Apparently statistics were invented because graphology can be misleading.

progressiveslol wrote on Jul 3^rd, 2014 at 11:24am:

ooh, fraud ay!??! 

-let's all vote for copper internet because the mining giants convinced us libs know best in all situations!!

greggerypeccary wrote on Jul 3^rd, 2014 at 12:44pm:


That's right, greggery, hot on the heels of the 2nd Warmest April ever recorded.

greggerypeccary wrote on Jul 3^rd, 2014 at 4:17pm:


Correct, greggerypeccary. Warmest May ever recorded. I don't like to blow my own trumpet, but I've always considered myself quite intuitive, so I'm going to go out on a limb here and suggest there is a point you'd like to make.

greggerypeccary wrote on Jul 3^rd, 2014 at 5:02pm:


Just thought I'd remind people that our planet is getting warmer.

greggerypeccary wrote on Jul 3^rd, 2014 at 6:03pm:


Are you questioning the records, greggery? What do you know that the scientists are not telling us?

MOTR wrote on Jul 3^rd, 2014 at 6:14pm:



No.

Not questioning the records.

How long have they been kept again?   

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Jul 3^rd, 2014 at 6:20pm:


Kind of like the same way you might be obsessed with a fire alarm or a cancer prognosis.

Any idea why Antarctic sea ice is growing, progs?

Can you explain the science behind this phenomenon.

greggerypeccary wrote on Jul 3^rd, 2014 at 8:29pm:


To remind folks like yourself the planet is warming.

I'm assuming you are aware of the risks that come with the rate of warming we are currently experiencing.

greggerypeccary wrote on Jul 3^rd, 2014 at 9:10pm:



Was this question too difficult, MOTR?

greggerypeccary wrote on Jul 3^rd, 2014 at 9:10pm:


What do you mean by normal, greggery? Are you suggesting the warming that we are currently experiencing is a natural variation, or are you suggesting the planet has experienced similar warming trends in the past, and therefore we have nothing to worry about?

There is no scientific evidence of a similarly rapid or large natural climate change over the last 11,000 years.

Quote:


The difficulty, greggery, comes down to what you mean by normal.

MOTR wrote on Jul 4^th, 2014 at 6:20am:



That's because we don't have enough official, accurate records.

You've admitted that yourself.

When asked how long we've had records, you said: "Since 1880. Before that you are looking at very sparse local records or paleoclimatology."

You're relying on one method of measuring the temperature since 1880, and a different method for everything before that date (approximately 4.5 billion years).

From two completely different methods of measuring temperature, and a comparison  between 134 years and 4.5 billion years, you've determined that it's not possible that "the warming that we are currently experiencing is a natural variation".

You're kidding, right?

And if you're not kidding, how do you honestly expect to be taken seriously?

Seriously?

MOTR wrote on Jul 4^th, 2014 at 8:38am:



Is it possible that "the warming that we are currently experiencing is a natural variation"?

greggerypeccary wrote on Jul 4^th, 2014 at 8:40am:


What is natural variation?  Is that something god does ?

Any variation has a cause, a reason why it is different from previous recordings.  Anyone claiming a variation needs to come up with a reason why it is varying. If not co2 levels, then what ?


"Natural variation" is a lazy excuse, because it implies the person doesnt need to justify it.

MOTR wrote on Jul 4^th, 2014 at 8:51am:



For over 4.5 billion years there are no records, yet you've come up with a figure.

How, exactly?

MOTR wrote on Jul 4^th, 2014 at 10:21am:



How did you come up with "less than 1%"?

Is it a guess?

MOTR wrote on Jul 4^th, 2014 at 11:20am:




The same report that admits there is strong evidence for enhanced solar forcing?

greggerypeccary wrote on Jul 4^th, 2014 at 11:31am:





Quote:

Well I said it will be looked at. This is just the beginning now that people know what to look for. Thank Steve Goddard

Wow, look at those BOM adjustments – trends up by two degrees C!

The mystery of Australian temperature adjustments

Ken Stewart has been checking the Australian BOM official ACORN minima data against the raw data. This week he highlights the six very strange cases of Brisbane Airport, Amberley RAAF, Dubbo, Rutherglen, Rabbit Flat, and Carnarvon. In all these places the adjustments change the trend by more than 2 whole degrees C. It’s a kind of hyper-homogenization.


Thermometers are supposed to be accurate to a tenth of a degree. Australian average trends are sometimes calculated to one hundredth of a degree. What then do we make of adjustments that change the trends by a whopping 2 degrees, and decades after the data came in? The only thing we know for sure about Australian temperatures is that we need an independent audit. Why is it left to volunteers to check? Surely the Greens want good data too?

Some of these stations are isolated outposts, so theoretically they are the heavyweights on Australian area-weighted averages. The map scales can be a bit deceptive. In outback Australia the nearest neighbours can all be 500 km away (300 miles). Some dots on the map are not so much a town as a motel and a gas station. Sometimes one lonely thermometer gets the job of estimating temperatures across thousands of square kilometers. This applies to Rabbit Flat, and we’ll discuss that in a different post.

We’ve talked about the extraordinary case of Rutherglen before, where a cooling trend across a whole region becomes a homogenized warming one. And both I and Jennifer Marohasy have discussed the extreme oddness of Amberley.

But Carnarvon provides new material for playing Guess-why-this-got-homogenized? In the case of Carnarvon (see below) the raw trend shows an ever so slight warming over the last century, something like 0.2C, but the all-new adjusted “high-quality” ACORN trend is rising instead at around 2.2C per century.You might think Carnarvon was the aberrant outlier — a station that was different to the rest of the region so it’s been adjusted to fit. Except the original raw Carnarvon trend was virtually the same as the raw average of all its nearest neighbours (bar one). So all those must be flawed too? Well,  the BOM didn’t think so, because the adjusted trends of neighbouring towns are only warming at a modest half a degree a century, while Carnarvon is ripping along at more than 2 degrees.

I’ve spoken to Ken Stewart, and he’s just baffled about all six stations. Perhaps there is a reason for these drastic adjustments. But without detailed and credible answers, how does a rational person have confidence in the current almighty ACORN set?  There are too many mysteries (like, say, the hottest-ever day being in Albany, an obvious error that still hasn’t been detected by their “expert” peer review).

Quote:


more
http://joannenova.com.au/2014/07/wow-look-at-those-bom-adjustments-trends-up-by-...

The warming trend is all bogas people. A fraud on humanity

greggerypeccary wrote on Jul 4^th, 2014 at 8:40am:


Don't be a spoil-sport, Greg.

You know damn well the International Socialists are hoping to use the trumped-up nonsense about man-made Global Warming as a means of putting the brakes on Western Capitalist industry and wealth-creation in order to help the Third World catch up with us.