Australian Politics Forum - Why I don’t believe in Catastrophic Climate Change

Kytro

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Re: Why I don’t believe in Catastrophic Climate Change
Reply #15 - Jul 26^th, 2014 at 10:20am

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 26^th, 2014 at 9:56am:

deny what science? the hypotheses that are wrong EVERY TIME? or the predictions based on these hypotheses that are wrong EVERY TIME.

Individual models don't make predictions, they make projections. They say "if this, then that". The models have continued to improve and yield better results over time, rather than worse. This reflects our growing understanding of interactions.

There is of course, always room for improvement, the models are not without weaknesses, but that does not mean they are not useful or provide accurate results.

A study by Myles Allen that compared climate forecasts that begin in 1996 with the actual temperatures observed since found that the simulations accurately predicted the warming experienced in the past decade to within a few hundredths of a degree.

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Grendel

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Re: Why I don’t believe in Catastrophic Climate Change
Reply #16 - Jul 26^th, 2014 at 10:22am

MOTR wrote on Jul 26^th, 2014 at 10:12am:

Interesting post, longy, since we've just lived through the hottest June on record. Which followed the hottest may on record.

http://s.imwx.com/dru/2014/07/8a143ff7-8290-4824-a4e1-95d73a02ac4a_320x180.jpg

If you posts stuff at least know what it is you are posting...
Hottest since when?
Hottest where?
What about those cooler spots eh?
What about the truth?

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longweekend58

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Re: Why I don’t believe in Catastrophic Climate Change
Reply #17 - Jul 26^th, 2014 at 10:22am

tickleandrose wrote on Jul 26^th, 2014 at 10:17am:

Even if you dont believe in climate change, the continued burning of fossile fuels is just not viable for the future of the human race. Already, since the start of the industrial evulotion, our planet's biodiversity had been decreasing sharply. the rate of extinction is now approach if not greater than of the dinosaurs 65 million years ago. In the past, it was caused by catastrophic events like asteroid strikes, volcanic eruptions. But we are living in between ice age period, life supposed to be prosper rather than dying out.

All over the Earth, you can see natural environments like forests, sea beds, farmable lands gave ways to large mines. And with increasing population, even a primary school student can see that this cannot go on forever.

We have to reduce our blueprint on this planet. We have to start seriously turn away from our dependence on non renewable energy to clean and renewable ones. Even if you dont belief in climate change, then you should still agree with this sensible transformation. Our ancestors survived many cycles of extinction through luck, and the ability to adapt. Well, if we want to advance our civilization to the next level, then we need to adapt and change again. Dont be the weak link.

in general I would agree that we need to reduce our environmental damage.

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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

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adelcrow Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 20133 everywhere Gender:	Re: Why I don’t believe in Catastrophic Climate Change Reply #18 - Jul 26^th, 2014 at 10:24am I'll stick with the worlds respected experts in the field who submit peer reviewed papers...the opinions of shock jocks, ultra conservative pollies and right wing forum junkies are less than worthless.
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longweekend58

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Re: Why I don’t believe in Catastrophic Climate Change
Reply #19 - Jul 26^th, 2014 at 10:24am

Kytro wrote on Jul 26^th, 2014 at 10:20am:

[quote author=longweekend58 link=1406331505/6#6 date=1406332569]
deny what science? the hypotheses that are wrong EVERY TIME? or the predictions based on these hypotheses that are wrong EVERY TIME.

Individual models don't make predictions, they make projections. They say "if this, then that". The models have continued to improve and yield better results over time, rather than worse. This reflects our growing understanding of interactions.

There is of course, always room for improvement, the models are not without weaknesses, but that does not mean they are not useful or provide accurate results.

A study by Myles Allen that compared climate forecasts that begin in 1996 with the actual temperatures observed since found that the simulations accurately predicted the warming experienced in the past decade to within a few hundredths of a degree.[/quote]

and that is the kind of nonsense that discredits ACC proponents. that 'study' said the models were perfect as long as you took into account everything we couldn't predict or didn't know about. IN other words, they were dead wrong. the current 17year pause in global temperature was no predicted by a single model and that is a massive massive FAIL.

