Australian Politics Forum - "..a change in the history of the world,”

lee

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Re: "..a change in the history of the world,”
Reply #15 - Jun 5^th, 2015 at 9:37pm

'To make the buoy data equivalent to ship data on average
requires a straightforward addition of 0.12°C to each buoy observation.'

'In addition, because buoy data were determined to have less noise than ship data (greater precision)'

'Boldface indicates trends that are significant at the 0.10 significance level.'

http://www.sciencemag.org/content/suppl/2015/06/03/science.aaa5632.DC1/Karl-SM.p...

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John_Taverner Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 2217 Gender:	Re: "..a change in the history of the world,” Reply #16 - Jun 6^th, 2015 at 8:42am So now you're looking at the supplementary information. Still no luck with the questions I asked? OK, I'll help you out with one of them. The major adjustment was for the period 1880-1940. This amounted to around 0.12 degrees C. So that would be A. Are you starting to "get it" ?
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lee Gold Member Online Australian Politics Posts: 21377 Gender:	Re: "..a change in the history of the world,” Reply #17 - Jun 6^th, 2015 at 11:45am Yes, because that tells us the method used. So have those who criticised the paper reviewed it? It would seem the answer is, yes. They took (Ugly) noisy data from the ships, spliced it to (pretty) accurate data from the buoys and gave birth to a pretty ugly bastard child. "lipstick" meet "pig".
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Ajax

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Re: "..a change in the history of the world,”
Reply #18 - Jun 6^th, 2015 at 11:56am

The alarmist camp even tampers with correct data to give a distorted view of the truth.

They are such hypocrites.

Quote:

@NOAA ‘s desperate new paper: Is there no global warming ‘hiatus’ after all?

Guest Blogger / 1 day ago June 4, 2015

Patrick J. Michaels

Richard S. Lindzen

Paul C. Knappenberger

A new paper published today by Science, from Thomas Karl and several co-authors[1], that removes the “hiatus” in global warming prompts many serious scientific questions.

The main claim[2] by the authors that they have uncovered a significant recent warming trend is dubious. The significance level they report on their findings (.10) is hardly normative, and the use of it should prompt members of the scientific community to question the reasoning behind the use of such a lax standard.

In addition, the authors’ treatment of buoy sea-surface temperature (SST) data was guaranteed to create a warming trend. The data were adjusted upward by 0.12°C to make them “homogeneous” with the longer-running temperature records taken from engine intake channels in marine vessels.

As has been acknowledged by numerous scientists, the engine intake data are clearly contaminated by heat conduction from the structure, and as such, never intended for scientific use. On the other hand, environmental monitoring is the specific purpose of the buoys. Adjusting good data upward to match bad data seems questionable, and the fact that the buoy network becomes increasingly dense in the last two decades means that this adjustment must put a warming trend in the data.

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The extension of high-latitude arctic land data over the Arctic Ocean is also questionable. Much of the Arctic Ocean is ice-covered even in high summer, meaning the surface temperature must remain near freezing. Extending land data out into the ocean will obviously induce substantially exaggerated temperatures.

Read the rest here
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/06/04/noaas-new-paper-is-there-no-global-warming...

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1. There has never been a more serious assault on our standard of living than Anthropogenic Global Warming..Ajax
2. "One hour of freedom is worth more than 40 years of slavery & prison" Regas Feraeos

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John_Taverner

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Re: "..a change in the history of the world,”
Reply #19 - Jun 6^th, 2015 at 4:15pm

lee wrote on Jun 6^th, 2015 at 11:45am:

Yes, because that tells us the method used. So have those who criticised the paper reviewed it? It would seem the answer is, yes.

They took (Ugly) noisy data from the ships, spliced it to (pretty) accurate data from the buoys and gave birth to a pretty ugly bastard child.

"lipstick" meet "pig".

You've got it arse about, because you just read the blogs. The bucket data from 1880 to 1940 is what was adjusted (upwards).

Have a think about it.

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lee

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Re: "..a change in the history of the world,”
Reply #20 - Jun 6^th, 2015 at 4:43pm

Let's suppose for a second Karl et al is correct.

Karl says the warming is 0.116/decade, the IPCC models (1990) say the warming for business-as-usual was 0.29/decade. The IPCC models have been proved wrong.

Think about it.

You don't want to look at the methodology, merely that the conclusions match the hypothesis?

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John_Taverner

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Re: "..a change in the history of the world,”
Reply #21 - Jun 6^th, 2015 at 5:38pm

lee wrote on Jun 6^th, 2015 at 4:43pm:

Let's suppose for a second Karl et al is correct.

Karl says the warming is 0.116/decade, the IPCC models (1990) say the warming for business-as-usual was 0.29/decade. The IPCC models have been proved wrong.

Think about it.

You don't want to look at the methodology, merely that the conclusions match the hypothesis?

You're changing the subject. We were talking about the
"Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming" hiatus paper were we not?

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lee Gold Member Online Australian Politics Posts: 21377 Gender:	Re: "..a change in the history of the world,” Reply #22 - Jun 6^th, 2015 at 5:54pm JT, Sorry. Thanks for reminding me. Yes, they are only "possible artifacts", they may not be artifacts at all, just a mental exercise. A way to waste a weekend. Isn't 0.116C/decade really, really scary?
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BatteriesNotIncluded Gold Member Offline MediocrityNET: because people died for this! Posts: 26966	Re: "..a change in the history of the world,” Reply #23 - Jun 6^th, 2015 at 6:06pm lee wrote on Jun 6^th, 2015 at 5:54pm: JT, Sorry. Thanks for reminding me. Yes, they are only "possible artifacts", they may not be artifacts at all, just a mental exercise. A way to waste a weekend. Isn't 0.116C/decade really, really scary? Why isn't it scary?
Back to top	Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is. It wouldn't be there without the tax payer. Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know.... (swaggy) IP Logged

BatteriesNotIncluded

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Re: "..a change in the history of the world,”
Reply #24 - Jun 6^th, 2015 at 6:12pm

gizmo_2655 wrote on Jun 5^th, 2015 at 8:42pm:

John_Taverner wrote on Jun 5^th, 2015 at 6:26pm:

lee wrote on Jun 5^th, 2015 at 3:11pm:

Not the multiple adjusted data.

