Australian Politics Forum - Climate Heat Record While Abbott Fiddles

rabbitoh08

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Re: Climate Heat Record While Abbott Fiddles
Reply #60 - Jun 4^th, 2014 at 12:02am

IQSRLOW wrote on Jun 2^nd, 2014 at 5:56pm:

lee wrote on Jun 2^nd, 2014 at 5:51pm:

rabbitoh08 wrote on Jun 2^nd, 2014 at 5:27pm:

Don't make things up

Just one paper- there are others-

http://www.soest.hawaii.edu/MET/Faculty/bwang/bw/paper/wang36.pdf

Shhhh, don't bring facts into this. The wailing and gnashing of teeth will be too much to bear.

What facts did he bring into this?

Can you explain?

He seemed to be claiming that El Nino is responsible for multi-decadal global warming.

How does that work?

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rabbitoh08

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Re: Climate Heat Record While Abbott Fiddles
Reply #61 - Jun 4^th, 2014 at 12:05am

King FriYAY II wrote on Jun 3^rd, 2014 at 10:09am:

rabbitoh08 wrote on Jun 2^nd, 2014 at 4:58pm:

King FriYAY II wrote on Jun 2^nd, 2014 at 4:04pm:

rabbitoh08 wrote on Jun 2^nd, 2014 at 12:47pm:

King FriYAY II wrote on Jun 2^nd, 2014 at 12:33pm:

rabbitoh08 wrote on Jun 2^nd, 2014 at 12:27pm:

King FriYAY II wrote on Jun 2^nd, 2014 at 11:17am:

____ wrote on Jun 2^nd, 2014 at 10:00am:

Looks like the next election will be over AGW !

Is there going to be a "world" election?

LOL

Great rains along the entire MDB catchment over the weekend. From Far Nth NSW to the Vic ALPs.

Awesome hey?

And interesting to see the SOI moving higher into positive, don't ya reckon?!!

On which planet is "the SOI moving higher into positive"? Not this one:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/soi.gif
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/soi2.shtml

The tropical Pacific Ocean continues a general trend toward El Niño, with just over half of the climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggesting El Niño thresholds will be exceeded by August. An El Niño ALERT remains in place, indicating at least a 70% chance of an El Niño developing in 2014.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

Elders is more up to date, it is half way through 2014 you know... Shocked

Anyway, the SOI is in positive and that's a good thing. Been in + territory for the last 6 readings. The last 2 reading higher than the 3rd last.

Let's hope it stays there. Cool

I gave you the BOM data to May 2014. It is exactly the same data you will get from Elders.

SOI is essentially neutral at the moment - varying between slightly positive and slightly negative.

However, as quoted for you earlier, The tropical Pacific Ocean continues a general trend toward El Niño, with just over half of the climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggesting El Niño thresholds will be exceeded by August

El Nino is coming. Probably sooner than later.

OK you must be looking at the weekly stats.

I was looking at the monthly average – and the last 6 are all positive.

Looking at the weekly results, my comment...

“And interesting to see the SOI moving higher into positive, don't ya reckon” is even more correct, moving from

–12

to almost

+10

.

So I’ll try and stay positive, you can pray for the worst and make crap up….. Sad

The latest update from 20 May says:

Tropical Pacific Ocean edges further toward El Niño

The tropical Pacific Ocean continues a general trend toward El Niño, with just over half of the climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggesting El Niño thresholds will be exceeded by August.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

Not sure how you can read into that:
“And interesting to see the SOI moving higher into positive, don't ya reckon”

Blaa blaa blaa

-12

to

+10

- are you that dumb?

Huh

Read the links.

BOM says:
Tropical Pacific Ocean edges further toward El Niño

BOM says:
The tropical Pacific Ocean continues a general trend toward El Niño, with just over half of the climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggesting El Niño thresholds will be exceeded by August.

-12 to 10 is a minor variation. Stop being so ignorant - try to actually read the information that is being presented to you.

