polite_gandalf wrote on May 15
th, 2014 at 4:53pm:
The good scholar's musings are as simplistic and naive as those in the west who peddle the 'freedom vs autocrats' slogans.
The truth, as always, is far more complex.
Tunisia flared up quite literally when a hapless street vendor was ordered to close up shop and set himself alight. From there the revolution there maintained a distinctly economic emphasis. The overthrow of a corrupt dictator and the creation of a nascent democracy was really just by the way.
Egypt was somewhat similar, but had the additional injection of a renowned labor movement (the protests actually started in commemoration of a famous labor strike that was brutally suppressed by Mubarak), plus those facebook university youth instilled with all that western democracy. In fact, it was not too different to Tianamen Square, where the original peasant/laborer economic protestors were joined by uni student democrats. The key difference with Egypt was the existence of a sleeping giant - the muslim brotherhood, who sat out the revolution, only to seize power (democratically) in the aftermath. Realising what democracy actually meant, the facebook kids came back to the streets begging the generals to remove this abomination - which they gladly obliged.
Libya was the first case of the protestors resorting to violence from the start - and was really just a resumption of the old tribal split between Bengazi and Tripoli. This is the one place where the west did get involved - Libya was flat, sparse, with the opposing sides situated along nice easily defined lines. It was the perfect venue for US airpower to have maximum effect, for very little risk. Even so, the might of US air power was only just sufficient to compensate for breathtaking rebel incompetence and unexpected tenacity of the Gadaffi loyalists.
Bahrain was a sectarian protest - a long oppressed shiite majority rising up against the sunni monarchy. The royals were saved by Saudi tanks, and the shiite oppression continues to this day. The west was guilty only of being deafeningly silent over the Saudi and Bahraini atrocities, while screaming blue murder at the autocrats in Libya and Syria.
Yemen succeeded in forcing the removal of their dictator, but only after he caused a bloodbath. No serious democratic reforms have ensued, and the deomcratic protest movement was skillfully coopted by the Saudis and basically moulded into an islamist movement.
And of course we have Syria - perhaps started with genuine democracy protests, but quickly coopted by the islamists -pumped in from outside by the Saudis, keen to start a proxy war with Iran (Assad's regime is closely linked to Tehran). The US and the west have expressed and given at least in-principle support to the rebels (including the setting up by CIA of an arms-smuggling racket in Bengazi - which just demonstrates how closely entwined the Libyan rebels were/are with the US), but in reality that support has been lukewarm. The real foreign agitators - Saudi Arabia and Turkey have pretty much been left high and dry, no doubt expecting significant US intervention, but not getting it. Still, the west is culpable for not pushing as hard as they could have for a ceasefire and settlement along the lines Russia has been pushing for.
Given all you so eloquently relate I cannot help but feel that all that is merely the opening bars of a full symphony of disaster, a practice run for the mayhem ahead.
Nothing has really been settled, has it, turmoil still reigns all through the area, and the religion?
Sectarian anger is still extant, revenge and territorial attacks continue, and Egypt especially seems a ticking bomb.
Can there be peace between the Shiítes and the Sunni's, anywhere?
The Wahhabi's seem intent on provoking dissent in every nation on the planet, and they control the religious heart of Islam, with an iron hand too.
I'm reminded of that old song.."You ain't seen nothing yet"
Is there anywhere a moderating force, an Islamic "peace movement" trying to calm things?
I trust you realise by now I'm no bigot, I ask those questions with serious and open intent, I want to know because I simply
do not.
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