Victorian State Election: Greens lead in inner city seats, new poll says

The Greens are poised to seize two inner city seats from the ALP at this month's state election, a new poll suggests.

A Lonergan research poll, commissioned by the Greens, shows the party is on track to win its first lower house seats in Victoria, leading Labor in both Melbourne and Richmond.


www.theage.com.au/victoria/victoria-state-election-2014/victorian-state-election...


The Lonergan poll of more than 400 voters in each seat shows the Greens' Kathleen Maltzahn ahead of the incumbent Labor MP Richard Wynne in Richmond 54-46 per cent, based on 2010 preference flows. Ms Maltzahn's primary vote is 39 per cent, with Mr Wynne on 29 per cent.

In Melbourne, Greens' Ellen Sandell leads Labor's Jennifer Kanis 53-47, with the pair attracting 40 and 30 per cent of the primary respectively.

Melbourne has long been considered by strategists as the most vulnerable for the ALP from the Greens threat.

Both seats fall within Greens federal MP Adam Bandt's territory. The automated poll was taken in late October and also found that between half and two-thirds had made up their minds on how they would vote.

Voters in the two seats want the state election to deliver a Labor government, albeit with the Greens in the balance of power.

The poll did not define if the balance of power was in the lower or upper house.

On the controversial issue of East West Link around half of voters – 52 per cent in Melbourne and 47 per cent in Richmond – backed the Greens' policy to not build the tunnel under any circumstances.

Just 22 per cent of voters backed Labor's plan not to build the tollway only if a court finds the contracts invalid.

Three out of 10 voters in Richmond, and 27 per cent of Melbourne voters want the road to be built.

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Nov 8^th, 2014 at 6:32am:



That the way ... underestimate voters, underestimate the Greens. Nothing happening here.

So you are claiming people are voting illegally since they are not Australian.

Is that correct?

Or are you claiming uptight racists are Australians and the rest are second class Australians.


Could you clarify.

In every society, there is usually situations where you get a conglomerate of idiots. Greens have those as shown by their poll. But I wouldn't get too excited. The polling number should have been up around 1000 people to have it be more accurate.

The latte sippers is exactly the Greens’ constituency and is why they always act conservatively and side with the Libs or pretend to act against the Libs where it matters.

That is why we have no Carbon Price and the Manus Is hellhole exists.

Quote:

This is a weakness of the poll. By not determining the actual preferences from the respondents, the poll is not as reliable.

We also do not know how the preferences will flow in this election. Liberal party preferences will be crucial.

At this stage, I would assess these seats as being too close to call. I would be surprised though if the Greens don't win any seats. Melbourne, Richmond and Brunswick are all possibilities for the Greens to win. (The poll by Lonergan Research did not include the seat of Brunswick.)

____ wrote on Nov 8^th, 2014 at 7:43am:

No, only 400 in each. That does not equate to 800 poll. That equals 800 polled in 2 polls. Not the same.

Im beginning to think that this is a poll for the greens followers only. Keep them excited and you will not lose them, but don't give the true reflection of the electorate as it may be bad news.

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Nov 8^th, 2014 at 6:32am:







i