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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

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tickleandrose Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 4201 Gender:	Re: Why I don’t believe in Catastrophic Climate Change Reply #20 - Jul 26^th, 2014 at 10:26am Quote: in general I would agree that we need to reduce our environmental damage. Back to top And thats a common ground that we can all work towards.
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Grendel

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Re: Why I don’t believe in Catastrophic Climate Change
Reply #21 - Jul 26^th, 2014 at 10:26am

Were May and June the Hottest on Record? Actual Data says No

Written by CCD Editor on 22 July 2014.

Quote:

Why is it that the folks in the blogosphere are doing the actual homework that our lazy journalists should be doing? It can't be for lack of money because the data is available to anyone looking for the truth.

http://www.climatechangedispatch.com/were-may-and-june-the-hottest-on-record-act...

Quote:

According to the much more accurate and unbiased satellite data, neither May nor June were even close to the hottest ever; A fact that the NOAA knew but chose to leave out of its press release.

Quote:

More accurate satellite data which actually measures troposphere temperatures, shows that NOAA’s claims of record heat are incorrect. NOAA’s failure to disclose this information in their press release shows that they are intentionally misleading the public.

Quote:

Look, there’s too much at stake for alarmists to just let the data speak for itself. They know that if the religion of climate change fails in the eyes of the public, then progressivism suffers a serious blow, and that’s something that they can’t let happen.

So much for science.

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Kytro

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Re: Why I don’t believe in Catastrophic Climate Change
Reply #22 - Jul 26^th, 2014 at 10:52am

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 26^th, 2014 at 10:24am:

and that is the kind of nonsense that discredits ACC proponents. that 'study' said the models were perfect as long as you took into account everything we couldn't predict or didn't know about. IN other words, they were dead wrong. the current 17year pause in global temperature was no predicted by a single model and that is a massive massive FAIL.

The slowing rate of increase surface temperatures has happened before, and will again, you can't single out a period and claim the average global temperatures are not rising.

In any case "slightly wrong" isn't anything near "dead wrong".

It predicted that the decade ending in December 2012 would be a quarter of degree warmer than the decade ending in August 1996 – and this proved almost precisely correct.

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MOTR

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Re: Why I don’t believe in Catastrophic Climate Change
Reply #23 - Jul 26^th, 2014 at 11:00am

Grendel wrote on Jul 26^th, 2014 at 10:22am:

MOTR wrote on Jul 26^th, 2014 at 10:12am:

Interesting post, longy, since we've just lived through the hottest June on record. Which followed the hottest may on record.

http://s.imwx.com/dru/2014/07/8a143ff7-8290-4824-a4e1-95d73a02ac4a_320x180.jpg

If you posts stuff at least know what it is you are posting...
Hottest since when?
Hottest where?
What about those cooler spots eh?
What about the truth?

Global and since we began recording temperatures.

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Hunt says Coalition accepts IPCC findings

"What does this mean? It means that we need to do practical things that actually reduce emissions."

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longweekend58

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Re: Why I don’t believe in Catastrophic Climate Change
Reply #24 - Jul 26^th, 2014 at 11:04am

Kytro wrote on Jul 26^th, 2014 at 10:52am:

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 26^th, 2014 at 10:24am:

and that is the kind of nonsense that discredits ACC proponents. that 'study' said the models were perfect as long as you took into account everything we couldn't predict or didn't know about. IN other words, they were dead wrong. the current 17year pause in global temperature was no predicted by a single model and that is a massive massive FAIL.

The slowing rate of increase surface temperatures has happened before, and will again, you can't single out a period and claim the average global temperatures are not rising.

In any case "slightly wrong" isn't anything near "dead wrong".

