Australian Politics Forum - IPCC models vs Observed Data

Ajax Gold Member Offline CO2 has never controlled temperature on Earth Posts: 11070 Australia Gender:	IPCC models vs Observed Data May 26^th, 2015 at 9:24pm When your predictions, calculations and climate models don't match the observed data its time to throw out the baby and its water. Start again. That's real science. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/10/14/90-climate-model-projectons-versus-reality...
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Ajax

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Re: IPCC models vs Observed Data
Reply #1 - May 26^th, 2015 at 9:34pm

Where is the hotspot in the tropopause....?????

Daily weather balloons just can't seem to find it.

You know why cause it only exists in the IPCC models

Quote:

The missing hotspot

The ‘Hotspot’ is crucial to the climate debate.

If greenhouses gases are warming the planet that warming will happen first in the cold blob of air 8-12 km above the tropics. It’s freezing cold up there, but it ought to be slightly less freezing cold thanks to greenhouse gases. All 20-odd climate models predict warming there first—it’s the fingerprint of greenhouse gas warming, as opposed to warming by some other cause, like solar magnetic effects, volcanic eruptions, solar irradiance, or ozone depletion etc etc.

Read the rest here
http://joannenova.com.au/2008/10/the-missing-hotspot/

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1. There has never been a more serious assault on our standard of living than Anthropogenic Global Warming..Ajax
2. "One hour of freedom is worth more than 40 years of slavery & prison" Regas Feraeos

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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21369 Gender:	Re: IPCC models vs Observed Data Reply #2 - May 26^th, 2015 at 9:38pm Matthew England claims to have found the tropical tropospheric hotspot; it has been holidaying in the Southern Ocean.
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Chimp_Logic

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Re: IPCC models vs Observed Data
Reply #3 - May 26^th, 2015 at 9:40pm

Ajax

Do you have any models that predict cooling or static global temperatures as CO2 concentration rises in the earths atmosphere???

Surely there are counter models to support your lunacy?

Any theory that predicts cooling or static temperatures as CO2 concentration rises??

Come on Ajax provide one model - anything - even DATA.

Something - anything

You do have something dont you Ajax????

Or are you just full of hot air?

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Mini Ice Age (2014-2029)
Dr Sircus cures cancer with Baking Soda and Magnesium - Jethro the MENTAL GIANT & his flute madness

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Ajax

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Re: IPCC models vs Observed Data
Reply #4 - May 26^th, 2015 at 9:42pm

When weather balloons and satellites failed to finr the hot spot in the tropopause the alarmists said, the missing heat is in the oceans, the top 700 metres.

Nup couldn't find it there so then they said its in the deep oceans.

Nup couldn't find it there either.....!

Cause since 2002 we have had the ARGO.....3000 buoys all over the world's oceans measuring ocean temperature down to 2000 metres.

Quote:

The Travesty of the Missing Heat — deep ocean or outer space?

If there is one topic that trumps all others in climate science, it’s ocean heat.

If there is a planetary imbalance in energy, and Earth is acquiring more heat than it’s losing, we ought to be able to find that heat. Energy can not be created nor destroyed. It has to be somewhere.

On this Water-Planet, virtually every scientist agrees that the vast bulk of the extra energy ought be stored in the water. The oceans cover 70% of the surface, and are 4km deep; water has a high heat capacity (meaning it can store a lot of energy), and, because water flows quickly (unlike rock), turbulence and mixing can take that heat energy away from the surface.

Every skeptic (and taxpayer) ought to know that since 2003 (when we started measuring oceans properly) the oceans have been cooling: Douglass and Knox 2010.

Five years of planetary heating amounts to a massive amount of energy. That’s 2,000 days of the sun bearing down on an atmosphere with growing levels of CO2. According to the IPCC favored models, the extra heat stored should be 0.7 x 1022 Joules per year (or 7,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 joules per annum or 7,000 quintillion joules).

The oceans cause a lot of “noise” in our climate — the water is 4km deep and mostly close to freezing, even in the depths under the tropics. When the ocean is “stirred” cold water wells up and sucks the heat out of the atmosphere giving us a La Nina and a cooler year. When the ocean is calm, the massive stores of “cold” stay sequestered below, the surface water warms faster, and satellite record an El Nino warm spike. Figuring out the effects of CO2 with surface thermometers is difficult because of this noise and variability. But the vast oceans are the giant storage depots for heat content year after year.

Read the rest here
http://joannenova.com.au/2011/12/the-travesty-of-the-missing-heat-deep-ocean-or-...

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1. There has never been a more serious assault on our standard of living than Anthropogenic Global Warming..Ajax
2. "One hour of freedom is worth more than 40 years of slavery & prison" Regas Feraeos

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Ajax

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Re: IPCC models vs Observed Data
Reply #5 - May 26^th, 2015 at 9:47pm

Tell me chimp why would Michael Mann deliberately hide the medieval warm period and the mini ice age...???