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OldnCrusty Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 855 Gender:	Re: Climate Heat Record While Abbott Fiddles Reply #62 - Jun 4^th, 2014 at 7:55am I didn't realise there were so many nutters in this world, and they are on both sides of this debate.
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King FriYAY II Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 2109	Re: Climate Heat Record While Abbott Fiddles Reply #63 - Jun 4^th, 2014 at 10:48am rabbitoh08 wrote on Jun 4^th, 2014 at 12:05am: -12 to 10 Is a move to the positive, yes or no? has smacking maths changed since i went to school? From -12 to +10, is that a move into a higher positive or not? Can someone help me out here, it seems the Rabbit has no maths comprehension at all!!
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lee

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Re: Climate Heat Record While Abbott Fiddles
Reply #64 - Jun 4^th, 2014 at 11:50am

Rabitoh08,

As I said there are others.

Collins - 'El Nino or La Nina-like Climate Change'

http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-004-0478-x#page-1

or

'That's because Earth's temperature is already rising, so any year with a boost from El Niño could easily break records. [How El Niño Causes Wild Weather All Over the Globe (Infographic)]

The warmest years in the past decade, 2005 and 2010, followed weak El Niño years, according to NASA temperature records.

This year's predicted El Niño could increase global surface temperatures by 0.18 to 0.36 degrees Fahrenheit (0.1 to 0.2 degrees Celsius), depending on the intensity of the event, said Wenju Cai, a climate scientist at CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, a government research organization in Aspendale, Australia.'

'Most of this stored ocean heat comes from sunlight, but the release adds to the overall rise in temperatures caused by global warming, Cai said. "There's no doubt the underlying trend is caused by greenhouse warming," he said.

"Usually, the increase occurs more toward the latter part of the El Niño, when there is a mini-global warming," said Kevin Trenberth, a climate scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado.'

http://news.sp@m/earth/weather-extreme-events/brace-for-record-heat-as-el-nino-a...

Some scientists say that the increased CO2 is driving greater El Nino frequency- Timmerman, Cai

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v398/n6729/abs/398694a0.html

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v4/n2/full/nclimate2100.html

' What is the relationship between El Niño/La Niña and global warming?
The jury is still out on this. Are we likely to see more El Niños because of global warming? Will they be more intense? These are the main research questions facing the science community today. Research will help us separate the natural climate variability from any trends due to man's activities. We cannot figure out the "fingerprint" of global warming if we cannot sort out what the natural variability does. We also need to look at the link between decadal changes in natural variability and global warming. At this time we can't preclude the possibility of links but it would be too early to definitely say there is a link.'

http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/lanina_new_faq.html

So, in reality my best estimate is as good as your best estimate.

So if increasing CO2 is causing greater frequency and severity - this coming El Nino should it occur should be greater than 1982 or 1987.

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« Last Edit: Jun 4^th, 2014 at 12:04pm by lee »

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rabbitoh08

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Re: Climate Heat Record While Abbott Fiddles
Reply #65 - Jun 4^th, 2014 at 12:20pm

King FriYAY II wrote on Jun 4^th, 2014 at 10:48am:

rabbitoh08 wrote on Jun 4^th, 2014 at 12:05am:

-12 to 10

Is a move to the positive, yes or no?

Huh

has smacking maths changed since i went to school?

From -12 to +10, is that a move into a higher positive or not? Can someone help me out here, it seems the Rabbit has no maths comprehension at all!!

Huh

Read the links.

BOM says:
Tropical Pacific Ocean edges further toward El Niño

BOM says:
The tropical Pacific Ocean continues a general trend toward El Niño, with just over half of the climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggesting El Niño thresholds will be exceeded by August.

-12 to 10 is a minor variation. One month of +ve SOI means nothing. SOI fluctuates between +ve and -ve regularly. There has been no SUSTAINED +ve SOI since the end of the last La Nina, when there was and extended period of +ve SOI readings

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rabbitoh08

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Re: Climate Heat Record While Abbott Fiddles
Reply #66 - Jun 4^th, 2014 at 12:23pm

lee wrote on Jun 4^th, 2014 at 11:50am:

Rabitoh08,

As I said there are others.

