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What happened to the Recovery? (Read 3248 times)
perceptions_now
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What happened to the Recovery?
Jan 14th, 2015 at 1:09pm
 
I re-post the following here, as it is/should be relevant, to all Politicians & their "supporters"!

perceptions_now wrote on Jan 14th, 2015 at 1:04pm:
perceptions_now wrote on Jan 3rd, 2015 at 11:54am:
This Is Why The Fed Is Between A Rock And A Hard Place


The Fed is about to raise interest rates sometime in 2015 (for the first time in 6 years), and that could be trouble for stocks just as it was after the ending QE-1, and QE-2. On the other hand, if they don't raise rates it would only be based on failed QE policies that were supposed to revive the economy. This is the incredible dilemma that the Fed faces in the coming year.

All of the aforementioned factors are screaming "deflation." Thus far the market has not heard the message. But we are convinced that it will be heard, and when it does, we believe the U.S. stock market will decline precipitously.


http://seekingalpha.com/article/2791685-this-is-why-the-fed-is-between-a-rock-an...
=======================================================
I doubt, we will see the US FedRes raise rates! But, if they do get in first, then they will back out quickly, as Share Markets start to Decline!


World Bank cuts global economic outlook despite oil price drop


The World Bank on Tuesday lowered its global growth forecast for 2015 and next year due to disappointing economic prospects in the euro zone, Japan and some major emerging economies that offset the benefit of lower oil prices.

"The global economy is at a disconcerting juncture," World Bank chief economist Kaushik Basu told reporters. "It is as challenging a moment as it gets for economic forecasting."

The world economy has been more sluggish than expected since the 2007-2009 global financial crisis.


The World Bank said strong growth prospects in the United States and Britain separated them from other rich nations, including members of the euro zone and Japan, which continue to face anemic economies and deflation fears.

"The global economy is running on a single engine, ... the American one," Basu said. "This does not make for a rosy outlook for the world."


Among emerging markets, Brazil and Russia in particular weighed on the bank's global growth predictions, along with China, which is in a managed slowdown as it transitions away from an investment-led growth model.

The immediate impact of lower crude prices was limited to a 0.1 percentage point boost to the global outlook this year, the World Bank said.

Falling oil prices could also depress inflation around the world. Fears of deflation, along with overall gloomier global prospects and
stagnant U.S. wages, could encourage the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise interest rates more slowly than anticipated
, Basu said.

http://in.reuters.com/article/2015/01/13/worldbank-economy-idINKBN0KM2AG20150113
======================================================
As previously stated, I can not see the FedRes raising interest rates & if it tried, it would be forced to quickly back off, as Share markets would react adversely! 


Btw, in saying "The global economy is at a disconcerting juncture," World Bank chief economist Kaushik Basu told reporters. "It is as challenging a moment as it gets for economic forecasting.", it was only confirming, that they (the World Bank), other CB's & Governments have no idea "how to bring back the "old Economy" AND THE FACT IS THEY WON'T & CAN'T.

Finally, they do confirm that "this time is different" , with the Global Economy continuing to be more sluggish than usual, But I strongly suspect that their reference to "strong growth prospects in the United States" is more a matter of "wishing & hoping", rather than anything based in fact!
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Re: What happened to the Recovery?
Reply #1 - Jan 14th, 2015 at 4:59pm
 
Normally, share market Declines are followed by a bounce, the Economy also bounces and "normality" returns, all in a fairly quick succession!

But, as I said previously, "this time is different" and the All Ords closed today at 5332, which is a level first achieved in October 2006.

So, for the many who have been told the best strategy is to "Buy & Hold Shares", you should legitimately ask -
WHY HAVE MY SHARES NOT EXPERIENCED ANY GROWTH IN 8 YEARS?


And, given my expectations of a 50-90% Decline coming shortly, I would be saying a little more than simply "What happened to the Recovery"?    

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^AORD#symbol=^AORD;range=

What have both sides of Politics told you? 
They haven't told you the truth!
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Re: What happened to the Recovery?
Reply #2 - Jan 15th, 2015 at 11:56pm
 
When looking at Economics there are many factors, which should be included in considerations.

Following are some of those factors and I would note that whilst Australia does have a large increase in its Debt to GDP, that is an effect of starting from a relatively low starting point, compared to the other countries.

So, whilst the Growth rate is higher, both the start & finish points are much lower and the straight out GDP Growth is also considerably higher! 

It should also be noted that Australia increased its GDP by 110%, whilst only increasing its Debt to GDP ratio by 10%.