In his hockey stick....?????

Especially after Mr. Lamb showed it in the 1990 IPCC report....???

What's the reason.....???

Medieval warm period warmer than today.

Dahl_Jensen et al 1998
Wagner & Melles 2001
Kaplan et al 2002
Jiang et al 2002
Moore et al 2001
Grudd et al 2002
Seppa & Birks 2002
Dansgaard et al 1975
Korhola et al 2000
Naurzbaev et al 2002
Vaganov et el 1996
Briffa et al 1998
Scweingruber & Briffa 1996
Knudsen et al 2004
Grinsted et al 2006
Besonen et al 2008
Wagner et al 2008
Vare et al 2009
Norgaard-Pedersen & Mikkelsen 2009
Andresen et al 2004
Vinther et al 2010
Kobashi et al 2010
Kobashi et al 2008
Stuiver et al 1995
Dansgaard et al 1975
Jenings & Weiner 1996
Johnsen et al 2001
Vinther et al 2010
Larsen et al 2011
Hill et al 2001
Joynt & Wolfe 2001
Hantemirov & Shiyatov 2002
Andersson et al 2003
Helama et al 2005
Mazepa 2005
Weckstrom et al 2006
Jiang et al 2007
Zabenski & Gajewski 2007
Grudd 2008
Justwan et al 2008
Scire et al 2008
Axford et al 2009
Bjune et al 2009
Cook et al 2009
Fortin & Gajewski 2010
Buntgen et al 2011
Divine et al 2011
Ran et al 2011
Velle et al 2011
D’Andrea et al 2012
Esper et al 2012

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« Last Edit: May 26^th, 2015 at 10:13pm by Ajax »

1. There has never been a more serious assault on our standard of living than Anthropogenic Global Warming..Ajax
2. "One hour of freedom is worth more than 40 years of slavery & prison" Regas Feraeos

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Chimp_Logic

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Re: IPCC models vs Observed Data
Reply #6 - May 26^th, 2015 at 9:53pm

Hey Ajax

Do you have any economic models that predicted the 2008 Global financial crisis? Surely such a major global financial event would have been forecasted by expert economists?

Are you aware that Bear Sterns had a AAA financial rating right before the GFC of 2008? What happened to that basket case corporation Ajax?

You still put your money in the Bank dont you Ajax.

You seem to trust economists implicitly and yet they cant tell you what will happen tomorrow in the markets - when the next Bubble will burst and what to do with your moola.

And yet you have great personal difficulty with accepting that CO2 is a greenhouse gas - you wrestle with this dilemma every day batcrap

Yes ladies and gentlemen the Great Ajax batman clown is in town with his internet graphs and YouTube videos.

Well done Ajax - I am sure your therapist still has a lot of work to do before your next crisis Grin

PS: did you work out why Lamb's graph lacks units on the y-axis yet? Nice pretty colours though - where did you dig that graph up from Ajax, fruit loops packet?

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Mini Ice Age (2014-2029)
Dr Sircus cures cancer with Baking Soda and Magnesium - Jethro the MENTAL GIANT & his flute madness

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Ajax Gold Member Offline CO2 has never controlled temperature on Earth Posts: 11070 Australia Gender:	Re: IPCC models vs Observed Data Reply #7 - May 26^th, 2015 at 10:19pm Is that the best you can come up with you smelly chimp..! Why are you dodging the subject with tangents about the GFC....??? Anyway I'm tired but there is more to add to this list.
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Chimp_Logic

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Re: IPCC models vs Observed Data
Reply #8 - May 27^th, 2015 at 12:10am

Poor Poor Ajax, he cant respond to a simple challenge and find ONE, just ONE predictive model, theory, hypothesis, scrap of data, anything at all that can demonstrate a cooling or static thermal Earth, as CO2 concentration rises in the atmosphere

Poor Poor deranged Craped Crusader - he has to run away and sleep and rest because tomorrow he must post more web videos and putrid stench web sites.

sweet dreams batcrap - dont have any nightmares over this - we wouldnt want your posting rate to suffer tomorrow now would we Ajax

Poor Poor Dr Sircus mentor, the Easterbrook bunny follower and Salby crack pot worshiper.

Denier - you stand condemned for lunacy, deception and self righteous propaganda dissemination.

As well as boring yourself to sleep Ajax you have also managed to bore me to slumber.