Collins - 'El Nino or La Nina-like Climate Change'

http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-004-0478-x#page-1

or

'That's because Earth's temperature is already rising, so any year with a boost from El Niño could easily break records. [How El Niño Causes Wild Weather All Over the Globe (Infographic)]

The warmest years in the past decade, 2005 and 2010, followed weak El Niño years, according to NASA temperature records.

This year's predicted El Niño could increase global surface temperatures by 0.18 to 0.36 degrees Fahrenheit (0.1 to 0.2 degrees Celsius), depending on the intensity of the event, said Wenju Cai, a climate scientist at CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, a government research organization in Aspendale, Australia.'

'Most of this stored ocean heat comes from sunlight, but the release adds to the overall rise in temperatures caused by global warming, Cai said. "There's no doubt the underlying trend is caused by greenhouse warming," he said.

"Usually, the increase occurs more toward the latter part of the El Niño, when there is a mini-global warming," said Kevin Trenberth, a climate scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado.'

http://news.sp@m/earth/weather-extreme-events/brace-for-record-heat-as-el-nino-a...

Some scientists say that the increased CO2 is driving greater El Nino frequency- Timmerman, Cai

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v398/n6729/abs/398694a0.html

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v4/n2/full/nclimate2100.html

' What is the relationship between El Niño/La Niña and global warming?
The jury is still out on this. Are we likely to see more El Niños because of global warming? Will they be more intense? These are the main research questions facing the science community today. Research will help us separate the natural climate variability from any trends due to man's activities. We cannot figure out the "fingerprint" of global warming if we cannot sort out what the natural variability does. We also need to look at the link between decadal changes in natural variability and global warming. At this time we can't preclude the possibility of links but it would be too early to definitely say there is a link.'

http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/lanina_new_faq.html

So, in reality my best estimate is as good as your best estimate.

So if increasing CO2 is causing greater frequency and severity - this coming El Nino should it occur should be greater than 1982 or 1987.

You claimed that El Nino was an alternative explanation as to why the planet is warming, as opposed to AGW.

None of the papers you are quoting suggest this. They are all addressing the impact of AGW on ENSO. Not that ENSO is the cause of the observed warming of recent decades

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lee

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Re: Climate Heat Record While Abbott Fiddles
Reply #67 - Jun 4^th, 2014 at 12:42pm

See it how you will.

I see in The Australian there is a report -

' AUSTRALIA’S peak body of earth scientists has declared itself unable to publish a position statement on climate change due to the deep divisions within its membership on the issue.

After more than five years of debate and two false starts, Geological Society of Australia president Laurie Hutton said a statement on climate change was too difficult to achieve.'

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/health-science/earth-scientists-split-on-cl...

Couldn't get a 97% consensus. Wink

Because The Aust is generally paywalled you can google search

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rabbitoh08

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Re: Climate Heat Record While Abbott Fiddles
Reply #68 - Jun 4^th, 2014 at 12:44pm

lee wrote on Jun 4^th, 2014 at 12:42pm:

See it how you will.

I see in The Australian there is a report -

' AUSTRALIA’S peak body of earth scientists has declared itself unable to publish a position statement on climate change due to the deep divisions within its membership on the issue.

After more than five years of debate and two false starts, Geological Society of Australia president Laurie Hutton said a statement on climate change was too difficult to achieve.'

Couldn't get a 97% consensus. Wink

See what how I will?!?!?

You implied that somehow ENSO is responsible for the multi-decadal global warming being observed.

That is nonsense. Noe of the papers you have cited claim that.

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rabbitoh08

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Re: Climate Heat Record While Abbott Fiddles
Reply #69 - Jun 4^th, 2014 at 12:55pm

lee wrote on Jun 4^th, 2014 at 12:42pm:

See it how you will.

I see in The Australian there is a report -

' AUSTRALIA’S peak body of earth scientists has declared itself unable to publish a position statement on climate change due to the deep divisions within its membership on the issue.

