Australian Politics Forum - More global warming hilarity LOL

Innocent bystander Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 4220 Gender:	Re: More global warming hilarity LOL Reply #45 - Jan 2^nd, 2014 at 4:58pm Doctor Jolly wrote on Jan 2^nd, 2014 at 4:11pm: cods, your terminology is all wrong. There are two basic groups: 1) Scientists. 2) Deniers. You subscribe to one or the other. Wrong, its believers and unbelievers, same as the religious and the atheists, don't insult science by trying to hitch your wagon to it.
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Soren

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Re: More global warming hilarity LOL
Reply #46 - Jan 2^nd, 2014 at 7:05pm

muso wrote on Jan 2^nd, 2014 at 4:29pm:

Of course you yourself would never dream of anthropomorphising any inanimate objects now, would you?

Only if it's a helpless, vulnerable, exploited and easily bullied inanimate object.

Whether Antarctic ice is more extensive because of the less salty water or some other reason is yet another conjecture. With a very complex an poorly understood system like the climate, it is not difficult to come up with all sorts of plausible post-hoc conjectures.

Predicting more extensive ice on these grounds would have been more convincing. An AGW prediction actually coming to pass. But nobody has ever predicted that due to AGW there will be more extensive polar ice, even though the 'science' is so simple. It's forever been about disappearing ice. And now we have yet another Get Smart moment, with another post-hoc conjecture: 'Sorry about that Chief. Would you believe...."

Anyway, it's pretty funny to wake up to the new that a bunch of scientists (consensus ones, of course!) and activist warm-mongers are likely to be stuck in ice for a few weeks. Because of the vulnerable water. And the scientific consensus never saw it coming!

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« Last Edit: Jan 2^nd, 2014 at 7:17pm by Soren »

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Neferti Gold Member Offline Posts: 7965 Canberra Gender:	Re: More global warming hilarity LOL Reply #47 - Jan 2^nd, 2014 at 7:10pm Soren wrote on Jan 2^nd, 2014 at 7:05pm: muso wrote on Jan 2^nd, 2014 at 4:29pm: Of course you yourself would never dream of anthropomorphising any inanimate objects now, would you? Only if it's a helpless, vulnerable, exploited and easily bullied inanimate object. Like a pet rock?
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Soren

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Re: More global warming hilarity LOL
Reply #48 - Jan 2^nd, 2014 at 7:25pm

Neferti wrote on Jan 2^nd, 2014 at 7:10pm:

Soren wrote on Jan 2^nd, 2014 at 7:05pm:

muso wrote on Jan 2^nd, 2014 at 4:29pm:

Of course you yourself would never dream of anthropomorphising any inanimate objects now, would you?

Only if it's a helpless, vulnerable, exploited and easily bullied inanimate object.

Like a pet rock? Angry

No, not like a pet rock. They are not vulnerable enough.

Ode to my pet rock
By Insouciance

You sit there,
Grey.
Grey and cold.
I watched you from my bed and smile happily.
Ahh, my pet rock.
You are the most agreeable pet ever.
I never have to walk you.
You don't need a litter tray which I'd have to clean.
Not a noise nor a whimper comes from your sturdy frame.
Perfect pet.
I don't have to feed you.
Spend my hard earned dollar on suspicious meat products.
I can recite Shakespeare to you and you don't leave the room in a hurry.
Oh, my pet rock,
You rock.

There is character there. You can't easily bully something like that.

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Neferti

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Re: More global warming hilarity LOL
Reply #49 - Jan 2^nd, 2014 at 7:36pm

Soren wrote on Jan 2^nd, 2014 at 7:25pm:

Neferti wrote on Jan 2^nd, 2014 at 7:10pm:

Soren wrote on Jan 2^nd, 2014 at 7:05pm:

muso wrote on Jan 2^nd, 2014 at 4:29pm:

Of course you yourself would never dream of anthropomorphising any inanimate objects now, would you?

Only if it's a helpless, vulnerable, exploited and easily bullied inanimate object.

Like a pet rock? Angry

No, not like a pet rock. They are not vulnerable enough.

Ode to my pet rock
By Insouciance

You sit there,
Grey.
Grey and cold.
I watched you from my bed and smile happily.
Ahh, my pet rock.
You are the most agreeable pet ever.
I never have to walk you.
You don't need a litter tray which I'd have to clean.
Not a noise nor a whimper comes from your sturdy frame.
Perfect pet.
I don't have to feed you.
Spend my hard earned dollar on suspicious meat products.
I can recite Shakespeare to you and you don't leave the room in a hurry.
Oh, my pet rock,
You rock.

There is character there. You can't easily bully something like that.

Enya also rocks ... or used to.