It predicted that the decade ending in December 2012 would be a quarter of degree warmer than the decade ending in August 1996 – and this proved almost precisely correct.

it isn't a 'slowing rate of increase'. it is the total ABSENCE of increase. it is also a pause complete unpredicted in the climate models. this pause in warming is the death knee to the models.

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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

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longweekend58

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Re: Why I don’t believe in Catastrophic Climate Change
Reply #25 - Jul 26^th, 2014 at 11:12am

MOTR wrote on Jul 26^th, 2014 at 11:00am:

Grendel wrote on Jul 26^th, 2014 at 10:22am:

MOTR wrote on Jul 26^th, 2014 at 10:12am:

Interesting post, longy, since we've just lived through the hottest June on record. Which followed the hottest may on record.

http://s.imwx.com/dru/2014/07/8a143ff7-8290-4824-a4e1-95d73a02ac4a_320x180.jpg

If you posts stuff at least know what it is you are posting...
Hottest since when?
Hottest where?
What about those cooler spots eh?
What about the truth?

Global and since we began recording temperatures.

http://s.imwx.com/dru/2014/07/8a143ff7-8290-4824-a4e1-95d73a02ac4a_320x180.jpg

wow 30 years of temperature data and you get excited???

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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

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MOTR

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Re: Why I don’t believe in Catastrophic Climate Change
Reply #26 - Jul 26^th, 2014 at 11:22am

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 26^th, 2014 at 11:04am:

Kytro wrote on Jul 26^th, 2014 at 10:52am:

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 26^th, 2014 at 10:24am:

and that is the kind of nonsense that discredits ACC proponents. that 'study' said the models were perfect as long as you took into account everything we couldn't predict or didn't know about. IN other words, they were dead wrong. the current 17year pause in global temperature was no predicted by a single model and that is a massive massive FAIL.

The slowing rate of increase surface temperatures has happened before, and will again, you can't single out a period and claim the average global temperatures are not rising.

In any case "slightly wrong" isn't anything near "dead wrong".

It predicted that the decade ending in December 2012 would be a quarter of degree warmer than the decade ending in August 1996 – and this proved almost precisely correct.

it isn't a 'slowing rate of increase'. it is the total ABSENCE of increase. it is also a pause complete unpredicted in the climate models. this pause in warming is the death knee to the models.

The oceans are warming, longy and the atmosphere is catching up. When the El Niño comes, those who have been ignoring the oceans and cherry picking dates to construct a statistical pause are going to be outed as the propagandist they are.

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Hunt says Coalition accepts IPCC findings

"What does this mean? It means that we need to do practical things that actually reduce emissions."

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MOTR

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Re: Why I don’t believe in Catastrophic Climate Change
Reply #27 - Jul 26^th, 2014 at 11:31am

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 26^th, 2014 at 10:16am:

MOTR wrote on Jul 26^th, 2014 at 10:12am:

Interesting post, longy, since we've just lived through the hottest June on record. Which followed the hottest may on record.

http://s.imwx.com/dru/2014/07/8a143ff7-8290-4824-a4e1-95d73a02ac4a_320x180.jpg

a record of a few decades at best.

and Ive been hearing of these 'hottest since...' records for years now but amazingly when the final outcomes are tallied up the annual change in temperature is NIL. even the UK METs global temperature records say the same thing - no warming.

but isn't it time for you to tell us how MH17 was a US plot? After all, isn't it amazing how many climate hysterics are also conspiracy theorists!!!

If you won't to quote the UK Met, how about you read their papers. You'll find your ridiculous argument is on borrowed time.

Quote:

It is not possible to explain the recent lack of surface warming solely by reductions in the total energy received by the planet. Radiative forcing by greenhouse gases has continued unabated; that heat is being held in the system but is not manifest as a rise in global mean surface temperature.
Observations of ocean heat content and of sea-level rise suggest that this additional heat has been absorbed in the ocean. Changes in the exchange of heat between the upper and deep ocean appear to have caused at least part of the pause in surface warming, and observations suggest that the Pacific Ocean may play a key role.

