Australian Politics Forum - Six aspects of denial

muso

Gold Member

Offline

Posts: 13151
Gladstone, Queensland
Gender: male

Re: Six aspects of denial
Reply #60 - Dec 18^th, 2013 at 9:25pm

gizmo_2655 wrote on Dec 18^th, 2013 at 1:11pm:

# wrote on Dec 18^th, 2013 at 12:37pm:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Dec 18^th, 2013 at 9:58am:

...
You mean like ALL the warns from the US National Weather service???
...

What do you think you see there?

Last 30 Days Nov 17 - Dec 16, 2013 446 618 2,699 840 1,805 1,168

2699 low temperature records matched or set for that period.

- and you fail to make the connection with this?

http://news.nationalgeographic.com.au/news/2013/03/130326-arctic-sea-ice-global-...

Back to top

1523 people like this. The remaining 7,134,765,234 do not

IP Logged

BatteriesNotIncluded

Gold Member

Offline

MediocrityNET: because
people died for this!

Posts: 26966

Re: Six aspects of denial
Reply #61 - Dec 18^th, 2013 at 11:04pm

muso wrote on Dec 18^th, 2013 at 9:25pm:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Dec 18^th, 2013 at 1:11pm:

# wrote on Dec 18^th, 2013 at 12:37pm:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Dec 18^th, 2013 at 9:58am:

...
You mean like ALL the warns from the US National Weather service???
...

What do you think you see there?

Last 30 Days Nov 17 - Dec 16, 2013 446 618 2,699 840 1,805 1,168

2699 low temperature records matched or set for that period.

- and you fail to make the connection with this?

http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2007/images/arctic_sea_ice_extent6_sm.jpg

http://news.nationalgeographic.com.au/news/2013/03/130326-arctic-sea-ice-global-...

playing devils advocate for once: doesn't the above graph simply mean the model in question was made in the 1950s!??!

Back to top

*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is. It wouldn't be there without the tax payer. Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know.... (swaggy) *

IP Logged

muso

Gold Member

Offline

Posts: 13151
Gladstone, Queensland
Gender: male

Re: Six aspects of denial
Reply #62 - Dec 19^th, 2013 at 4:57am

The model is not the important part. It's the observational data.

Models can be run retrospectively.

Part of that second link:

Quote:

Is Shrinking Sea Ice Behind Chilly Spring?
Melting Arctic ice may be making winters colder and longer, scientists say.
Sea ice in the Gulf of St. Lawrence.

Sea ice forms in Canada's Gulf of St. Lawrence in February 2013.

Image courtesy Jeff Schmaltz, MODIS/USGS/NASA

Daniel Stone

National Geographic News

Published March 26, 2013

First it was the fault of Punxsutawney Phil, the groundhog who mistakenly forecasted a quick end to winter. Now climate scientists are saying that Arctic sea ice—or the lack of it—is a driving force behind the Northern Hemisphere's unseasonably cold spring.

As Northern Hemisphere temperatures remain below normal more than a week into the official start of spring, a team of meteorologists and climate scientists are pointing to recent research that suggests sea ice cover is a likely culprit.

Recent imaging from the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center showed a historic minimum in Arctic ice cover last fall, and current data reveals that sea ice cover—which recently reached its maximum for the year—is at its sixth lowest extent in the satellite record. (Related: "Arctic Sea Ice Hits Record Low—Extreme Weather to Come?")

So Gizmo, I agree that those records show a general lack of agreement with your strawman that there must be a totally uniform rise in temperature in every corner of the globe, even for short timescales of 1 year.

Nice try, but the climate will never work in accordance with your strawman. You must admit, but as strawmen go, yours is extremely crude and simplistic.

Back to top

« Last Edit: Dec 19^th, 2013 at 5:04am by muso »

1523 people like this. The remaining 7,134,765,234 do not

IP Logged

gizmo_2655

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 16010
South West NSW
Gender: male

Re: Six aspects of denial
Reply #63 - Dec 19^th, 2013 at 9:48am

muso wrote on Dec 19^th, 2013 at 4:57am:

The model is not the important part. It's the observational data.

Models can be run retrospectively.

Part of that second link:

Quote:

Is Shrinking Sea Ice Behind Chilly Spring?
Melting Arctic ice may be making winters colder and longer, scientists say.
Sea ice in the Gulf of St. Lawrence.

Sea ice forms in Canada's Gulf of St. Lawrence in February 2013.

Image courtesy Jeff Schmaltz, MODIS/USGS/NASA

Daniel Stone

National Geographic News

Published March 26, 2013

First it was the fault of Punxsutawney Phil, the groundhog who mistakenly forecasted a quick end to winter. Now climate scientists are saying that Arctic sea ice—or the lack of it—is a driving force behind the Northern Hemisphere's unseasonably cold spring.

