sir prince duke alevine wrote on Mar 24
th, 2014 at 7:35am:
Andrei.Hicks wrote on Mar 24
th, 2014 at 5:19am:
So it's only the entire rest of the country they've lost?
I predict next states to turn labor will be
Vic
Wa
Qld
NSW
I don't think qld will get it this time round, but with the stupidity witnessed in the lnp, securing three elections in a row should not occur.
NSW will also stay lib for the next election at least.
Due dates for next State and Territory elections:
Victoria: 29 November 2014 (4 years)
NSW: 28 March 2015 (4 years)
Queensland: no later than 20 June 2015 (3 years)
NT: 27 August 2016 (4 years)
ACT: 15 October 2016 (4 years)
WA: 11 March 2017 (4 years)
SA: 17 March 2018 (4 years)
Tasmania: 2018 (4 years)
If your list was interpreted in order, it would imply changes of government as follows:
Victoria: 2014
WA: 2017
Queensland: 2018
NSW: 2019
Not an unreasonable prediction. All four states are very likely to swing to Labor at their next elections. This will bring change to Victoria, the possibility of change to WA, and much-reduced Coalition margins in Queensland and NSW.
Victoria is very likely to ditch the Coalition in November. Labor has been ahead in the polls for two years and that is not likely to change any time soon. In the space of three years, the Coalition government has been embroiled in scandal and replaced a Premier mid-term. The government holds a one-seat majority with the support of a former Liberal who has become an independent and this has made the government quite unstable. This Coalition government has the stench of death about it and in November it will be given the
coup de grâce.
In WA, Barnett has jumped the shark with his unpopular and unjustified shark cull. It's too early to predict the result of the next WA election (which would be little more than an educated guess at this stage), but if the Liberals do win it will probably be their last term.
Newman in Queensland will make history, becoming a rare Premier to lose his own seat of Ashgrove at an election (assuming he does not switch to a safer seat in the meantime). The seat he holds has only been won by a Coalition party twice in thirty years, and numerous opinion polls all indicate that his chances of retaining the seat are low. Queensland are likely to return a decapitated LNP at the next election with a much-reduced majority. The following election will be close and any prediction on a winner at this stage is still a guess.
The Coalition in NSW may get some bad news out of ICAC that brings undone a Liberal or two. Political corruption is a problem in NSW and there's every indication that the troubles that have bedevilled Labor of late may also involve some Liberal party figures. Politics in NSW needs a good clean out to remove the taint. NSW Labor may yet have one or two more serving politicians involved as well. Until this matter is resolved it's too difficult to make predictions about the length of Parliamentary terms in NSW. The Liberals are in office for the time being and have the advantage of incumbency. They will give up a fair bit of that large margin at the next election but should be re-elected.
On the other side of the ledger, South Australia will probably become a Liberal state at the next SA election.
At the time of the next Federal election, my prediction is that the Labor states and territories will most likely be SA, Victoria and the ACT.