The scientific questions posed by the current pause in global surface warming require us to understand in much greater detail the flows of energy into, out of, and around the Earth system.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/q/0/Paper2_recent_pause_in_global_warming....

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Hunt says Coalition accepts IPCC findings

"What does this mean? It means that we need to do practical things that actually reduce emissions."

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longweekend58

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Re: Why I don’t believe in Catastrophic Climate Change
Reply #28 - Jul 26^th, 2014 at 11:31am

MOTR wrote on Jul 26^th, 2014 at 11:22am:

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 26^th, 2014 at 11:04am:

Kytro wrote on Jul 26^th, 2014 at 10:52am:

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 26^th, 2014 at 10:24am:

and that is the kind of nonsense that discredits ACC proponents. that 'study' said the models were perfect as long as you took into account everything we couldn't predict or didn't know about. IN other words, they were dead wrong. the current 17year pause in global temperature was no predicted by a single model and that is a massive massive FAIL.

The slowing rate of increase surface temperatures has happened before, and will again, you can't single out a period and claim the average global temperatures are not rising.

In any case "slightly wrong" isn't anything near "dead wrong".

It predicted that the decade ending in December 2012 would be a quarter of degree warmer than the decade ending in August 1996 – and this proved almost precisely correct.

it isn't a 'slowing rate of increase'. it is the total ABSENCE of increase. it is also a pause complete unpredicted in the climate models. this pause in warming is the death knee to the models.

The oceans are warming, longy and the atmosphere is catching up. When the El Niño comes, those who have been ignoring the oceans and cherry picking dates to construct a statistical pause are going to be outed as the propagandist they are.

the oceans are warming??? haven't you noticed those inflammatory graphs of ocean warming never use degrees but instead use joules? that is because the warming is to date 0.0002 degrees and even that is arguable.

my problem with you position is that you don't even accept the current pause in warming which is an established fact. how can you be taken seriously when you adopt that posture?

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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

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longweekend58

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Re: Why I don’t believe in Catastrophic Climate Change
Reply #29 - Jul 26^th, 2014 at 11:33am

MOTR wrote on Jul 26^th, 2014 at 11:31am:

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 26^th, 2014 at 10:16am:

MOTR wrote on Jul 26^th, 2014 at 10:12am:

Interesting post, longy, since we've just lived through the hottest June on record. Which followed the hottest may on record.

http://s.imwx.com/dru/2014/07/8a143ff7-8290-4824-a4e1-95d73a02ac4a_320x180.jpg

a record of a few decades at best.

and Ive been hearing of these 'hottest since...' records for years now but amazingly when the final outcomes are tallied up the annual change in temperature is NIL. even the UK METs global temperature records say the same thing - no warming.

but isn't it time for you to tell us how MH17 was a US plot? After all, isn't it amazing how many climate hysterics are also conspiracy theorists!!!

If you won't to quote the UK Met, how about you read their papers. You'll find your ridiculous argument is on borrowed time.

Quote:

It is not possible to explain the recent lack of surface warming solely by reductions in the total energy received by the planet. Radiative forcing by greenhouse gases has continued unabated; that heat is being held in the system but is not manifest as a rise in global mean surface temperature.
Observations of ocean heat content and of sea-level rise suggest that this additional heat has been absorbed in the ocean. Changes in the exchange of heat between the upper and deep ocean appear to have caused at least part of the pause in surface warming, and observations suggest that the Pacific Ocean may play a key role.

The scientific questions posed by the current pause in global surface warming require us to understand in much greater detail the flows of energy into, out of, and around the Earth system.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/q/0/Paper2_recent_pause_in_global_warming....

for goodness sake, READ YOUR OWN QUOTE. the MET states that the pause in warming is REAL. it took them two years to finally admit the blatantly obvious but you still don't.

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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

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