As Northern Hemisphere temperatures remain below normal more than a week into the official start of spring, a team of meteorologists and climate scientists are pointing to recent research that suggests sea ice cover is a likely culprit.

Recent imaging from the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center showed a historic minimum in Arctic ice cover last fall, and current data reveals that sea ice cover—which recently reached its maximum for the year—is at its sixth lowest extent in the satellite record. (Related: "Arctic Sea Ice Hits Record Low—Extreme Weather to Come?")

So Gizmo, I agree that those records show a general lack of agreement with your strawman[/b] that there must be a totally uniform rise in temperature in [b]every corner of the globe, even for short timescales of 1 year.

Nice try, but the climate will never work in accordance with your strawman. You must admit, but as strawmen go, yours is extremely crude and simplistic.

What 'strawman' are you talking about??

My whole point in this thread is that information posted by Watts (that there have been record low temperatures set across a large part of the US) is correct, and supported by other groups.
That's IT, no comment on his conclusion, just on the data posted.

Back to top

"I just get sick of people who place a label on someone else with their own definition.

It's similar to a strawman fallacy"
Bobbythebat

IP Logged

muso

Gold Member

Offline

Posts: 13151
Gladstone, Queensland
Gender: male

Re: Six aspects of denial
Reply #64 - Dec 19^th, 2013 at 10:56am

It might well be, but it's posted with the intention of implying that it is not supported by IPCC data or that it somehow contradicts it. Two posters on here have already caught that spin.

He cherry picks data, papers and findings. I doubt if you can find anything on his site that confirms AGW in any way, but of course there are many papers that do.

Back to top

1523 people like this. The remaining 7,134,765,234 do not

IP Logged

Chimp_Logic

Gold Member

Offline

πολιτικός

Posts: 4826
Mawson Base
Gender: male

Re: Six aspects of denial
Reply #65 - Dec 19^th, 2013 at 10:59am

BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Dec 18^th, 2013 at 11:04pm:

muso wrote on Dec 18^th, 2013 at 9:25pm:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Dec 18^th, 2013 at 1:11pm:

# wrote on Dec 18^th, 2013 at 12:37pm:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Dec 18^th, 2013 at 9:58am:

...
You mean like ALL the warns from the US National Weather service???
...

What do you think you see there?

Last 30 Days Nov 17 - Dec 16, 2013 446 618 2,699 840 1,805 1,168

2699 low temperature records matched or set for that period.

- and you fail to make the connection with this?

http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2007/images/arctic_sea_ice_extent6_sm.jpg

http://news.nationalgeographic.com.au/news/2013/03/130326-arctic-sea-ice-global-...

playing devils advocate for once: doesn't the above graph simply mean the model in question was made in the 1950s!??!

Not necessarily

Models predict data and trends of the past.

In fact, a good way of validating the accuracy of a model is to examine how accurate its predictions are for previous data/trends.

So this model could have been developed last week - it really doesn't matter when. You run the model and stack up its simulation accuracy with respect to all the data you have at the time.

You are then in a position to run the model forward in time and make projections and predictions (with the appropriate error bars).

And this is where it becomes tricky. The further the model is run into the future, the more uncertainty there is with its predictions.

Back to top

Mini Ice Age (2014-2029)
Dr Sircus cures cancer with Baking Soda and Magnesium - Jethro the MENTAL GIANT & his flute madness

IP Logged

muso Gold Member Offline Posts: 13151 Gladstone, Queensland Gender:	Re: Six aspects of denial Reply #66 - Dec 19^th, 2013 at 11:05am Soren wrote on Dec 18^th, 2013 at 12:58pm: I don't buy AGW for epistemological reasons. You assume that AGW can only be predicted using models. You're making conclusions about epistemology from the viewpoint of a barren epistemological wasteland. Paraphrased - You don't have a clue.
Back to top	1523 people like this. The remaining 7,134,765,234 do not IP Logged

lee

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 21603
Gender: male

Re: Six aspects of denial
Reply #67 - Dec 19^th, 2013 at 11:13am

Muso "Despite that, I won't suddenly forget basic atmospheric physics."

That's good; but remember Climate Sensitivity is not basic physics. (I read that elsewhere.)

There have been doubts expressed about CO2 levels in 'young' ice due to bubbles moving. What are he error bars like? How accurate are the data for ice under 400 years?

I know that there is now a calculation that reflects braodly the ice core data; but if the ice core data is wrong then the calculation of necessity is also wrong.

Running models retrospectively is called hindcasting isn't it?