However,the USA had only a 21% increase in its GDP, but its Debt to GDP ratio jumped by 38% and the UK GDP increased by only 1.6%, whilst its Debt to GDP ratio jumped by 47%. Obviously, these sort of results can not continue & the piper will require payment, at some point, in the not too distant future!

The thing is, one must impose these factors, as well as others such as Demographics, Energy (Supply & Pricing) & Climate Change, when considering what will happen with Local & Global Economics, for the foreseeable future and for these and reasons, the future of Global/Local Shares & general Economics are set for some serious downtime in the years ahead, irrespective of which Political Party is in Power & irrespective of which Party you may "support".!



List of countries, by Debt to GDP %

Country        2007     2008    2009    2010    2011    2012    2013    2014       
USA              63.9      64.8     76        87.1     95.2     99.4     100.1   101.53    
Canada         70.3     66.5      71.3     81.3     83.1     83.5     88.1     89.1      
Euro Area     68.5      66.2     70.1     80.0     83.7     85.8     89.0     90.9         
UK                43.4      44.5     52.3     67.1     78.4     84.3     89.1     90.6         
France          63.7      63.9     68.2     79.2     81.5     85.0     89.2     92.2         
Germany      67.6      64.9     66.8     74.5     80.3     77.6     79.0     76.9       
Italy              106.6    103.6   106.1  116.4    119.3   120.7   127.0   132.6      
Japan            172.1    167.0   174.1  194.1    200.0   211.7   218.8   227.20    
Australia       10.0      9.7       11.8    16.9      20.4    22.9      27.16   20.48      


List of countries, by GDP in $Billions/% Growth to L/Y

Country        2007                 2008            2009                2010            2011                2012            2013            2014            Increase 2007-2014
USA              13,857-N/A      14,480/4.5    14,720/1.6     14,418/-2     14,958/3.7      15,534/4      16,245/4.5    16,800/3.4  21%
Canada        1,310-N/A        1,458/11        1,542/5.7      1,371/-11     1,614/18         1,779/10      1,821/2        1,825/0       39%
Euro Area     10,743-N/A      12,319/15      13,581/10     12,419/-9     12,165/-2       13,128/8      12,212/-7     12,749/4     19%   
UK                2.483-N/A        2,857/15        2,688/-6        2,208/-18     2,295/4          2,462/7        2,461/0         2,522/2      1.6%    
France          2,256-N/A        2,582/14        2,831/10       2,619/-8       2,565/-2         2,782/8        2,611/-6       2,734/5       21%       
Germany      2,903-N/A        3,324/15        3,624/9         3,298/1.7      3,304/0          3,628/11      3,426/-6       3,635/6       25%
Italy              1,873-N/A        2,127/14        2,307/8         2,111/-9       2,055/-3         2,196/7        2,103/-4       2,071/-1.5   11%
Japan            4,360-N/A        4,360/0          4,850/11       5,035/4        5,495/9          5,905/7        5,938/-0.5     4,901/-17   12%
Australia      745-N/A            850/11           1052/24        923/-12        1,138/23        1,384/22      1,532/11      1,561/2       110%    

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/australia/government-debt-to-gdp

Note: I can not vouch for the accuracy of these figures, but they do at least come from the same site, so if there are errors, then hopefully they are consistent.
That said, all of the Debt to GDP figures, do seem too low, to varying degrees!
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Ex Dame Pansi
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Re: What happened to the Recovery?
Reply #3 - Jan 16th, 2015 at 7:29am
 

There will be no recovery, not for decades.


As a matter of fact...................

...
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Re: What happened to the Recovery?
Reply #4 - Jan 16th, 2015 at 10:50am
 
Ex Dame Pansi wrote on Jan 16th, 2015 at 7:29am:
There will be no recovery, not for decades.


As a matter of fact...................

http://1-ps.googleusercontent.com/xk/ifphwS7v-Kw9w4pBErrrmXz69m/www.thaivisa.com...


Well, whilst I would not want to interfere with "Longy's beliefs", unfortunately it is pretty clear that there is no recovery & there won't be for quite some time and that is what "the facts" are saying!

Also unfortunately, the major Political Party's in Australia, whilst they have both done "a better job" than most overseas Politicians, they still didn't do anywhere near enough & neither of them are doing the Australian Public any favors, by NO TELLING US THE TRUTH, WHICH BOTH MUST NOW KNOW AND BOTH "SHOULD" HAVE KNOWN, FOR QUITE SOME TIME!
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Re: What happened to the Recovery?
Reply #5 - Jan 16th, 2015 at 11:37am
 
(down at the Budget Hospital)...

