Fit of Absent Mindeness wrote on Jul 24^th, 2014 at 11:56am:


they wont lose QLD. they have too far to travel and memories of labor are too recent. WA election is a long time away as is the federal election.

Bam wrote on Jul 24^th, 2014 at 12:17pm:



you must of read that on IA where just for context they were predicting the coalition to lose 17 seats in QLD at the LAST election.

gotta love IA.  couldn't predict a winner with a time machine.

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 24^th, 2014 at 12:02pm:

The memories of Newman are even more recent.

18.5% swing in Stafford. This is going to translate to a swing against the government at the next election of between 10% and 12%. I still expect the LNP to be returned, but with a much smaller majority and without Newman as leader (he will lose Ashgrove).

The Coalition seem to be governing in much the same way that the captain of the Titanic chose to navigate. "Ignore the iceberg, we're unsinkable! Stay on course! Stay on course!"

We don't need drink-driving jumped-up pubic servants to be running the Liberal party thank you.

Bam wrote on Jul 24^th, 2014 at 12:27pm:


so you agree with me???  that's a first.  I have said all along that Newman will lose a large number of seats but the swing needs to be 16% or so and that is a big ask for a first-term govt where a lot of people remember the last govt.  but congrats on not doing the usual nonsense and extrapolating a mid-term by-election into a full one.  bye-elections usually have a protest element in it that doesn't get repeated in the general election.  You were generous.  I expect a swing of 11-14%

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 24^th, 2014 at 12:36pm:

I've never said anything different, and considering I am on record as making considered predictions on the LNP's chances for longer than you have, it is more accurate to say that you agree with me, not the other way around.

Quote:

Where? I have never seen you mention a 16% swing before, and certainly not without any corroborating evidence. It's also wrong - the LNP would need to lose 36 seats for the ALP to form a majority government, and that requires a uniform swing of about 11.2%. My best guess is that the ALP will go close to that but just fall short by a handful of seats. My guess is that the LNP will lose about 30 seats and retain a very slim majority of no more than two or three seats (the Queensland Parliament has several MPs on the crossbenches).

Quote:

If the new government were doing a good job and not doing anything controversial, then that would certainly be the case. But this government have produced a few epic fails on their handling of the judiciary that would allow political corruption to take hold, and as far as corruption is concerned the people of Queensland have very long memories.

Do not make the mistake of assuming that the perceived sins of the previous government are all the voters will consider when choosing their vote and that anything a new government does in their first term does not matter. If it was true, there would not have been an 18.5% swing against the government in Stafford. It's not for no reason that the government have recorded huge swings against them in byelections. If they were doing the right thing without making too many egregious mistakes, the government would have retained their gains, as they did in the Brisbane by-election (a 3% swing TO the LNP in Brisbane after Bligh left politics).

Quote:

Seems you're finally starting to realise that I assess these things fairly. I always expected a protest vote in Stafford, given that the Newman government have made numerous controversial decisions.

My prediction of a 10%-12% swing against the LNP at the next election is based on current opinion polling for the whole state. I expect to modify my prediction over time as the election approaches and circumstances change.

Your prediction of an 11% to 14% swing needs reassessment. If the swing was in the 11% to 14% range and it was uniform, it would be bad news for the LNP government. A uniform 11% swing would see the LNP lose their majority. A 14% swing would see Labor win by about 8 seats (with about 44 seats gained - the same as what they lost at the last election).

This is why I went with a lower prediction.

Bam wrote on Jul 24^th, 2014 at 2:19pm:


Since I have been making political predictions for 44 years your assertion that you have been doing it for longer is either false or utterly irrelevant.

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 24^th, 2014 at 11:53am:



You grow more delusional by the day.