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muso

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Re: More global warming hilarity LOL
Reply #50 - Jan 2^nd, 2014 at 8:22pm

Soren wrote on Jan 2^nd, 2014 at 7:05pm:

Predicting more extensive ice on these grounds would have been more convincing.

Soren, are you so far removed from what you are arguing against that you don't realise that 2013 is extremely early in the scheme of things? It might be part of an emerging pattern, but then again, it is probably a short term effect with a very specific cause. (more likely)

Anyway, far be it from me to interrupt you from doing what you do best. Would you like some more rope?

Just cling on to your patch of blue (see map below), click your heels together three times, close your eyes and keep repeating "There's no such thing as AGW". It will fill you with a nice warm comforting feeling.

Keep reading the Denialist blogs, but don't think too deeply about it, and above all, pay no attention to what that man behind the curtain is doing. He's the great and powerful Wizard of Watts.

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Soren

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Re: More global warming hilarity LOL
Reply #51 - Jan 2^nd, 2014 at 9:01pm

No need to read 'denialist' blogs (I don't, actually).

Nobody knows why, despite the predictions of melting polar caps, there is more polar ice than expected.

The less salty water idea is one guess. As you say, it's early days. Complex system, many unknown unknowns as well as known unknows and so forth.

Yet we know that it's all human made greenhouse gasses. We can't make accurate predictions based on this theory of AGW but still, the consensus is settled.

This strikes me as a little hasty, when considering the vast uncertainty about any of the details and the inability to make accurate predictions. On the other hand, there is no shortage of 'contrary to expectations' news - see warm-mongers trapped in ice, poley bears not nearing extinction, Himalayan snow not disappearing, sea levels nor rising as fast as predicted - there is some new variable every time predictions refuse to eventuate, there is some new, hitherto unmentioned explanation as to why predictions don't materialise, some new scientific explanation which, inexplicably, did not feature in the models. This less salty water is an excellent example.
It is a very basic fact that fresh water freezes before salt water. Yet none of the polar ice melting models devised by scientists seem to have taken it into account and made the prediction that this is how polar ice would increase. Why believe the models when they can't even take into consideration high school science? How reliable are those models? On past form, not very.

It's an endless 'well, would you believe...'

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muso

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Re: More global warming hilarity LOL
Reply #52 - Jan 2^nd, 2014 at 9:32pm

Soren wrote on Jan 2^nd, 2014 at 9:01pm:

It is a very basic fact that fresh water freezes before salt water. Yet none of the polar ice melting models devised by scientists seem to have taken it into account and made the prediction that this is how polar ice would increase. Why believe the models when they can't even take into consideration high school science?

None of them? I'm very impressed with your initimate knowledge of such models. Can you give me some examples of some "polar ice melting models" that don't take this into account?

Just two or three will do.

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Innocent bystander

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Re: More global warming hilarity LOL
Reply #53 - Jan 2^nd, 2014 at 9:40pm

muso wrote on Jan 2^nd, 2014 at 8:22pm:

Soren wrote on Jan 2^nd, 2014 at 7:05pm:

Predicting more extensive ice on these grounds would have been more convincing.

Soren, are you so far removed from what you are arguing against that you don't realise that 2013 is extremely early in the scheme of things? It might be part of an emerging pattern, but then again, it is probably a short term effect with a very specific cause. (more likely)

Anyway, far be it from me to interrupt you from doing what you do best. Would you like some more rope?

Just cling on to your patch of blue (see map below), click your heels together three times, close your eyes and keep repeating "There's no such thing as AGW". It will fill you with a nice warm comforting feeling.

Keep reading the Denialist blogs, but don't think too deeply about it, and above all, pay no attention to what that man behind the curtain is doing. He's the great and powerful Wizard of Watts.
http://www.ozpolitic.com/album/forum-attachments/5390b348-c2be-4363-806b-53e1dfd...

Thats nice, now prove that heat that is well within natural variation is actually caused by humans ... good luck with that Grin

Its nice that you've decided that AGW is real and its happening now because a number of people said so but the true disciples of science need a little more than that Wink

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muso

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Re: More global warming hilarity LOL
Reply #54 - Jan 2^nd, 2014 at 9:48pm

Innocent bystander wrote on Jan 2^nd, 2014 at 9:40pm:

muso wrote on Jan 2^nd, 2014 at 8:22pm:

Soren wrote on Jan 2^nd, 2014 at 7:05pm:

Predicting more extensive ice on these grounds would have been more convincing.

Soren, are you so far removed from what you are arguing against that you don't realise that 2013 is extremely early in the scheme of things? It might be part of an emerging pattern, but then again, it is probably a short term effect with a very specific cause. (more likely)

Anyway, far be it from me to interrupt you from doing what you do best. Would you like some more rope?

Just cling on to your patch of blue (see map below), click your heels together three times, close your eyes and keep repeating "There's no such thing as AGW". It will fill you with a nice warm comforting feeling.