"Mrs Australia - I have some sad news.  It appears your babies were still born, and the survivor is struggling. Both Budget and Recovery have passed on, and Abbott Government is on life support."


Several issues ariuse from reading the early posts.

One is that, as long stated in the Grappler Manifesto - the 'global economy' is a myth and a failed proposition from Day One, since it offshores virtually everything into the hands of offshore cartels with little to no tax and other allegiance to any one country, and thus have a host of evasive moves to avoid tax etc.  At the same time, the offshoring of jobs and resources and the utter lack of infrastructure and genuine investment input into countries via infrastructure that counts, is destroying every country in the world for the benefit of a few.

We are ALL 'Third World' under this regime of non-responsible and non-responsive vultures.

This is the Land of The Robber Barons writ large and anew.

Secondly, a comparison of Australia in terms with GDP/debt, with other and much more populous countries with an entirely different infrastructure setup, is hazardous. For example, our genuine manufacturing, unlike say Germany's, is miniscule, and thus our fabled (Julia Gillard - 'Asian will become consumers of high quality finished goods' - inferring that somehow we will feed that market  Grin  - a laughable proposition that many fell for and purest rhetoric) 'production' is limited almost entirely to resources - thus making of us not a First World country, but a Third World one (with the beggars some of the scenery).

Ergo simple comparisons on the basis of Debt/GDP are fraught with peril and a finer analysis is needed.  (just saying - not criticising).

Further, when far too much of 'GDP' ends up in the hands of a few individuals and organisations (including government with its voracious appetite for more and more taxes while playing Oliver Twist in Armani), and there is not a reasonably even spread of incomes across the community, the economy this GDP feeds is wrongly based, and rather than becoming a national vehicle for any potential recovery, has become instead an enrichment process for the few 'insiders' (again), a bandwagon onto which our politicians, rather than serving the people, leap with gay abandon and almost in entirety.

It is no great secret that government pork-barreling exercises from BOTH sides of the Tag Team that involve BILLIONS, such as childcare, privatisation and so forth... draw the families and friends of politicians like blowflies to a fat barbecue, a form of the most insidious corruption in history and absolutely in line with the worst excesses of many failed past government styles, including Nazism, Marcosism, and every other essentially Peasant in Armani government in history.

Probably plenty of other comment... but I'm running out of breath and I'm cooking up nectarine jam.... fruit split from too much rain this year.
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« Last Edit: Jan 16th, 2015 at 12:11pm by Sir Grappler Truth Teller OAM »  

“Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence.”
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Re: What happened to the Recovery?
Reply #6 - Jan 16th, 2015 at 12:52pm
 
Recovery...from a capitalist standpoint even we see there is no real Recovery, and we are in for a great depression so large it will being down nation states,

We have abandon capitalism, our economy more looks like a fascists economy, a national socialism economy where what left of the free market is now manipulated by the state for the benefit of big business or unions, (instead of the state regulating the free market to keep it fair and free)

We haven't yet regulated our banks properly nor have to stopped the reason why the GFC started. We have an expanding welfare system which within itself isn't a bad thing, but with few jobs and business finding it harder to pay higher wages with increase tax's and expand, things isn't looking up.

Nothing has changed from 2007 to 2014.. we have huge government debt as well as private debt, and like Argentina in 2014, Dominican Republic  in 2005, India in 1972, when did hits a tipping out, its a fast down hill till you are forced to default.

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Re: What happened to the Recovery?
Reply #7 - Jan 16th, 2015 at 1:00pm
 
As an aside - one of my biggest beefs with La Gillard was that inane comment -

"Asians will become consumers of high quality finished products!"

- phrased and clearly intended to put across to we peons the idea that we will ride the crest of some wave of high-tech and high quality export to Asia... nothing could be and indeed was further from the truth.

That one stands head  and shoulders above even the ridiculous 'misogyny' campaign, which may have impressed little girlies in wool hats at Malbun and Syd-eney universities etc - but did not one thing of value for this country and those totally uninterested in the evils, inanity, insanity, posturing, trumped-up issues, favouritism/preference, discrimination, and rhetoric of 'feminism'.
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« Last Edit: Jan 16th, 2015 at 1:12pm by Sir Grappler Truth Teller OAM »  

“Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence.”
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Re: What happened to the Recovery?
Reply #8 - Jan 16th, 2015 at 1:18pm
 
Sir Grappler Truth Teller OAM wrote on Jan 16th, 2015 at 1:00pm:
As an aside - one of my biggest beefs with La Gillard was that inane comment, phrased and clearly intended to put across to we peons the idea that we will ride the crest of some wave of high-tech and high quality export to Asia... nothing could be and indeed was further from the truth.

