http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2014/01/05/go-home-arctic-youre-drunk/

This news from NASA 1999

'The flip-flop from cold to warm happens every few years, according to Shindell. But over the past 30 years, he said, the system has tended more toward strong winds and warming. And even during colder periods, temperatures have risen by several degrees. "Since the cycle is a natural phenomena," said Shindell, scientists have to ask, "is the increased warming part of the natural oscillation, or are humans causing the warming?" /

' "If we include the stratosphere in the climate model, we're finding that the increasing greenhouse gases lead to an enhanced polar vortex," said Shindell. It is the strengthened polar vortex that drives winds all the way from the stratosphere to the lower atmosphere, creating stronger westerlies and increasing the warm periods of the Arctic Oscillation, said Shindell. A realistic representation of the stratosphere, including the polar vortex, is typically not included in climate models. These results suggest that the impact of global warming may therefore be incompletely represented by most current models, with this altered circulation effect making for greater regional warming during wintertime.

Shindell's model predicts that if greenhouse gases continue to increase, winter in the Northern Hemisphere will continue to warm. "In our model, we're seeing a very large signal of global warming and it's not a naturally occurring thing. It's most likely linked to greenhouse gases," he said. '

http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/19990602/

from wiki-

'2002–2003 was an unusually cold winter in the Northern and Eastern USA.
2010–2011, persistent bitter cold in the entire eastern half of the USA from December onward, with few or no mid-winter warm-ups, and with cool conditions continuing into spring. La Niña and negative Arctic oscillation were strong factors. Heavy and persistent precipitation contributed to almost constant snow cover in the Northeastern US which finally receded in early May.'

So papers warning of cooling in winter from 2012 and 2013 are certainly projections based on hindcasting.

lee wrote on Jan 9^th, 2014 at 11:24am:

Throw in the phrase null hypothesis and youVe got yourself a party! 

# wrote on Jan 9^th, 2014 at 9:30am:

greggerypeccary wrote on Jan 9^th, 2014 at 10:28am:
Is it a "claim" or is it an opinion?

Isn't testing hypotheses part of scientific method? If a hypothesis is based on no "credible, reliable evidence", as you say, then why would you expect all bodies of reputable scientists to keep silent? Are you subscribing to lunatic conspiracy theories?

greggerypeccary wrote on Jan 9^th, 2014 at 3:10pm:
Nice try, but it's yet another of your lies, greggerypeccary. Just another of your attempts to distract.

In your own words, you deny "the existence of credible, reliable evidence to support the AGW hypothesis". Does any body of reputable scientists agree with you?

Given that the scientists report 95 to 100% confidence that global warming is Anthropogenic, what do you think you see that they are missing? Are you pretending to be better qualified, smarter or wiser than all those scientists?  What are your qualifications, greggerypeccary?

Are you saying that the vast majority of the best qualified are collaborating in some grand conspiracy? Are you saying that every body of reputable scientists is colluding with them?

These are simple questions, greggerypeccary. Surely, given your certainty that there is no "credible, reliable evidence to support the AGW hypothesis", you can give simple, honest answers.

# wrote on Jan 9^th, 2014 at 8:35pm:



Absolutely certain.

Otherwise you would have presented some by now.

Check mate.

muso wrote on Jan 10^th, 2014 at 7:13pm:



Fixed.