Keep reading the Denialist blogs, but don't think too deeply about it, and above all, pay no attention to what that man behind the curtain is doing. He's the great and powerful Wizard of Watts.
http://www.ozpolitic.com/album/forum-attachments/5390b348-c2be-4363-806b-53e1dfd...

Thats nice, now prove that heat that is well within natural variation is actually caused by humans ... good luck with that Grin

Its nice that you've decided that AGW is real and its happening now because a number of people said so but the true disciples of science need a little more than that Wink

It's a consequence of the physical properties of carbon dioxide, water and other greenhouse gases in combination with the First Law of Thermodynamics. Very basic stuff to anyone with half a clue.

Now, how can you prove that the extra heat energy caused by the increased radiative forcing (plus feedbacks) is totally without consequence?

You are the one making extraordinary claims, so the onus is on you to explain why all the extra (measurable) energy has no consequences.

By the way, are you an expert on "polar ice melting models" too? Please don't be shy in sharing your knowledge.

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Innocent bystander Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 4220 Gender:	Re: More global warming hilarity LOL Reply #55 - Jan 2^nd, 2014 at 9:57pm And heres me thinking you'd come back with armfulls of peer reviewed scientific reports proving man made global warming beyond any doubt
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Soren

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Re: More global warming hilarity LOL
Reply #56 - Jan 2^nd, 2014 at 9:58pm

muso wrote on Jan 2^nd, 2014 at 9:32pm:

Soren wrote on Jan 2^nd, 2014 at 9:01pm:

It is a very basic fact that fresh water freezes before salt water. Yet none of the polar ice melting models devised by scientists seem to have taken it into account and made the prediction that this is how polar ice would increase. Why believe the models when they can't even take into consideration high school science?

None of them? I'm very impressed with your initimate knowledge of such models. Can you give me some examples of some "polar ice melting models" that don't take this into account?

Just two or three will do.

Who cares for models that 'take into consideration' something, yet miss the significance of said thing and so will not make reliable predictions.
This 'taken into consideration' yet mispredicting the actual event is becoming standard fare.

That is my model of warm-mongering and it is proving to have much greater predictive accuracy.

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muso

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Re: More global warming hilarity LOL
Reply #57 - Jan 3^rd, 2014 at 5:49am

Innocent bystander wrote on Jan 2^nd, 2014 at 9:57pm:

And heres me thinking you'd come back with armfulls of peer reviewed scientific reports proving man made global warming beyond any doubt

It's too basic and established for that. Arrhenius did the ground work back in the 19th century. You don't get many researchers trying to establish that gravity works. In the same way, radiative forcing is pretty basic stuff.

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muso

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Re: More global warming hilarity LOL
Reply #58 - Jan 3^rd, 2014 at 5:52am

Soren wrote on Jan 2^nd, 2014 at 9:58pm:

muso wrote on Jan 2^nd, 2014 at 9:32pm:

Soren wrote on Jan 2^nd, 2014 at 9:01pm:

It is a very basic fact that fresh water freezes before salt water. Yet none of the polar ice melting models devised by scientists seem to have taken it into account and made the prediction that this is how polar ice would increase. Why believe the models when they can't even take into consideration high school science?

None of them? I'm very impressed with your initimate knowledge of such models. Can you give me some examples of some "polar ice melting models" that don't take this into account?

Just two or three will do.

Who cares for models that 'take into consideration' something, yet miss the significance of said thing and so will not make reliable predictions.
This 'taken into consideration' yet mispredicting the actual event is becoming standard fare.

That is my model of warm-mongering and it is proving to have much greater predictive accuracy.

You think you'll get off with that very specific remark scot free?

Come on now, if you come out with this bold assertion that "none of the polar ice melting models devised by scientists seem to have taken it into account", then surely you can give some examples that illustrate your point?

Not even a Climate model with a resolution of one or two years? You'd probably call that a Weather Model, I suppose.

I'll settle for an admission of waffling, but be prepared to wear the appellation of "Wafflist"

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#

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A fool is certain: an
ignorant fool, absolutely
so

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Re: More global warming hilarity LOL
Reply #59 - Jan 3^rd, 2014 at 7:57am

Innocent bystander wrote on Jan 2^nd, 2014 at 4:58pm:

...
Wrong, its believers and unbelievers, same as the religious and the atheists, ...

I'd say it's accepters and deniers. Those who accept what the vast majority of the best qualified say and those whose fears prevent them from accepting.

Innocent bystander wrote on Jan 2^nd, 2014 at 9:57pm:

And heres me thinking you'd come back with armfulls of peer reviewed scientific reports proving man made global warming beyond any doubt ...

What is beyond any doubt?

The question is; is your denial reasonable?

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