Like the shonky graphs that Ajax cuts and pastes. Such faith in Bob Tisdale. I hear that he's decided to retire again - only the second time in 15 years.

Quote:

I’m Retiring from Full-Time Climate Change Blogging
Posted on January 3, 2014 by Bob Tisdale

THIS IS A STICKY POST. NEW POSTS WILL APPEAR BELOW IT.

# # #

As many of you are aware, I’m a pensioner, a retiree…or had been. Sales of my ebooks and the occasional tip/donation (many thanks to all who have donated over the years) have helped to pay the bills, but they haven’t covered them. So I’ve been forced to find another source of income.

It was probably a nice little earner spouting lies like he did. You see that Lee? There is hope for you yet. If a retired car salesman can do it, so can you.

Ajax's graphs are probably not 'shonky', when compared to the IPCC , and other warmist institution's graphs...

Gizmo is playing guessing games like Lomborg Grin

That is why Lomborg got laughed at by all of Australia and Tony Abbott can't help but look like a man with no gravitas at the next election Cheesy

Imagine being a liberal voter knowing Tony Abbott hates kids and the whole nation knows it but you're going to vote for him anyway because that's how the bluebloods get their reputation Grin

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*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is. It wouldn't be there without the tax payer. Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know.... (swaggy) *

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John_Taverner

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Re: "..a change in the history of the world,”
Reply #25 - Jun 6^th, 2015 at 6:13pm

lee wrote on Jun 6^th, 2015 at 5:54pm:

JT, Sorry. Thanks for reminding me.

Yes, they are only "possible artifacts", they may not be artifacts at all, just a mental exercise. A way to waste a weekend.

Isn't 0.116C/decade really, really scary?

There you go trying to analyse the paper without having read it again. It's a bit like using gravestone inscriptions only to reveal the history of the 19th century.

Quote:

You don't want to look at the methodology, merely that the conclusions match the hypothesis?

That's a bit rich considering that you're making (wrong) proclamations about it without having read the paper.

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lee

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Re: "..a change in the history of the world,”
Reply #26 - Jun 6^th, 2015 at 6:36pm

lee wrote on Jun 5^th, 2015 at 9:37pm:

Boldface indicates trends that are significant at the 0.10 significance level.

'In statistics, the p-value is a function of the observed sample results (a statistic) that is used for testing a statistical hypothesis. Before the test is performed, a threshold value is chosen, called the significance level of the test, traditionally 5% or 1% [1] and denoted as α'

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P-value

So you think the postulation is statistically significant?

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BatteriesNotIncluded

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Re: "..a change in the history of the world,”
Reply #27 - Jun 6^th, 2015 at 6:41pm

lee wrote on Jun 6^th, 2015 at 6:36pm:

lee wrote on Jun 5^th, 2015 at 9:37pm:

Boldface indicates trends that are significant at the 0.10 significance level.

'In statistics, the p-value is a function of the observed sample results (a statistic) that is used for testing a statistical hypothesis. Before the test is performed, a threshold value is chosen, called the significance level of the test, traditionally 5% or 1% [1] and denoted as α'

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P-value

So you think the postulation is statistically significant?

Who are you talking to?

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*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is. It wouldn't be there without the tax payer. Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know.... (swaggy) *

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John_Taverner

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Re: "..a change in the history of the world,”
Reply #28 - Jun 6^th, 2015 at 8:03pm

BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Jun 6^th, 2015 at 6:41pm:

lee wrote on Jun 6^th, 2015 at 6:36pm:

lee wrote on Jun 5^th, 2015 at 9:37pm:

Boldface indicates trends that are significant at the 0.10 significance level.

'In statistics, the p-value is a function of the observed sample results (a statistic) that is used for testing a statistical hypothesis. Before the test is performed, a threshold value is chosen, called the significance level of the test, traditionally 5% or 1% [1] and denoted as α'

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P-value

So you think the postulation is statistically significant?

Who are you talking to?

Himself. (He's lost the plot)

Somebody who talks about a paper without having read it must be suss. Do you agree?

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BatteriesNotIncluded

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Re: "..a change in the history of the world,”
Reply #29 - Jun 6^th, 2015 at 8:48pm

John_Taverner wrote on Jun 6^th, 2015 at 8:03pm:

BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Jun 6^th, 2015 at 6:41pm:

lee wrote on Jun 6^th, 2015 at 6:36pm:

lee wrote on Jun 5^th, 2015 at 9:37pm:

Boldface indicates trends that are significant at the 0.10 significance level.

'In statistics, the p-value is a function of the observed sample results (a statistic) that is used for testing a statistical hypothesis. Before the test is performed, a threshold value is chosen, called the significance level of the test, traditionally 5% or 1% [1] and denoted as α'

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P-value

So you think the postulation is statistically significant?

Who are you talking to?

Himself. (He's lost the plot)

Somebody who talks about a paper without having read it must be suss. Do you agree?

Busy: i'm all document shocked with wikipedia pages Cheesy

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*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is. It wouldn't be there without the tax payer. Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know.... (swaggy) *

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