Back to top

IP Logged

Chimp_Logic Gold Member Offline πολιτικός Posts: 4826 Mawson Base Gender:	Re: Six aspects of denial Reply #68 - Dec 19^th, 2013 at 11:44am In fact you can see from the graph that muso posted, that the standard deviation increases from the 1950s to the 2050s.
Back to top	« Last Edit: Dec 20^th, 2013 at 9:05am by Chimp_Logic » Mini Ice Age (2014-2029) Dr Sircus cures cancer with Baking Soda and Magnesium - Jethro the MENTAL GIANT & his flute madness IP Logged

BatteriesNotIncluded Gold Member Offline MediocrityNET: because people died for this! Posts: 26966	Re: Six aspects of denial Reply #69 - Dec 20^th, 2013 at 3:09am Chimp_Logic wrote on Dec 19^th, 2013 at 11:44am: In fact you an see from the graph that muso posted, that the standard deviation increases from the 1950s to the 2050s. I will scratch my monkey had for awhile and maybe smoke a durrie or two whilst snacking on these food items for thought, cheers!
Back to top	Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is. It wouldn't be there without the tax payer. Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know.... (swaggy) IP Logged

Chimp_Logic

Gold Member

Offline

πολιτικός

Posts: 4826
Mawson Base
Gender: male

Re: Six aspects of denial
Reply #70 - Dec 20^th, 2013 at 9:04am

BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Dec 20^th, 2013 at 3:09am:

Chimp_Logic wrote on Dec 19^th, 2013 at 11:44am:

In fact you an see from the graph that muso posted, that the standard deviation increases from the 1950s to the 2050s.

I will scratch my monkey had for awhile and maybe smoke a durrie or two whilst snacking on these food items for thought, cheers!

what do you mean?

Back to top

monkey_arse1_006.jpg (145 KB | 29 )

Mini Ice Age (2014-2029)
Dr Sircus cures cancer with Baking Soda and Magnesium - Jethro the MENTAL GIANT & his flute madness

IP Logged

BatteriesNotIncluded

Gold Member

Offline

MediocrityNET: because
people died for this!

Posts: 26966

Re: Six aspects of denial
Reply #71 - Dec 21^st, 2013 at 3:14am

Chimp_Logic wrote on Dec 20^th, 2013 at 9:04am:

BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Dec 20^th, 2013 at 3:09am:

Chimp_Logic wrote on Dec 19^th, 2013 at 11:44am:

In fact you an see from the graph that muso posted, that the standard deviation increases from the 1950s to the 2050s.

I will scratch my monkey had for awhile and maybe smoke a durrie or two whilst snacking on these food items for thought, cheers!

what do you mean?

Monkey head... bloody typos: i will scratch my monkey head but now i realise how gross that sounds lol.... too tired! Ill interpret this graph stuff you were saying maybe over the weekend!

Back to top

*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is. It wouldn't be there without the tax payer. Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know.... (swaggy) *

IP Logged

gizmo_2655

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 16010
South West NSW
Gender: male

Re: Six aspects of denial
Reply #72 - Dec 21^st, 2013 at 1:26pm

BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Dec 21^st, 2013 at 3:14am:

Chimp_Logic wrote on Dec 20^th, 2013 at 9:04am:

BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Dec 20^th, 2013 at 3:09am:

Chimp_Logic wrote on Dec 19^th, 2013 at 11:44am:

In fact you an see from the graph that muso posted, that the standard deviation increases from the 1950s to the 2050s.

I will scratch my monkey had for awhile and maybe smoke a durrie or two whilst snacking on these food items for thought, cheers!

what do you mean?

Monkey head... bloody typos: i will scratch my monkey head but now i realise how gross that sounds lol.... too tired! Ill interpret this graph stuff you were saying maybe over the weekend!

Yeah, those 3 monkeys you have are a problem...See No Reality, Hear No Reality and Speak No Reality...

Back to top

"I just get sick of people who place a label on someone else with their own definition.

It's similar to a strawman fallacy"
Bobbythebat

IP Logged

Chimp_Logic

Gold Member

Offline

πολιτικός

Posts: 4826
Mawson Base
Gender: male

Re: Six aspects of denial
Reply #73 - Dec 21^st, 2013 at 11:20pm

BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Dec 21^st, 2013 at 3:14am:

Chimp_Logic wrote on Dec 20^th, 2013 at 9:04am:

BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Dec 20^th, 2013 at 3:09am:

Chimp_Logic wrote on Dec 19^th, 2013 at 11:44am:

In fact you an see from the graph that muso posted, that the standard deviation increases from the 1950s to the 2050s.

I will scratch my monkey had for awhile and maybe smoke a durrie or two whilst snacking on these food items for thought, cheers!

what do you mean?

Monkey head... bloody typos: i will scratch my monkey head but now i realise how gross that sounds lol.... too tired! Ill interpret this graph stuff you were saying maybe over the weekend!

...forgiven

Namaste

Back to top

Mini Ice Age (2014-2029)
Dr Sircus cures cancer with Baking Soda and Magnesium - Jethro the MENTAL GIANT & his flute madness

IP Logged