That one stands head  and shoulders above even the ridiculous 'misogyny' campaign, which may have impressed little girlies in wool hats at Malbun and Syd-eney universities etc - but did not one thing of value for this country and those totally uninterested in the evils, inanity, insanity, posturing, trumped-up issues, favouritism/preference, discrimination, and rhetoric of 'feminism'.


Tasmania has huge potential to feed Asia, Alone we could meet most of Australia's green food demands, but there are problems..

however there a two problems. 1) Government, Government intervention in the free market undercutting our products for another nations products for short term benefits and regulation which makes it incredibly tough to set up any new trading deal between famers and suppliers in Asia as extremely difficult in not impossible at times, as well as enough red tape to make a highly profitable trade to become a unprofitable trade , and 2) is farmers aren't business minded people, (many on the mainland are however) the market is huge for potato so what do tassie famers do? they farm carrots which demand is down,  this harms how much they can get and harms their ability to meet supply and demand, they also dont understand you have to go to places like Asia meet suppliers and face to face come up with a deal, most tassie farmers just expect business will come to them..sadly thats not how it works.

So i totally think we can feed Asia, at lest he high quality food export, but they need to get farmers meeting with suppliers not government officials meeting government officials.
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Re: What happened to the Recovery?
Reply #9 - Jan 16th, 2015 at 1:32pm
 
Pantheon wrote on Jan 16th, 2015 at 12:52pm:
Recovery...from a capitalist standpoint even we see there is no real Recovery, and we are in for a great depression so large it will being down nation states,

We have abandon capitalism, our economy more looks like a fascists economy, a national socialism economy where what left of the free market is now manipulated by the state for the benefit of big business or unions, (instead of the state regulating the free market to keep it fair and free)

We haven't yet regulated our banks properly nor have to stopped the reason why the GFC started. We have an expanding welfare system which within itself isn't a bad thing, but with few jobs and business finding it harder to pay higher wages with increase tax's and expand, things isn't looking up.

Nothing has changed from 2007 to 2014.. we have huge government debt as well as private debt, and like Argentina in 2014, Dominican Republic  in 2005, India in 1972, when did hits a tipping out, its a fast down hill till you are forced to default.



And, the reason for the GFC, in your opinion, was?

That's not quite correct, we actually have a much higher Global Debt now, than was the case in 2007!

And, although the OZ Debt is no where near as high as many other countries & well within usually manageable proportions, on this occasion things are different & situations will change quickly from Good, to Bad & finally ugly!

It should also be born in mind, that we are all now, highly interconnected!
   


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Re: What happened to the Recovery?
Reply #10 - Jan 16th, 2015 at 3:29pm
 
perceptions_now wrote on Jan 16th, 2015 at 1:32pm:
Pantheon wrote on Jan 16th, 2015 at 12:52pm:
Recovery...from a capitalist standpoint even we see there is no real Recovery, and we are in for a great depression so large it will being down nation states,

We have abandon capitalism, our economy more looks like a fascists economy, a national socialism economy where what left of the free market is now manipulated by the state for the benefit of big business or unions, (instead of the state regulating the free market to keep it fair and free)

We haven't yet regulated our banks properly nor have to stopped the reason why the GFC started. We have an expanding welfare system which within itself isn't a bad thing, but with few jobs and business finding it harder to pay higher wages with increase tax's and expand, things isn't looking up.

Nothing has changed from 2007 to 2014.. we have huge government debt as well as private debt, and like Argentina in 2014, Dominican Republic  in 2005, India in 1972, when did hits a tipping out, its a fast down hill till you are forced to default.



And, the reason for the GFC, in your opinion, was?

That's not quite correct, we actually have a much higher Global Debt now, than was the case in 2007!

And, although the OZ Debt is no where near as high as many other countries & well within usually manageable proportions, on this occasion things are different & situations will change quickly from Good, to Bad & finally ugly!

It should also be born in mind, that we are all now, highly interconnected!
   



When i said "Nothing has changed from 2007 to 2014.. i didn't mean our debt didn't change, of cause its grown i was talking about regulating and fixing the problem. Debt is a huge problem and by the looks of it neither labor or liberal will be able to fix the debt problem.

Also the seeds of the GFC really started in 2001, when the bush administration began to de-regulation banks, enabling them to start loaning large loans to people who couldn't pay them back..and enabling other harmful practices.

Banks need to be regulated, or things like the GFC happens.

The problem is Government (Government giving hands out to banks and corporations, and deregulating for  corporations benefits) Our system, our government is corrupt and manipulating what is left of the so called "free market" for the benefits of banks and corporations as well as interest groups and unions.