After more than five years of debate and two false starts, Geological Society of Australia president Laurie Hutton said a statement on climate change was too difficult to achieve.'

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/health-science/earth-scientists-split-on-cl...

Couldn't get a 97% consensus. Wink

Because The Aust is generally paywalled you can google search

So, a body which has a majority of it's membership being from the minerals sector has declared itself unable to publish a position statement on climate change. Why do you find this relevant in any way?

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King FriYAY II

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Re: Climate Heat Record While Abbott Fiddles
Reply #70 - Jun 4^th, 2014 at 1:07pm

rabbitoh08 wrote on Jun 4^th, 2014 at 12:20pm:

King FriYAY II wrote on Jun 4^th, 2014 at 10:48am:

rabbitoh08 wrote on Jun 4^th, 2014 at 12:05am:

-12 to 10

Is a move to the positive, yes or no?

Huh

has smacking maths changed since i went to school?

From -12 to +10, is that a move into a higher positive or not? Can someone help me out here, it seems the Rabbit has no maths comprehension at all!!

Huh

Any one? -12 to +10, a move into positive or not? Huh

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rabbitoh08

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Re: Climate Heat Record While Abbott Fiddles
Reply #71 - Jun 4^th, 2014 at 1:11pm

King FriYAY II wrote on Jun 4^th, 2014 at 1:07pm:

rabbitoh08 wrote on Jun 4^th, 2014 at 12:20pm:

King FriYAY II wrote on Jun 4^th, 2014 at 10:48am:

rabbitoh08 wrote on Jun 4^th, 2014 at 12:05am:

-12 to 10

Is a move to the positive, yes or no?

Huh

has smacking maths changed since i went to school?

From -12 to +10, is that a move into a higher positive or not? Can someone help me out here, it seems the Rabbit has no maths comprehension at all!!

Huh

Any one? -12 to +10, a move into positive or not? Huh

A minor one month fluctuation. Relevant or not? Huh

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King FriYAY II

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Re: Climate Heat Record While Abbott Fiddles
Reply #72 - Jun 4^th, 2014 at 1:14pm

rabbitoh08 wrote on Jun 4^th, 2014 at 1:11pm:

King FriYAY II wrote on Jun 4^th, 2014 at 1:07pm:

rabbitoh08 wrote on Jun 4^th, 2014 at 12:20pm:

King FriYAY II wrote on Jun 4^th, 2014 at 10:48am:

rabbitoh08 wrote on Jun 4^th, 2014 at 12:05am:

-12 to 10

Is a move to the positive, yes or no?

Huh

has smacking maths changed since i went to school?

From -12 to +10, is that a move into a higher positive or not? Can someone help me out here, it seems the Rabbit has no maths comprehension at all!!

Huh

Any one? -12 to +10, a move into positive or not? Huh

A minor one month fluctuation. Relevant or not? Huh

-12 to +10, use a smacking calculator if you have to.... Roll Eyes

A move into positive or not?

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progressiveslol

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Re: Climate Heat Record While Abbott Fiddles
Reply #73 - Jul 6^th, 2014 at 9:28pm

progressiveslol wrote on Jun 2^nd, 2014 at 3:12pm:

lee wrote on Jun 2^nd, 2014 at 2:57pm:

I see we may have an El Nino, probably not a Super El Nino.

I also see Trenberth is moving to a position where El Ninos provide a 'stepped' global warming. Something like SKS 'Skeptic Belief' graph.

I haven't seen any characterisation of El Ninos being caused by an increase in CO2.

the temperature data manipulators, homoginisors have been fighting hard to keep the temperature data flat even more so since the time between super el nino has gone sinse 98. They will find it harder to digusise their fraud as the el nino will be weak for some time and not create the great step

Poor ol rabbitoh08 is going to be upset my prediction came to fruition.

The 2014 El Niño is looking more and more like a bust

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/07/06/the-2014-el-nino-is-looking-more-and-more-...

Global Cooling is on its way
http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1404598898/0#0

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