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Iceland's ice caps – the largest in Europe outside of Greenland – have waned 6 percent since 1995, with lower glaciers like Solheimajokull, an outlet of the Myrdalsjokull ice cap, shrinking much faster. Because Iceland’s warming began more than a decade later than in Europe and North America, that decline signals a very rapid change.
And with the melt rate speeding up as climate change effects intensify and feed off each other, Iceland could lose 30 percent of its glacial mass by 2050 according to Bjornsson.
If temperatures rise 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) by the end of the next century – the maximum acceptable increase set by nations at the United Nations climate talks – Bjornsson calculates that Iceland's glaciers will be no more than small "ice museums" atop the highest peaks as early as the mid-2100s.
'Nailed and tied it down'Artist Vigdis Bjarnadottir read an article in her morning paper last year about a new study by Bjornsson and colleagues predicting that the glacier she had grown up near – scenic Snaefellsjokull on the island's western peninsula – could be gone within 20 years.
"I was very shocked," said Bjarnadottir, who spent her childhood in the village of Olafsvik, at the foot of the rising glacier
"This is my favorite mountain. We can see it from Reykjavik on a good day, always so beautiful," said the retired presidential secretary, who now lives in Gardabaer, just south of the capital. The news inspired her to create a painting of the mountain, with tacks and strings crossing its glacial peaks.
"As we do not want the Snaefellsjokull Glacier to disappear," she declared emphatically, "I have nailed and tied it down."
The painting, exhibited in a western Iceland art exhibit last summer, also shows a half-man half-giant named Bardur Snaefellsas. According to Icelandic lore, Bardur was one of the region's earliest settlers, and descended into the glacier more than a century ago to become a guardian of the land. But the giant seems to be off-duty these days – the glacier already looks much smaller to Bjarnadottir.
"You are able to see new landscape, new black lava cliffs," she said "where there was ice some years ago."
Travel photos more than a century old provide stark illustration for Bjornsson. The pictures of southwestern glacier Kotarjokull were taken by English explorer Frederick W.W. Howell as he made the first ascent of Hvannadalshnukur, Iceland's highest peak, in 1891. Two years ago, researchers visited the same spots and took new photographs.
Comparing the old and new photos, Bjornsson and colleagues determined that Kotarjokull had lost 20 percent of its volume since Howell's visit. While ice remained at the glacier's top, lower areas that had been covered 120 years ago were now completely bare.
Tourism at riskThe land of fire and ice has become a growing tourist destination in recent years, with more than two-thirds of a million international visitors in 2012, according to the Icelandic Tourist Board. Lured by its glacial beauty and recreational opportunities, tourists spent a record 238 billion Icelandic kronur (about $2 billion U.S.) here last year, putting the industry second to fishing as the island's biggest foreign money-maker.
But the warming climate's assault is already evident at some popular attractions, such as Solheimajokull, where two would-be ice climbers from Germany stared dejectedly at the wind-swept dirt on that howling autumn day, then trudged back to their van and drove away.
Not all Icelanders see their country's shrinking glaciers as a bad thing. Glaciers historically posed a looming threat to nearby cities and farms, which lost land to advancing ice and were occasionally destroyed by sudden glacial outbursts called jokulhlaups, said University of Iceland engineer Finnur Palsson, a frequent collaborator on Bjornsson's research. As glaciers recede, he said, the danger from jokulhlaups may lessen.
"Also some very fertile land is coming from under the glaciers that can be utilized," said Palsson. "Another good thing from the energy point of view is there's more water to harness for the power stations."
And many Icelanders don't mind the weather being a little bit warmer.
Economic boon"In reality, the negative impacts are relatively few," Palsson said, "if you look at the point of view of us living here."
Indeed, thawing ice could provide a much-needed economic boon to this country still struggling to recover from its 2008 fiscal collapse. Iceland's president Olafur Ragnar Grimsson is promoting plans for a major sea port on the island's north-east coast to serve new shipping routes on the opening Arctic Ocean. The government hopes to make Iceland an Arctic business hub and trading partner for countries like China seeking the anticipated oil and gas bounty exposed by receding Arctic ice.
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