This is a great video, we need to help makers and regulate and crash takers to help fix our system.



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[b][center]Socialism had been tried on every continent on earth. In light of its results, it's time to question the motives of its advocates.
 
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Re: What happened to the Recovery?
Reply #11 - Jan 16th, 2015 at 4:25pm
 
This thread is little more than a collection of desperately depressed people in need of more medication.  We have Prozac-now who believes in peak oil and that every country is in recession - despite the evidence to the contrary.  And there is pansi, multiple-voter and wannabe arsonist who has been predicting doom and gloom for 15 years now and been wrong every single time.

say no more.  When these two losers predict the end of the world we can know for sure that 2015 will be a good year.
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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."
 
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Re: What happened to the Recovery?
Reply #12 - Jan 16th, 2015 at 5:15pm
 
longweekend58 wrote on Jan 16th, 2015 at 4:25pm:
This thread is little more than a collection of desperately depressed people in need of more medication.  We have Prozac-now who believes in peak oil and that every country is in recession - despite the evidence to the contrary. 

say no more.  When these two losers predict the end of the world we can know for sure that 2015 will be a good year.


And, there we have the Longy "Belief/s"!

As usual, Longy's "beliefs" are backed up by, well there backed up by nothing!

In fact, your "beliefs" Longy, are dead wrong, as is your assertion that the US & UK were doing well, they are not & nor is the rest of Europe, Japan, China & everyone else that matters!

As for losers, you may be the biggest loser, as you Decline to accept REAL FACTS and stay with your "beliefs", poor Longloser!

Oh btw, if you want any credibility, I suggest you introduce REAL FACTS and back them up with REAL REFERENCES!
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Re: What happened to the Recovery?
Reply #13 - Jan 16th, 2015 at 5:27pm
 
Pantheon wrote on Jan 16th, 2015 at 1:18pm:
Tasmania has huge potential to feed Asia, Alone we could meet most of Australia's green food demands, but there are problems..

however there a two problems. 1) Government, Government intervention in the free market undercutting our products for another nations products for short term benefits and regulation which makes it incredibly tough to set up any new trading deal between famers and suppliers in Asia as extremely difficult in not impossible at times, as well as enough red tape to make a highly profitable trade to become a unprofitable trade , and 2) is farmers aren't business minded people, (many on the mainland are however) the market is huge for potato so what do tassie famers do? they farm carrots which demand is down,  this harms how much they can get and harms their ability to meet supply and demand, they also dont understand you have to go to places like Asia meet suppliers and face to face come up with a deal, most tassie farmers just expect business will come to them..sadly thats not how it works.

So i totally think we can feed Asia, at lest he high quality food export, but they need to get farmers meeting with suppliers not government officials meeting government officials.



I have been saying for many years now, if we do one thing, it must be agriculture on a massive scale. There's no reason why both states and federal governments can't get some serious crop farming under way, on a huge scale. Once govt. sponsored farms are seen to be successful, private companies will buy into it and in no time we will have a flourishing new industry.

We all know food security is at risk, we could be the ones to feed a big part of the world or even just the Asian region would be enough....for starters.
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Re: What happened to the Recovery?
Reply #14 - Jan 16th, 2015 at 5:42pm
 
perceptions_now wrote on Jan 16th, 2015 at 5:15pm:
longweekend58 wrote on Jan 16th, 2015 at 4:25pm:
This thread is little more than a collection of desperately depressed people in need of more medication.  We have Prozac-now who believes in peak oil and that every country is in recession - despite the evidence to the contrary. 

say no more.  When these two losers predict the end of the world we can know for sure that 2015 will be a good year.


And, there we have the Longy "Belief/s"!

As usual, Longy's "beliefs" are backed up by, well there backed up by nothing!

In fact, your "beliefs" Longy, are dead wrong, as is your assertion that the US & UK were doing well, they are not & nor is the rest of Europe, Japan, China & everyone else that matters!

As for losers, you may be the biggest loser, as you Decline to accept REAL FACTS and stay with your "beliefs", poor Longloser!

Oh btw, if you want any credibility, I suggest you introduce REAL FACTS and back them up with REAL REFERENCES!


you have the same story, year in, year out.  and the usa has a GROWING ECONOMY as does most of the world but, no... you say different.

what you have is a case of mental illness that refuses to believe any fact not in accord with your preconceptions.  You are already living in a DEpression/recession - one of your own making.

bummer about the massive oil reserves aint it?  Peak oil is like climate change - hysteria for small minds.
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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."
 
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