Coalition's WA slump spurs Senate fears for Tony Abbott
Dennis Shanahan, Political Editor
The Australian
December 28, 2013
Prime Minister Tony Abbott has lost support in WA, Newspoll figures show.
VOTER support for Tony Abbott's Coalition has slumped in Western Australia since the election and a dramatic rise for Labor and independents will threaten the Liberal hold on three Senate seats and the ability to repeal the carbon tax if the High Court orders a new Senate election in the state next year.
According to the latest Newspoll analysis of state-by-state and demographic voting support in the past three months, conducted exclusively for The Weekend Australian, the Abbott government's first 100 days have ended with a drop in Western Australia of 10 percentage points from its election primary vote of 51.2 per cent to 41 per cent.
Labor's primary vote support in the state has risen from 28.8 per cent at the election to 36 per cent and support for "others" has gone from 10.3 per cent to 13 per cent.
On a two-party-preferred basis, using preference flows at the September election, Labor and the Coalition are even on 50 per cent, compared with the election result of 58.3 to the Coalition against Labor's 41.7 per cent.
Federal Liberals believe the Abbott government is suffering collateral damage from the plunging popularity of Premier Colin Barnett and his Liberal government. In reaction to the poll slide in Western Australia, the Prime Minister told The Weekend Australian that if there was a new Senate election, it would be a referendum on the repeal of the carbon and mining taxes, which were "anti-Western Australia taxes" in the minerals-rich state.
Mr Barnett has conceded his government has had a "rough time" since the state election in March, amid unpopular budget cuts and "deferred election promises". State Newspoll surveys show Mr Barnett is at his most unpopular level since he became Premier in 2008 and primary-vote support for the government has fallen by nine percentage points since the state election.
In the three months since the September 7 federal election, Coalition support has dropped in every mainland state, among men and women and in every age group, while Labor has picked up support everywhere except South Australia.
In that state, both the major parties have lost ground to the independents and Greens and, significantly, in Western Australia, independents have picked up a large slice of the Coalition's lost support.
In the Senate in Western Australia, the September 7 result returned three Coalition senators, Defence Minister David Johnston, Assistant Minister for Immigration and Border Protection Michaelia Cash and Linda Reynolds. One Labor Senator, Joe Bullock, was elected in the fourth spot.
The final two Senate spots initially went to Palmer United Party candidate Zhenya Wang and Labor's Louise Pratt but they were replaced by the Greens' Scott Ludlam and Australian Sports Party's Wayne Dropulich after a Greens-instigated recount.
The entire election is now being challenged after it was revealed that 1370 votes went missing during the recount.
Senior Liberals fear a fresh election opens the possibility that minor-party candidates could increase their vote as electors face a tablecloth-sized ballot paper as the minor parties line up to contest the re-run, including WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange.
The Abbott government, which faces opposition from Labor and the Greens on the repeal of the carbon tax, holds 33 votes in the new Senate based on the last result.
This would require the Coalition to win the support of six of eight crossbench senators to have legislation passed that was opposed by Labor and the Greens, which hold a combined 35 votes.
The dramatic fall in Coalition support since the election and rise in Labor and independent support would put the Liberals at risk if an election were held in March next year.
Mr Abbott told The Weekend Australian that he would not comment on the adjudication of the Court of Disputed Returns.
"But if there were to be a new poll in Western Australia, it would be a referendum on the carbon tax and the mining tax because its crystal clear that if you vote Labor you will keep the carbon tax and you will keep the mining tax and both taxes are anti-Western Australia taxes," the Prime Minister said.
The Coalition's fall in support in Western Australia is its biggest state fall since the election.
South Australia, hit by automotive industry closures, is the second worst state, where the primary vote fell from 44.9 per cent at the election to 42 per cent.
Labor's support in South Australia, where the state Labor government is unpopular, also fell.
It was 35.7 per cent at the election and is now 33 per cent while the "others" rose from 11.1 per cent in September to 16 per cent.
There was little movement in the other mainland states for either major party on primary vote.
But on second preferences, apart from Western Australia, Queensland showed a lift for Labor from 43 per cent to 46 per cent while the Coalition's support fell from 57 to 54 per cent.
Satisfaction with Mr Abbott as prime minister was well above the level for Kevin Rudd in the three months before the election and he has
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