Do you like Campbell Newman: Yes or No?

Date
    December 30, 2014
    Brisbane Times



Campbell Newman's popularity will be the deciding factor in next year's election, according to one expert.

The upcoming election will be a referendum on the Campbell Newman "experiment", one of the state's top political pundit's claims, as the campaign start date inches closer.

The lead-up to the election has already thrown up its distinct 'Queensland' distractions, with the return of both Pauline Hanson and John Bjelke-Petersen providing the sideshow to the main event. But senior lecturer in politics and journalism at the Griffith University School of Humanities, Paul Williams, said it would come down to one question:

Campbell Newman. Do you like him? Yes or no.

"This will be a polarising election, which is not great for minor parties, especially minor parties to the left," Dr Williams said.


"There always seems to be room for a minor party on the right in Queensland politics, but this is going to be a polarising election in the sense that this is going to be a referendum on the last three years of the Newman government – do you like what you have seen?

"The Newman style of leadership, coming in with no holds barred approach, a premier who came in to office from outside parliament – it will be a referendum on the whole experience. "

Dr Williams reiterated his prediction that Mr Newman had a 10 per cent chance of retaining Ashgrove.

He said Ms Hanson, who will run under the re-animated One Nation banner in the seat of Lockyer, would pick up about 20 to 25 per cent of the vote, but would not win.  He said the Palmer United Party, which Mr Bjelke-Petersen will lead in Queensland after it lost both its sitting MPs to the independent cross bench, would struggle to pick up any seats "having peaked some months ago".

Dr Williams expected Katter's Australian Party to retain at least two seats, with the possibility of a third. He also expected both Liz Cunningham and Peter Wellington, the only independents in the parliament who were elected as independents, to retain their seats, if they decide to re-contest.

But the rest, he believed, were up for grabs.

"I would expect a narrow LNP victory, I would expect them to be returned with seats in the high 40s or low 50s at best," he said.

"But I expect there to be a swing of between 8 and 10 per cent to the Labor party.  I think we will see more people than voted against Labor last election come back this time.  The LNP has such a strong base, it is difficult to see it not being returned.  But if we start to look at even an 11 per cent, or 12 per cent swing, which is not that much more than most people are predicting, suddenly they are in trouble.

"It's going to be interesting."

A date for the election is yet to be set, but it can be held any time before June 20.

so its looking like an LNP win - but with the premier losing his seat...

interesting - will they then parachute Newman into a safe seat and force a by-election? If not, who will be the next premier?

Well no because he has shown no social intelligence.

in a similar way to Abbott, he came in after a period of wasteful unsustainable spending by moronic female labor politicians who wouldn't be able to hold a job as treasurer managing a school P and C budget.

But what Campbell and Tony have failed to do (and why they will both get the flick) is to sit down in a calm and rational manner and ENGAGE the Australian public (or the Qld public in campbells case) that we are going to fix this but not in a haphazard, poorly explained and often irrational way.

If your mum and dad overspent on the bankcard and the bank was about to repossess the house and you were a teenager, youd be happy to all pull together to undo the damage PROVIDED they kept you informed and engaged and they had good communication skills.
Youd say, OK, no Christmas presents this year, I'll eat Aldi mince and baked beans.....lets all pull together.

But both Campbell and Tony have shown such awful communication skills, such aloofness and condescension. Such arrogance. They have not carried anyone with them.  The suburban battlers need to be engaged and you need a bonza good bloke with great rapport and communication skills to do this.

Abbott and Campbell simply have the completely wrong persona to engage the public. If they were the CEO of a small business, it would be a failure, because they do not understand leadership, people skills ,

They could have watched Winston Churchill with his
"pots and pans drive to build armaments to fight the hun" they could have carried the whole population forward in a drive against leftard intellectual BS merchants like Rudd .
Instead, they have stuffed up and the population will pay a terrible price.
That price will be learning to speak mandarin and work as slave labour for our new chinese overlords.
game of thrones indeed. My kids are learning an Asian language and I will hitch my boat to the winning team.   

Ex Dame Pansi wrote on Dec 30^th, 2014 at 8:51am:



this is what is so painful for intelligent people like myself, having to agree with numpties like Miss Pansi.
these foolish liberal leaders should never put their constituents in this untenable position.
its heart breaking 

Capital fellow.  Should move to Federal Politics.  A good Prime Minister candidate when Tony retires after breaking Johnny's 4 term record.....

polite_gandalf wrote on Dec 30^th, 2014 at 8:28am:

I agree; that is the most likely scenario. The opinion polling has been interesting, it has had the ALP level and even ahead, not bad for a party that got soundly defeated less than three years ago. The ALP could take back government if they run a solid campaign. I expect the LNP to hold on narrowly, losing about 30-35 seats, and the first order of business will be choosing a new Premier after Newman loses Ashgrove to Kate Jones.

Quote:

I do not expect Newman to return if he is defeated, especially if the swing against him in his own seat is greater than the statewide average. I expect a new LNP Premier will want to assert their own authority and start their own legacy, and not continue Newman's. It would be their best chance of winning in 2018.

Newman's not coming back if the LNP do not win. He should be smart enough to take the hint and leave politics altogether.

polite_gandalf wrote on Dec 30^th, 2014 at 8:28am:


There truly is no accounting for stupidity.

They'd be fools to give these turds a second term.

Any of them, not just 'No-Hoper' Newman.

aquascoot wrote on Dec 30^th, 2014 at 9:52am:


Is that why Newman won it in the first place?