Begone with you smelly freak maggot of Hades

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Mini Ice Age (2014-2029)
Dr Sircus cures cancer with Baking Soda and Magnesium - Jethro the MENTAL GIANT & his flute madness

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Bobby. Moderator Offline Australian Politics Posts: 121238 Melbourne Gender:	Re: IPCC models vs Observed Data Reply #9 - May 27^th, 2015 at 12:23am All this is further evidence that an Ice Age is upon us. Mother nature is smarter than most of the scientists - they might as well look at chicken entrails to make their global warming predictions. they are forgiven namaste
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Chimp_Logic Gold Member Offline πολιτικός Posts: 4826 Mawson Base Gender:	Re: IPCC models vs Observed Data Reply #10 - May 27^th, 2015 at 1:48am I wonder what Dr Sircus thinks?
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John_Taverner

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Re: IPCC models vs Observed Data
Reply #11 - May 27^th, 2015 at 9:42am

Ajax wrote on May 26^th, 2015 at 9:47pm:

Tell me chimp why would Michael Mann deliberately hide the medieval warm period and the mini ice age...???

In his hockey stick....?????

Especially after Mr. Lamb showed it in the 1990 IPCC report....???

What's the reason.....???

You must be very desperate to go back 25 years to a period (late 1980s) that had very little in the way of data sets.

- but just as a matter of interest, tell me, was the original publication Northern Hemisphere data or global data?

Is your argument based on the premise that the earlier data was more representative than all the later datasets?

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gizmo_2655

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Re: IPCC models vs Observed Data
Reply #12 - May 27^th, 2015 at 10:11am

John_Taverner wrote on May 27^th, 2015 at 9:42am:

Ajax wrote on May 26^th, 2015 at 9:47pm:

Tell me chimp why would Michael Mann deliberately hide the medieval warm period and the mini ice age...???

In his hockey stick....?????

Especially after Mr. Lamb showed it in the 1990 IPCC report....???

What's the reason.....???

You must be very desperate to go back 25 years to a period (late 1980s) that had very little in the way of data sets.

- but just as a matter of interest, tell me, was the original publication Northern Hemisphere data or global data?

Is your argument based on the premise that the earlier data was more representative than all the later datasets?

Given that there aren't many (or perhaps even aren't any) Southern Hemisphere records kept between 800 AD and 1300 AD, it's a pretty good bet the MWP was discovered using Northern Hemisphere data.

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"I just get sick of people who place a label on someone else with their own definition.

It's similar to a strawman fallacy"
Bobbythebat

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Ajax

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Re: IPCC models vs Observed Data
Reply #13 - May 27^th, 2015 at 6:26pm

John_Taverner wrote on May 27^th, 2015 at 9:42am:

Ajax wrote on May 26^th, 2015 at 9:47pm:

Tell me chimp why would Michael Mann deliberately hide the medieval warm period and the mini ice age...???

In his hockey stick....?????

Especially after Mr. Lamb showed it in the 1990 IPCC report....???

What's the reason.....???

You must be very desperate to go back 25 years to a period (late 1980s) that had very little in the way of data sets.

- but just as a matter of interest, tell me, was the original publication Northern Hemisphere data or global data?

Is your argument based on the premise that the earlier data was more representative than all the later datasets?

It just shows that its not science at the fore here but politics and all the dirty laundry that comes with it.

If it was science AGW would have been dead and buried a long long time ago....!!!!!!!

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1. There has never been a more serious assault on our standard of living than Anthropogenic Global Warming..Ajax
2. "One hour of freedom is worth more than 40 years of slavery & prison" Regas Feraeos

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Ajax

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CO2 has never controlled
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Re: IPCC models vs Observed Data
Reply #14 - May 27^th, 2015 at 6:32pm

Chimp_Logic wrote on May 27^th, 2015 at 12:10am:

Poor Poor Ajax, he cant respond to a simple challenge and find ONE, just ONE predictive model, theory, hypothesis, scrap of data, anything at all that can demonstrate a cooling or static thermal Earth, as CO2 concentration rises in the atmosphere

Poor Poor deranged Craped Crusader - he has to run away and sleep and rest because tomorrow he must post more web videos and putrid stench web sites.

sweet dreams batcrap - dont have any nightmares over this - we wouldnt want your posting rate to suffer tomorrow now would we Ajax

Poor Poor Dr Sircus mentor, the Easterbrook bunny follower and Salby crack pot worshiper.

Denier - you stand condemned for lunacy, deception and self righteous propaganda dissemination.

As well as boring yourself to sleep Ajax you have also managed to bore me to slumber.

Begone with you smelly freak maggot of Hades

My dear red arsed chimp we all know the climate models the IPCC use are worthless pieces of junk that haven't been able to forecast ZIP....!!!!!!

We know from the measurements we have taken and compared them to the forecasts of the IPCC models.

What will you do if AGW is mythologizied.

You wouldn't jump of the nearest bridge would you and do us all a favour.

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1. There has never been a more serious assault on our standard of living than Anthropogenic Global Warming..Ajax
2. "One hour of freedom is worth more than 40 years of slavery & prison" Regas Feraeos

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