pm

John_Taverner wrote on Jun 7^th, 2015 at 1:09pm:

lee wrote on Jun 6^th, 2015 at 9:02pm:

They tell me it's fine (Wiki). William Connolley, and friends control the AGW narrative there.

So JT refuses to discuss the methodology of the paper, with its pseudo accuracy and metrics. Just what you expect.

He merely wants to confirm his biases.

For the last time: I am perfectly happy to discuss the paper with anybody who has bothered to read it.

Clearly, all you have read is Chinese whispers and pulp fiction at WUWT. Don't waste my time until you have bothered to read the paper.

What paper are we talking about Johno.....????

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1. There has never been a more serious assault on our standard of living than Anthropogenic Global Warming..Ajax
2. "One hour of freedom is worth more than 40 years of slavery & prison" Regas Feraeos

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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21378 Gender:	Re: "..a change in the history of the world,” Reply #35 - Jun 7^th, 2015 at 2:38pm Remember that the paper is the sum of its parts. So tell me what the 'p' value tells us.
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lee

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Re: "..a change in the history of the world,”
Reply #36 - Jun 7^th, 2015 at 2:45pm

'Global temperature anomaly estimates are a product, not a measurement

The first thing to remember is that an estimate of how much warmer one year is than another in the global mean is just that, an estimate. '

Gavin Schmidt- http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2015/06/noaa-temperature-record-up...

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lee

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Re: "..a change in the history of the world,”
Reply #37 - Jun 7^th, 2015 at 3:16pm

'Prof Tim Osborn, Professor of Climate Science at the University of East Anglia, said he would caution against dismissing the slowdown in surface warming on the basis of this study, nor to downplay the role of natural decadal variability for short-term trends in climate.

“There are other datasets that still support a slowdown over some recent period of time, and there are intriguing geographical patterns such as cooling in large parts of the Pacific Ocean that were used to support explanations for the warming slowdown,” Professor Osborn said.'

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/climate/global-warming-didnt-st...

CRU East Anglia

The IPCC's 'hiatus'.

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John_Taverner

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Re: "..a change in the history of the world,”
Reply #38 - Jun 7^th, 2015 at 3:45pm

lee wrote on Jun 7^th, 2015 at 3:16pm:

'Prof Tim Osborn, Professor of Climate Science at the University of East Anglia, said he would caution against dismissing the slowdown in surface warming on the basis of this study, nor to downplay the role of natural decadal variability for short-term trends in climate.

“There are other datasets that still support a slowdown over some recent period of time, and there are intriguing geographical patterns such as cooling in large parts of the Pacific Ocean that were used to support explanations for the warming slowdown,” Professor Osborn said.'

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/climate/global-warming-didnt-st...

CRU East Anglia

http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/documents/421974/487107/gtc_feb2015.gif

The IPCC's 'hiatus'.

Professor Tim Osborne is quite correct. We should have an open mind. Science doesn't work on the basis of single studies. Time will tell as to how well accepted this work will become. A lot will depend on other studies to check this work.

Having an open mind is nothing like criticising a work on the basis of second hand blog opinions.

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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21378 Gender:	Re: "..a change in the history of the world,” Reply #39 - Jun 7^th, 2015 at 3:54pm John_Taverner wrote on Jun 7^th, 2015 at 3:45pm: Having an open mind is nothing like criticising a work on the basis of second hand blog opinions. Says John, who only wants to study a part of Karl et al. Closed mind.
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John_Taverner Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 2217 Gender:	Re: "..a change in the history of the world,” Reply #40 - Jun 7^th, 2015 at 3:59pm Ajax wrote on Jun 7^th, 2015 at 2:35pm: [ What paper are we talking about Johno.....???? Try to keep up.
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John_Taverner

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Re: "..a change in the history of the world,”
Reply #41 - Jun 7^th, 2015 at 4:01pm

lee wrote on Jun 7^th, 2015 at 3:54pm:

John_Taverner wrote on Jun 7^th, 2015 at 3:45pm:

Having an open mind is nothing like criticising a work on the basis of second hand blog opinions.

Says John, who only wants to study a part of Karl et al. Closed mind.

Knock knock. Is Lee there?

I have read the paper in its entirety. You have not. If you had, then you'd have be able to answer the questions.

Who has the closed mind?

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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21378 Gender:	Re: "..a change in the history of the world,” Reply #42 - Jun 7^th, 2015 at 6:08pm You have said that you have read the paper "in its entirety". What is your view of the laughable 0.10 significance?
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John_Taverner Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 2217 Gender:	Re: "..a change in the history of the world,” Reply #43 - Jun 7^th, 2015 at 6:37pm lee wrote on Jun 7^th, 2015 at 6:08pm: You have said that you have read the paper "in its entirety". What is your view of the laughable 0.10 significance? Once more, I'm not prepared to discuss your parroting of WUWT.
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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21378 Gender:	Re: "..a change in the history of the world,” Reply #44 - Jun 7^th, 2015 at 7:29pm I'm merely "parroting" the paper. It is in their methodology. I've showed you the statistical significance, but you can't/won't acknowledge any shortfalls in the paper. Talk about being blind to imperfections.
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